Of course they do. They'll get right on that as soon as they finish up with the self-driving-taxi stuff. Coming Soon!!

still got 21 days for those 1million robotaxis left!

he moving to texas. dumping shares in january for that sweet sweet 0% tax? also they announce $5b cap raise shares to be sold "from time to time" and they dump them all in one day (yesterday)

in other news:


thought tsla was 10 yrs ahead tho?

I based my statement off your whole posting history itt, and nothing I said was passive aggressive or an attack. Do better man.

Is triggered posting counter arguments to comments made, or pretending to be offended because someone disagreed with you?

Yes! This is very well said.

So I know I'm about 3 weeks late on this. Does it make sense to buy Tesla and sell later this month or early January when index funds and ETFs that track the S&P 500 will be buying a lot of shares? Thanks for any thoughts.

I've barely posted in this thread, only to give my take on the Model 3 as far as I know. I've honestly leaned towards the bear case the whole time, which is why I never bought Tesla stock (aside from quick momentum trades for giggles). But its clearly a bloodbath for the shorts at this point.

Plus, I was asking questions in my original post. Is Tesla not positioned to be more than a car company? what am I missing?

And if thinking their cars are awesome makes me a bull, then guilty as charged.

I remember when everyone was shitting on Amazon in the present tense (in 2008 or so) because they refused to take a profit quarter after quarter and people were convinced they would never make a profit. "omg they're not profitable! They're aimless! Their overhead is too expensive and they're biting off way more than they can chew!" At that point I did buy a lot of Amazon stock and I'm up over 400% on those trades currently. I say this, knowing full well I was mostly just lucky.

I'm honestly curious if there's potential for Tesla to be succesful at some point. I also say this, knowing that most people are horrible judges of the future because of 'presentism'. We only know what we know now, with limited information, and can't see how the landscape will change over longer periods of time.

Battery Day was the first time I thought to myself, "maybe Tesla will pull this off?"

I agree with most of the negative posts in this thread, but at a certain point, you have to wonder how long this will continue. Whats stopping Tesla from continuing the con? What does the epic downfall really look like? What happens exactly?

(I tried to do better)

Never is a long time. I think you will be wrong on this one. He did say that, that is true, but I don’t think he meant it literally but figuratively. And people do change their minds. Jobs said similar things and look at what Apple are doing now. We will see!

I guess we disagree here. I think they have around 20-25% margins that will rapidly increase with higher more FSD features shipped.

How much profit/losses do you think they will make in Q4 and which metric on their income statement do you define as profit/losses?

I'm guessing they make about as much profit as reg credits they take

Ok I will take the over on that. By about $1B. But please define your terms so you can update your model when we get results, otherwise we both can angle shoot to not have feedback any loss to our model.

Going a similar route. However planning to do a few days prior to inclusion (how index funds are going to transition is opaque to me). And another set if price is higher after Q4 delivery numbers or financials are out. Think Q4/Q1 is peak.

There are plenty of strong bear cases for TSLA. This is not one of them. Telsa obviously spends a lot on R&D, including batteries. If this is the base of your bear case, then I encourage you to do more research. With that said, there have been plenty of companies that spend a lot on R&D that ultimately fail to meet profit expectations. So, like I said, there are strong bear arguments out there.

Quantify "a lot"

A lot compared to what? Other car companies? Other battery companies? Other innovative tech companies?

The answer is a definitive No for every single comparison

If you truly believe they spend a lot on R&D, I encourage you to do more research.

Tesla loses money (excluding regulatory credits, which are projected to drop by half next year and continue to dry up over time) because they are structurally unprofitable, not because they’re investing in future growth. They have cut capex and R&D significantly, and pale in comparison to competitors. The auto industry is a shitty, competitive, low-margin business, and Tesla’s true gross margins are ~15%, no better than the rest of the auto industry: https://mobile.twitter.com/WallStCyn...51444799954944

As for future potential, independent experts and observers have largely rejected their claims of superiority across the board—in autonomy, manufacturing competency, service and repairs—so basically it comes down to whether you take Space Karen at his word. With a proven track record that includes:
- faking the solar roof tile to bailout SolarCity
- promising full autonomy would be ready by the end of 2017, then 2018, 2019, 2020, and now 2021. Meanwhile their “self-driving” tech is the laughingstock of the industry—years behind Waymo, Cruise, Mobileye, etc.
- faking the largest buyout in corporate history
- many credible accusations of accounting irregularities, warranty fraud, etc.
- attacking whistleblowers and short sellers, and firing anyone who disagrees with him

Peruse https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSLAQ and https://elonmusk.today/ and for plenty more. With that basic fact pattern, why would you put any faith in Elon’s word, at Battery Day or anywhere else? Even at Battery Day, Elon said their new prototype was “close to working”, which is Musk-speak for “not even close to ready for testing, let alone production”.

Meanwhile, Tesla’s revenue has been declining in the U.S. and Europe—they’ve only been able to show growth because of their new China factory this year. There’s no new China for them to tap for more low-hanging growth. Model Y was promised to sell better than all their other models combined, but lack of any hype about reservation numbers, high observed inventory levels, and obfuscation in their financial statements (combining sales of 3 and Y) all point to a lackluster debut.

Tesla had some tech advantages historically, by designing an electric car from the ground up, but most of their advantages are illusory and often involve simply taking on more risk than their competitors (running their batteries with less buffer than other companies [higher fire risk], using non-automotive-grade touchscreen [big warranty issues], gaming the EPA range estimates, marketing level 2 driver-assist technology as “Autopilot”). They’re using the same batteries from Panasonic and CATL that any other manufacturer can buy as well.

Competing auto manufacturers have now caught up, and are investing tens of billions of dollars more in EVs. In short, rather than the next AMZN or AAPL, Tesla appears poised to be the AOL or PalmPilot of EVs.

The idea alone that a single company - no matter how well funded or led, let alone Tesla - could corner a commodity like cars is the main bear case against Tesla.
Sure Tesla may become a regular, profitable car company but it will be valued 10 x less when it does.

Don't you need to factor in the Saving The World Premium? Makes Tesla worth a lot more.

My bull case is the # and level of irrationality of investors I think bears really have underestimated and continue to do so. These people have a lot of money and are very emotionally tied to the company. At least the ones I've talked too.

So I'm ok w/ a very small position at certain price levels under $500.

Plus Elon is a cool guy.

Truth.

Yeah, I've never bought that either.

But are they not primed to be an energy company as well? What other car companies plan to produce their own batteries and provide solar/powerwalls/etc? Also, what about the charging network? Is Chevy working on their own charging network right now? Are any of the old car companies?

I feel like in the end we're just going to get Kansas City shuffled by Toyota.

Just one anecdote to illustrate what I'm talking about.

A person at work who has let's just say a pretty sizable position and adds to it every quarter.

His exact words about the stock a couple days ago:

"I wouldn't call it overextended. This is new age disruptive market. Old metrics doesn't define this."

Did you know there are far more non-Tesla charging stations in the US then there are Tesla ones? Why would a car company make their own?

They are not.
What other car companies plan to mine and refine their own aluminum?
None of them because they're not drongos? Musk knows this too which is why he lied to Tesla shareholders to get them to buy out imminently bankrupt SolarCity before it dragged down his reputation and family wealth. Solar as a business is dead. Solar Roofs are worthless as a business. Powerwalls are commodity items with a rebranded name and no profit in them, ever. Especially where there is 5+ years of battery shortages ahead.
Care companies are all involved in a number of global consortiums creating open charging standards.They greatly number outnumber Tesla's chargers and the latest wave they are installing are faster.
Yes, all of them.

Sadly you do nowadays given the ESG movement. Feelings now factor into P/E ratios.