Yeah 0% chance that nov and dec will be a single car more than 12k.

elon has covid

Is 1 unit over now acceptable for a company with 800 PE?

I never understood the bull case for Tesla until I dug into Ark Invest and Hyperchange on YouTube. I still don't agree with it, but I now know what the bulls are thinking. They are just incredibly optimistic. Every press release they read they have the most favourable interpretation of.

I'd love to see a debate between Jim Chanos and Cathie Wood.

Still wouldn't be surprised if Tesla has a market cap of 1 Trillion by 2025 lol

*Tesla cuts prices again*

Bears: no demand!
Bulls: Tesla making progress on cost savings and passing it along to customers. Elon.

etc

Jim Chanos is right about once every ten years. Jim Chanos' fund has underperformed the S&P long term. Short sellers often sound smarter than they are.

Solving the money problem is one which has gained a lot of popularity, I liked his Nikola bashing videos, but completely shuts down the smallest negative info and seems completely blind to any negativity. I don't know how you have so many of these guys putting a significant portion of their net worth in Tesla and still refusing to sell. There must still be something I'm missing because I've researched dozens of hours with Tesla and can't see it.

I don't think we're missing anything. If you listen to Cathie Wood or Tasha Keeney (Analyst at ARK) their bear case has a price target of $1500 (pre stock split). It's complete insanity.

What you are missing is that people actually believe that Tesla will have appreciating asset robo taxis, believe that FSD is actually market leading and not years behind all the competition, and that Tesla will corner the EV battery market with new tech.

Much like anything, once people believe something, changing their mind is almost impossible, so you have this butterfly effect from the original positive feedback loop. "The stock price went parabolic, how could all these things not be true!"

GTFO. ”Through the end of 2017, Kynikos Capital Partners has a net annualized gain of 28.6 percent since launch in October 1985, more than double the S&P 500.” - https://www.institutionalinvestor.co...-and-Elon-Musk

I mean the next car I am going to drive is going to be a tesla. I am guessing there no car company out there that can be burning investor money and keep borrowing. As a consumer of the product that just perfect. I am getting value for my dollar while being charge less margin on the car I buy compare to other company where salesman earn commissions etc.

If you take this view and Tesla can keep producing/scale and keep giving value to consumer while investor don't care that they are losing money wouldn't they eventually grow big enough where they have a huge edge in tech?

What do you even mean by huge edge in tech? That is a vagueism Musk would use and have people retweet it 250k times.

FSD? They are 5+ years behind competition. Battery tech? They use Panasonic's battery tech and don't spend enough on R&D to out research competition. Manufacturing? They are scaling, but years behind Honda and Toyota in that aspect.

I don't think anyone is shitting on the cars at this point. They have some quality issues, but most accounts point to them being fantastic cars. Where is the multiple 100 PE coming from though? When do they drop down to a car manufacturer PE?

I am one of those. Imo some bull cases makes sense while many of the bear cases I have been reading here over the last 7 years have failed to materialize. And no I am not talking about hyping youtubers, I am talking about the likes of The Accountant, FrankSG etc.

What I believe:
2020: Tesla delivers ~500k cars
2021: Tesla delivers ~1M cars
2022: Tesla delivers 1.5M-2M cars and can recognize 100% of 30% take rate of FSD at $10k.

Do some basic math and see what earnings that would lead to. Add some credit sales to FCA+Honda. Then pick a multiplier for a company growing 50%+/year. And see what the today’s value is. Imo that justifies today’s present value.

Then add some outs for robotaxi if you believe that Tesla has a non-zero chance of winning that race. Like 10% chance of getting 10% of the market, market being worth $5T. Or don’t.

Then add some storage business boosted by 4680 LFP batteries from suppliers.

Consider that a lot of posters here less than two years ago thought Tesla was insanely valued at $50B. With Tesla now making ~$1B/quarter at least that $50B market cap was not totally insane right? If you now think Tesla has a fair value somewhere between $50B and current market cap, will you again be making the same mistake, soon adopting the current insane market cap as a fair value while claiming that the new market cap is insane?

I think a big part of the bull thesis is truly believing that elon is a supergenius, a modern day edison. and let's be honest he's very, very good at maintaining that image. for evidence just look at his twitter since he got covid, where he oh-so-casually weighs in on covid testing methods. anyone who follows him knows this is a recurring pattern throughout the pandemic (the first time it culminated with the hilarious "no new cases by end of april" tweet). he puts forth the image of someone who can spend merely a few hours of his attention on something and know it better than career scientists.

so people who believe this also believe that, by extension, the tesla factory must be filled with lower caliber but still super smart geniuses, and point to things like "top places to work for engineers" polls or w/e. and again by extension they think that tesla engineers can do in 1 year with minimal r&d spending what has taken waymo/cruise/every other autonomous driving engineer team 5+ years with massive r&d. the same attitude persists: every other autonomous driving endeavor concluded that lidar is the way to go, but elon says it's not and he's 100x smarter than everyone else, so he must be right.

and another important factor is the cult-like structure of the whole thing. at the top is god elon, with his internal genius minions (karpathy, used to be JB, etc.). then the tier below is unofficial tesla PR team: the ARK crew, gali, vincent, rob maurer i think is his name, few others, who all provide tesla "news" on their respective outlets (think OANN for trump equivalent). the underlying message they all put forward is 1) tesla is so far ahead of everyone else on whatever the flavor of the month is - batteries, fsd, range, whatever; and 2) if you sell you're an idiot because the next big thing is coming up. and this trickles down to the consumers, who bully each other into not selling and continuing to buy at any price (browse the r/teslainvestorsclub daily threads and you'll see it multiple times a day)

edit: and one more underlying aspect of all this is using sustainability as a defense against any criticism. cars aren't selling for a profit? doesn't matter, the mission is to transition the world to sustainable cars. elon gets billions in stonk options? it's ok, he will use it to go to mars (lol). and it lets investors tell themselves that they're investing in a good cause (so it's ok even if they don't make money or if tesla does a cap raise at market top, but also they expect to 4x their money because meme stock)

Anyone have Tesla weeklies??

this is gonna be fun

s&p 500 baby, daddy did it!!! i have some weekly lottos!!!

I think this is the big difference between bulls and bears. Bulls think that the cars are selling for profit(~25% GM, ~10% operating margins). Bears think that cars are selling for losses and never will be profitable. One side is right.

What is Tesla's total net profit excluding sales of environmental credits?

They would of lost money no? or that was previous quarter? They are expanding though so I guess you could get an accurate value if you subtract those growth costs from estimated future car sales, plus maybe 10% chance they nail full self driving?

That is discounting other companies who also would have self driving, plus its hard to imagine for Tesla to really have a dominant percentage of the market share for electric cars in general, 5 or 10 years from now.

Do you exclude purchases of environmental credits when you value FCA? But yes, they did a profit excluding credits last quarter. That’s the reason why S&P decided to add them today.

This is the chart I care about:


The bull thesis has always been that Tesla would lose money by investing in production, infrastructure and technology to eventually reach a scale and gross margin where they will be profitable. Bulls think that was last year with Model 3. Bears think that will never happen.

Tesla prodocution volume in China hitting new records too. Incredible how quickly they can scale up manufacturing, they're gonna crush Q4 expectations assuming no strict lockdown measures. I'd take the 180k range.

If elon dumps his shares under the guise of needing to provide additional float for s&p inclusion he will have won, doing it right before jay clayton steps down makes it extra winning

You must have a pretty loose interpretation of "approximately."

I'm just glad you are committing yourself to actual predictions for the future this time instead of posting other people's predictions and then disclaiming them when they didn't come to fruition.

Living the non-GAAP dream over here. Companies shouldn't even be able to report that number. Like, hey, if you let us do illegal accounting we can claim 500mm more in net income! Lols.

They are still losing money without reg credits. 1.3 billion in credits over the last year to make 550mm. Would have lost money last quarter even without credits. Almost all of the cash came from selling stock.

I've been on the record as saying they are out of the woods here, but assuming their fair value is 50-420B is fairly optimistic. I think its closer to 10-20B.

What happens if in 3 years Waymo starts leasing their FSD to competition and people realize that Tesla FSD is 5-8 years behind as far as edge cases go and people start suing Tesla? That has to be at least as high a chance of happening as Tesla capturing 10% of a 5trillion market, right? What happens to their margins if they have to pay Waymo for their FSD because they realize they will never actually get there.... No thoughts on that?