It's even worse than that. Look at this thread - https://twitter.com/olivercameron/st...35514887831552 - 5 interventions in 7 minutes driving.

Accidents happen without FSD also. The real questions are
1. Does 2020.48.8.10 today have more accidents per mile than the average car
2. Will FSD over time lead to fewer accidents

It seems some in EAP have gotten 2020.48.8.11 and are noticing improvements already. And latest Q3 safety report just came out, autopilot is having fewer accidents per mile:
https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

Wow. Dead last and even further behind than I thought. 2005 level technology.

And the Waymo interventions of one per 12,000 two years ago (now non existent as evidenced by fully function autonomous robotaxis in Phoenix) were caused by other drivers. These are unforced errors by Tesla, some incredibly dangerous, like the one where they swerve across lanes when taking a left turn then drive hard into a divider, rescued at the last minute by the driver who was clearly freaked out.

Who knew that Musk was an absolute loser and liar when it comes to autonomous driving? I'm shocked. Or that heltok would be his gullible giddy cheerleader? Also shocked.

Expectation (believed by the uber gullible heltok):

- "Fully Self Driving feature complete by the end of 2019"
- "1 million autonomous robotaxis in 2020 making more than $10 billion/year in profit for Tesla"
- "Tesla cars will appreciate five times in 2020 as FSD comes online"

The above are perhaps the greatest fraud ever done by a CEO. It netted him billions of dollars in personal income, saved his almost bankrupt company and soared his stock 1000%.

Reality (October 2020):

- Highly dangerous 2005 level technology released to limited beta testers, which requires 1 intervention ever few miles.
- Heltok still gullible, spouting idiot memes that Musk implanted in his brain, such as

Never mind that he said the same thing years ago. Musk's greatest achievement is to install cult-like bullshit lies like the above in the minds of its idiot followers. He's a genius at that and deserves full credit.

This is not even complete lvl3.



9:20 - driving into a sign (and traffic) without an intervention
10:20 - breaking a virtual cyclist's neck.

And the cultists think this is impressive.

$420 pin forever?

Yeah it's not dangerous in about 95% of situations, which is about 3% of the work of autonomous driving (and the easiest part at that).

It's basically a toy for big children to play with, not much more. There's zero chance of Musk having "autonomous robotaxis" in the next five years.

Honestly surprised we haven't seen any accidents yet

Bears are gonna be seeing cracks in FSD and Tesla’s financials no matter if Tesla goes bankrupt or overtakes Apple in revenue. What good is a model that gives the same answer no matter what happens? Instead of arguing topics where there never is any resolution to the arguments, let’s predict 2020 Q4 instead.

1. How many deliveries?
2. How much profit/loss non-gaap?

I will go first
1. 180k
2. +$1.3B

Just incredible how many people the century's greatest fraud has conned. Mainstream news is noticing now:

Tesla's beta test of "full self-driving" system worries drivers, pedestrians — and even owners

This quote is pretty lol:
But not uncommon. The lie helped turned around demand through free press and people like the above. I blame the media for it, uncritical parroting of his PR, as well as his cult fanboys like heltok who repeated his lies.

Tesla demand was in the toilet and he was running out of money in April 2019 when he pulled out this massive "fully self driving" lie/fraud. Some people even bought multiple Tesla believing his lies that they'd appreciate by 5x in 2020. I'm in awe of the size and chutzpah and success of the con.

What good is that? On a non-GAAP basis I made $6.8 trillion last year.

i had non-GAAP intercourse with 3 victoria's secret models last night

to the point:
i don't believe their headline delivery numbers or non-gaap financials to reflect the realities of the company or be indicative of future performance - and i don't trade around those news releases. reality is hidden deep in the footnotes.

so i don't really care.

When can we expect lawsuits for Tesla not delivering on FSD?

well, technically, they are now selling "Full Self-Driving Capability" as a brand term and have kind of reclassified it to whatever it is they deliver. there's a definition on their website and it's not what normal people would expect when they hear full self-driving.

pretty sure there are already cases of early buyers in court.

I will play. 160k deliveries and 350m net income (GAAP.)

I don’t see any way they can hit the 180k quarterly/500k annual deliveries but they’ve proved me wrong before. Certainly Tesla would pull out all stops if they are anywhere close but 160k is a nice number for them to settle on showing another quarterly record.

Q4 plus Q1 total is more interesting if Tesla pulls forward a bunch of sales to hit a number how much of a drop off can they explain with “seasonality”.

I think that IF they end up around 180k deliveries in Q4 it will be thanks to ending the year with a production run rate around 200k/quarter. The way they will do it is mostly by increasing output from Shanghai by going 3 shifts, but also by increasing production of Y in Freemont thanks to the new casting machines. LFP batteries will play a large part both for Model 3 SR+ MIC and for stationary energy.

Q1 should have some seasonality, unless Model Y MIC is ramping much faster than expected. Covid likely shifted some deliveries from Q1/Q2 to Q3/Q4. Macro a lot will depend on how the world handles covid in winter.

Where exactly would additional output from Shanghai go in your mind?

EU, Shanghai, rest of China and Asia Pacific.

lol missed that mars tweet, that's great. here are some more:

elon and friends on the Pfizer vaccine:


elon on Einstein:


came here to post october China deliveries a little over 12k, roughly flat over the last several months iirc. exported 7k to EU. i can't see how they get close to the 180k or whatever needed to hit 500k for the year. but i'm a permabear and elon gonna elon

Yeah, no demand, Tesla are just making cars filling up parking lots in China...


Growth story over...

https://twitter.com/troyteslike/stat...818085379?s=21

The world's largest consumer economy in a boom and Tesla are selling ~12K/month there and having to export the excess.

That is precisely "demand sucks bigger than even Fully Self Driving does".

Waymo slapdown of the Tesla "Fully Self Driving" fraud was nice. What else do you need to say except "Yes"? Everyone who isn't silly knows that Tesla are dead last for about 10 different reasons.

Do you even read what you post? That shows China sales have flatlined at 11-12K a month, and inventory of unsold cars has ballooned to over 10K, even AFTER exporting 7K cars to Europe. How can you possibly see that and NOT conclude that demand is weak and the growth story is over?