The latest bear posts sounds just like 2015-2020 never happened. I assume they will sound the same in 2025. For your own sake I recommend you post actual predictions for Q4, then return and see where you went wrong...

No, I didn't know that. Are they fast and as available as the Tesla supercharging stations? Most of the non tesla charging stations I've used are pointless because they are slow and rarely available due to the fact that they are slow, so people hog them. The other great thing about Tesla Superchargers is that you can map to them and see how many are available at anytime from your car.

Maybe car companies would want to make their own, so they can charge money to charge the cars they sell? (not sure if this is profitable or not)

Seems like they have problems with demand again. Model S/X 8-12weeks delivery in California.

"We are fortunate to have the high-class problem of demand being quite a bit higher than production this quarter.

To ensure that we have the best possible outcome and earn the trust of the customers and investors who have placed their faith and hard-earned money with us, we need to increase production for the remainder of the quarter as much as possible.

I would only send this note if it really mattered.

Btw, please send me a note directly if you see ways to improve output, but feel that your voice is not being heard."

Elon

Sounds like he’s prepping the “production constrained!” excuse for a miss on 500k. Also, doesn’t that imply they weren’t production constrained in previous quarters (one of the core pillars of the bull narrative)? LOL

Right on cue. Should be good for one final pump into next week

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk

S/X lines shutting down for 18 days

Toyota already did this 2012:

And 2014:

And 2017:

And 2018:



I would not hold my breath for Toyota Solid State batteries. And FWIW I think QuantumScape is super over valued. Batteries is not gonna be a high margin business, solid state is not that much better than next gen batteries anyway and cost per kilowatt is the relevant factor. The high margin products are high integrated products and software, not parts. But hey, if you missed the train on Tesla and want to recover some of that lost face, Nikola, Nio, QuantumScape etc sure look very attractive!

In a new email this week, Tesla told employees working on those production lines that they would be shutdown between December 24 to January 11.

Is this supposed to be news? It's pretty standard for companies around here to have a holiday shutdown. Good on them.

Nah, it’s just bears looking for cracks and jumping at everything they see and take them out of context. It might be slightly longer than expected which could mean anything from no demand, problems at supply, doing a refresh, prioritizing Model Y, 500k in the bag etc. Or nothing at all. Some lazy people thinks that whatever happens that implies that they were right and the other people were wrong.

They don't rly shut down lines for no reason (especially if they're supply constrained like elon says?) and certainly not just to give ppl time off. Btw workers get a week off and then are encouraged to "volunteer" in other areas

Could be a) refreshing s/x ahead of 2021 (bullish) or b) reworking lines wrt the suspension issue nhtsa is supposedly looking into and what led to recall in China (bearish)

Heltok for ur toyota post do you see how you can do the same thing with tesla and FSD over the last several years? If your answer is "they did FSD and it's done" then idk what to say

all those toyota articles you posted say they are targeting solid state battery production for 2021+. seems like they are doing exactly that?

They've been gearing up for S Plaid for months and they've been running at full or near full (over full if you believe that tent is temporary) for over a year by now so their lines are almost certainly overdue for an overhaul or at least significant maintenance.

That and it's very likely Tesla's suppliers are also retooling for post-Covid production, a shut down now CAN make a lot of sense and I wouldn't read much into it.

Solid State has been a few years away so many times. Maybe 2021 will be the year the prototype is finally revealed, but I would be very surprised if we see solid state batteries in 100k+ vehicles before 2023. It’s like the Tesla killers that were gonna come out next year for the last 5 years. It’s talk, not action.

FSD sure it has been vaporwary. But we have seen increasing progress towards it meanwhile with NOA etc and now we finally have a release to customers and email indicates that the holiday software release will include FSD for all US customers. So even though FSD had vaporware potential it finally seems that there was something real behind it. Bears can still argue that Tesla is drawing dead, Waymo and Cruise is so far ahead etc. But at least it’s not vaporware and it’s actually in production to real customers today.

Maybe. Maybe not. And even if they do, will the battery actually be better(longer range, more cycles, cheaper, meaningfully faster charge rate in real life) than competition? I am not certain. And when will it be out in high volume? Until then it is just talk that we have heard so many times before...

i'm not certain either since i am not a battery scientist at toyota.

but i don't own a competitor trading at 1000 times earnings, so there's no real downside of me not knowing.

Why would you have this perspective about Toyota who hasn't made any false promises and provided a realistic schedule. but for whatever reason you completely buy into everything Tesla says when they haven't delivered on a single promise

It's like talking to people about Trump

Yeah, they have made very little substantial claims. But strangely they are far ahead of Tesla according to bears. I am just speculating about the future, which is uncertain. Feel free to make your own predictions for the number of solid state batteries in vehicles will be shipped before 2023.

Realistic schedule for what? How many gigawatt hours by when? Tesla has a pretty clear schedule,

that we can hold them to and see if they fall behind or not. What has Toyota said?

FWIW I assume Tesla means 100GWh/year rate by end of 2022, not during 2022. So 2023 should be >100GWh.

Why not? It's worked with all of their other "schedules".

Has anybody (here) said that?

https://www.greencarreports.com/news...executive-says
Toyota remains on track to being limited production of solid-state batteries for electric cars in 2025, Keiji Kaita, executive Vice President of the automaker's powertrain division, and field general manager of its battery division, said in an interview with Automotive News.

Engineers have built working prototype batteries, and have mounted them in a "running concept vehicle," Kaita said.

The prototype cells have a thin, pouch-shaped design, and are arranged in modules within a battery pack, according to Automotive News.

Toyota and Panasonic are working on battery tech together, but Panasonic has separately said that solid-state tech isn't coming until the later part of the decade.

dude has tesla ever hit ANY of their "schedules"? have you "held them to" any of the previous failures?? why on earth would this one be different

6 years ago they said they were gonna ship 500k cars in 2020:
https://cleantechnica.com/2014/11/07...evs-year-2020/
(They sold 31,655 In 2014)

Maybe they will miss the goal by a percent or two, I think they will make it, we will see in a few weeks.

What are your predictions for Q4 and 2021?

26.5 =/ 1 or 2

China sales:



Nice semantics bending skillz you got there. If only you could find a way to convert them into alpha.

Some gems I saw today:

"TSLA never goes down"

"TSLA holders never sell. We'll die with TSLA."

"A company which has the ability to hit $10 trillion market cap by 2030. Must think long term."