I took a large (for me) position in TSLA this morning @ $381. The first time I've ever been long TSLA. I will sell this at the latest 1-2 days before battery day, probably sell Friday. I still think the company is garbage.

Ok all you tsla cultists, let your wildest dreams for battery day run wild.

Probably would have been free money to buy 9/28 calls on Friday. Not sure I want to bet on battery day after 10% tody, though its likely still not horrible

now i hope battery day misses expectations wildly... i love seeing trader pain

seeing these kinds of tweets pop up every few days on my feed

I sold half at $445.

nice trade. up almost 400 in 2 days, what could go wrong.

i have these too. unloading my now. i can't believe it's at $459. i had to sell; it was distracting me from my real job.

Dear TSLA Oracle,

Will the new rally peak before or after battery day.

All the delivery tracking guys on twitter are estimating like 140k q3 deliveries which should be good for a pump early October

I held onto mine, diamond hands and all that. Hope I can sell later this week.

I would guess before, but this thing is crazy so maybe not

2 more weeks this quarter.
must be leaked email time pretty soon.

yeah maybe he says something on battery day? who knows. not rly sure what the hype is for battery day but im a bear so i think i'm not meant to get it

Battery day is when they will be cornering the ev battery market by announcing proprietary tech and a full blown production factory to make everything in house

According to bulls itt at least

it honestly doesn't really matter what they announce, but we can expect it to sound pretty awesome and move the stockprice.

solar roof day, autonomy day, semi, 2020 (lol) roadster, cybertruck - they've all been announced for years and had no material impact on the business whatsoever and won't for the foreseeable future. battery day will just add more things to that list.

I expect battery day to be something of a flop. Batteries just aren't and can't be as exciting or "crazy bull thesis" as the Gigafraud that saved Tesla from bankruptcy. Let's review what was claimed at the time:

- Fully Self Driving "feature complete" by the end of 2019
- 1 million robotaxis on the road in 2020, fully functional autonomously serving passengers, earning 10s of thousands of profit per car for Tesla's cut
- Model 3s appreciating 5x in value in 2020, becoming worth $250K+ per car.

That's exciting stuff if you're mentally ******ed or not familiar with the subject matter/lack common sense and are gullible enough to trust Musk. I really don't see how can top a fraud of that magnitude. Batteries don't come close.

just make up super battery tech that's going to solve every problem on the globe.
like those robotaxi claims, no one will hold them accountable anyway.

there'll be like 5 real battery scientists on twitter who will confirm that whatever they claim is physically impossible but no one is going to care because the stock is at 500.

I don't believe they're going to make something huge up (a pure gigantic fraud) like Musk did with autonomous robotaxis. I think it will be incremental unexciting changes with some big headlines (1000 km range, faster charging, lower cost), going into production in 2024 or so.

Musk is in a really different situation now than a year ago. He was in deep **** a year ago - unable to get capital, demand tanking, no one willing to underwrite, the stock in the toilet, excitement for the brand rapidly waning, so he threw a hail mary gigantic lie and it worked.

He doesn't need to do that now and it would in fact be counterproductive due to the scrutiny it would cause. Battery day has already served its purpose:

And it worked nicely through the S&P 500 rejection.

I believe that Musk only does his gigantic frauds when he desperately needs it - he knows they're risky. So battery day will be a flop compared to the hype (imo) but the next big thing will be upbeat delivery expectations and then probably another cycle of S&P 500 inclusion hopes.

Ultimately with nothing bad on the immediate horizon I think the market determines where Tesla goes from here, with a little deflation when battery day flops on top of that.

Fully autonomous self charging batteries.

We use the crankshaft to charge your battery while you drive!

i also don't think battery day will do much to stonk price. no matter how you spin it, batteries just can't be as exciting as autonomous driving. the bulls who seem most excited by it are the armchair physicists who like to tell ppl how much they love science and the like.

the next big test imo is q4 deliveries. bulls are still in the camp of 140k q3 deliveries and like 180k q4 deliveries to meet the 500k yearly guidance and i'm having a hard time seeing how they get anywhere close to 180k.

Yeah, I pretty much agree with TSs analysis on the situation. It'll probably be slightly disappointing and there will be a drop, and it will recover into deliveries announcement

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-road...nalysis-video/

edit: battery day is before the end of the quarter though

hey can someone talk me out of just buying a shitload of calls on october 1st? like end of octobeer or november exp. here's why:

-will report quarterly deliveries first week of the month
-if the twitter trackers are right and they post 140k deliveries, will be seen as huge beat, highest quarter ever by far, etc. should be good for a big ole pump on huge growth etc.
-even if they whiff by like 20k (huge whiff), still post 120k deliveries which i think is still the highest quarter ever, should also be good for a huge pump
-won't be like earnings binary so won't get iv crushed if i'm wrong

I sold the other half at $418.