Has anyone done any numbers on what FSD might be worth and what percentage of people would actually find the value in it? I mean, for the average person just using their vehicle to commute, I don't think I would see any value in paying extra when I'm already in the car anyway. I guess for bus, trucking, delivery etc there is value in it but there is also a whole slew of other logistical issues to replace the job of the driver which doesn't involve the actual driving part. I have a very hard time imagining them getting to the point where it isn't only capable but also proven on a scale where it can be trusted to not make any mistakes, ever.

Nah, my loose definition is of “making”. Which of the following do you think will be below +$1B in Q4?
1. Income from Operations
2. Adjusted EBITDA
3. Net income attributable to common stockholders (non-GAAP)
4. Free Cash Flow


It’s not rocket science. 2M cars/year. $10k upgrade. 30% take rate=
$6B/year. PE=50. Value $300B.

I can see progress and with progress eventually you get very far. I have been driving with autopilot ~20000km last 6months. I notice rapid improvements and this was before the rewrite. Looking forward to testing FSD when it gets to Europe, but think that might be a while unfortuneatly. Here is a video of the current state of FSD:
https://youtu.be/z9gSjhzGPx4

The bull argument is that Tesla will achieve this first and is very close (less than five years). The bear argument is the other companies will achieve this before Tesla does or that it is farer away (more than ten years).

If I understood your argument correctly, that you cannot imagine this being achieved, then I think you are highly misinformed and rather clueless about where technology is headed within our lifetimes. It is similar to the people that could not make sense of cell phone adoption and its effects 25 years ago.

Not trying to pick on you, but I have read this argument a few times in this thread and felt that I needed to say something. Bears and bulls both have smart arguments but denying a predictable future that is only a few years away is extremely short-sighted. It is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when and how. The most important question is which company will profit the most: Tesla, Google, Nvidia, Intel, Comma, etc.

I have followed Tesla for a couple years, I don’t own one though. It was just my opinion based on videos and articles I’ve read, im sure it’s possible but seems less than likely to me. It just keeps being pushed further which is hard to be optimistic about. I don’t care either way, not buying Tesla stock or shorting it.

Basically FSD by Tesla/Waymo/Baidu/someone else is an AI problem. And the AI community have been solving AI challenges at a very rapid rate over the last decade. Many people who have said “x will take y years” have been proven wrong. Even Facebooks AI lead was saying Go was 10 years away the year before Google/Deepmind solved it. People said the same thing with starcraft, LOL 5v5 right before they were solved. Just look at Darpa that went from:

To

In 2 years.

Basically is ~100% that software from 100 years in the future will be able to solve it at least with Waymo’s current sensor suite. I think that Tesla sensor suite will do it, there is some debate here but it seems that if I can drive with 2 eyes, then 8 cameras, sonar and radar should be able to do it. Some disagree saying that the cameras have too low resolution, but I am not convinced by this argument.

The question is how many years of AI research is needed? Is the answer <1y, ~3y, ~5y, ~10y? We don’t know. Another question is how far ahead/behind Tesla is. From what I have seen by Karpathy/Tesla they seem to be in the lead on data. And data is king in ML, from what we have seen with Go, Starcraft, GPT-3 etc more data wins.

Elon is an excellent example of this.

Lolol

I was definitely eyeing the 480 weeklies yesterday in my gambling account after taking a loss on some spy puts, was trying to think of most likely short term 10 bagger, they were like $2.50. It’s just so weird how these huge rallies always come out of nowhere, I mean we know why but it’s still so random exactly when they happen, I thought it was done for the week after yesterday.

Next year will be disastrous for Tesla. All the easy levers have been pulled post S&P inclusion. Demand is so poor in China that 7000 cars had to be shipped to Europe from there lol. Base case is 750K sales next year and 1Mil the next. It's not going to happen. Model S desperately needs a refresh and the Y is selling well below expectations. Also seems fairly obvious China is pushing Nio at the expense of Tesla as they forced a recall for Tesla a month ago...only one in the world. Nio sales have been booming the last few months

And demand from Giga Berlin is dead:

be careful, here are some really good tips:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LwLosX45IM

What if millions of people want one but they're just waiting for the cheaper version, or a slightly better FSD version, or until there are more charging stations (which Biden will do)?

Most people can't afford to buy a new car now and another new car in two years so they'll just wait for the better technology and longer battery life one.

Seems reasonable that Model 2($25k vehicle) will improve demand yes. I expect it to be shown in 2022 and delivered in 2023. Might be a few different models for each continent with different names, will be interesting to see!

This reads like someone in the social media department shilling. Maybe that's just how members of the robust cult talk.

Practically infinite access to cheap equity capital now.

Saw this and thought the thread would enjoy it. Market cap etc. seems pretty irrelevant if this is where they're getting most of their buyers.

1-3,5 are what bulls think are relevant.
4-7 are what bears think are relevant

Seems pretty common for people to think - I like this product or lots of people I know buy this product/service - buy stock no questions asked

Seems like a better heuristic than “Everyone raves about this new startup, must be a scam. Not gonna test it myself, but I will short it. Just look at this first month of the quarter statistics, clearly now the growth story is finally over!”

I really what he says in this video between 0:45 and 1:



I also https://www.cnbc.com/mad-money-soundboard/ haha

That chart reminds me of the crypto craze circa 2017.
How is NKLA even still listed lol.

The list of sheit coins you could "invest" in kept growing everyday.

I am surprised that guy has a tv show, seems whacked out and can barely understand him.

Yeah, like Tesla has been since IPO, like Bitcoin since 2013, like Amazon since IPO etc. People keep callings things bubble just because their valuation is higher than before. It’s a nice way to feel good about one’s own position, but it’s predictive value has often been terrible in the past.