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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

10-12-2016 , 05:37 PM
Tesla Dominates U.S. Luxury Sedan Sales
When it comes to market share for big premium cars, BMW, Mercedes, and Audi aren’t even close.

Tesla’s U.S. sales of its Model S sedan jumped 59 percent over the same quarter last year, increasing its already sizable lead among large luxury cars, according to third-quarter data released Wednesday by forecaster IHS Markit. Tesla is now responsible for more than a third of the segment’s sales. Its nearest competition—the newly updated BMW 7-Series and the Mercedes-Benz S-Class—weren’t even close.



Nothing to see here guys. Keep drinking that TS derp where tesla by implication has negative gross margins and thus does worse the more cars it sells. With the model X finally hitting volume production with most the kinks worked out, I'm starting to see them all over the road in CA on a daily basis, wont be long before they are the top selling 80k+ luxury suv on the market. They also have the added bonus of qualifying for section 179.

Last edited by Cuban B; 10-12-2016 at 05:45 PM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
10-12-2016 , 06:04 PM
BMW 7 Series is doing nicely.
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10-13-2016 , 10:18 AM
Cuban,

How many years of 60% growth would Tesla need to stop raising outside capital and become atleast paper profitable?
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10-13-2016 , 10:32 AM
60% growth necessitates outside capital. Since Tesla calls a lot of capital expenditures (building out of customer infrastructure such as super chargers), they will not be "paper" profitable any time soon.

This is more smart accounting (minimize tax bills) than actual disaster.
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10-13-2016 , 11:15 AM
It also adds a vast amount of risk to the project. Needing 5-10b of outside capital is not trivial and that number is increasing rather than decreasing (not positive IMO).

There are arguments both for and against Tesla, but boiling it down to something as silly as "OMG huge growth in a market of 30k cars" is asinine.
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10-13-2016 , 11:57 AM
That's really exactly what it boils down to. Tesla is not and will not be the last company whose equity amounts to a giant real option betting on the success of a certain market.

The great irony of the whole thing is Tesla's success actually depends on its "competitors" joining the fray in earnest to share the costs of the developing infrastructure and gaining acceptance.
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10-13-2016 , 12:59 PM
The model S is more in line both in driving experience and price with a Midsize 5 series or E class rather than a long wheelbase luxo barge. Do you have those numbers?
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10-13-2016 , 01:04 PM
Looks like in the US Mercedes sold 4,442 e class just last month. BMW 5 series was only 1521 but there isn't much supply as the all new 5 series is about to come out.
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10-13-2016 , 09:58 PM
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/786601762354442242
Quote:
@TeslaMotors @elonmusk @CARmagazine great! Thoughts on Tesla/scty needing $12B article ?

‏@elonmusk
@vicentes obviously wrong
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/785139055793152000
Quote:
@elonmusk
Would also like to correct expectations that Tesla/SolarCity will need to raise equity or corp debt in Q4. Won't be necessary for either.

@elonmusk not in Q4, but Q1/17?
@roger_kappler Probably not then either
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10-14-2016 , 12:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihkel05
Cuban,

How many years of 60% growth would Tesla need to stop raising outside capital and become atleast paper profitable?
I'd like to see your estimate first. Then i'll play.
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10-14-2016 , 05:24 AM
what a fraud.. enron musk...

I can't wait to see the inevitable follow-on offering to say "I told you so, as always".

12B is quite large, but at least a couple of billions will be needed for sure.

http://seekingalpha.com/news/3213942...r=1#email_link
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10-14-2016 , 07:57 AM
They've already filed the paper work for a capital raise. And note his extremely weird specific language.

What he is said is not "We won't be taking in an asston of outside money". Even reasonably smart people get constantly fooled by his silly way of speaking thinking its brilliance when sometimes its just outright buffoonery/fraud and other times its this sort of bull****.

Cuban,

Never. The market isn't big enough. That is the reason I wanted to point out your argument was a silly strawman. But we could do the math backward assuming their gross margin of 20% holds, and they need to upkeep an insane amount of infrastructure, I dunno 2-5m cars a year? However long that takes to get to.

We'll ignore the massive downward pressure the car market is gonna face in the coming years from AI.
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10-14-2016 , 07:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihkel05
We'll ignore the massive downward pressure the car market is gonna face in the coming years from AI.
Care to elaborate?
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10-14-2016 , 07:39 PM
SDC will reduce the amount of cars we need.
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10-14-2016 , 08:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihkel05
SDC will reduce the amount of cars we need.
Regarding the figures for this, I would say that it is not as simple as one would think. The calculations I have seen is that if everyone switched from owning a car to using self driving car ride sharing services we would see 90% less cars on the roads and 50% more miles driven due to the fact that cars don't wait where you are but go to some other spot to pick upp next rider.

With slightly higher wear and tear I could see life expectancy of a SDC taxi being less than half of normal cars.

It is not clear how many percentage of car owners will prefer to own their own car. If you are gonna spend several hours in a car while it drives you to the mountain for some skiing you might prefer to do it in your own car.

And it is not clear how often cars will be replaced in a SDC-taxi world. Maybe users will pay premium to have the safest car with the latest entertainment and cars will be replaced more often.

With more convenient taxi service we might also see different user behaviour, with people going to locations more often.

We might also see home ownership change if people start preferring to live in self driving houses.

All in all it is very unclear how the sales figures will change for the car industry. It is not clear that it will lead to a 90% revenue drop that many analysts seems to fear. We will see how the figure looks like over time also, initially a lot of cars will have to be replaced.
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10-15-2016 , 07:45 AM
Yes.

I think we can all agree that SDC will cause downward pressure on personal car sales which is what Tesla is focused on, and considering the early public tests phases are already happening. It may occur before Tesla gets profitable in 202x or whatever.

Anyway, my overall point was that forecasting growth in a market that is shrinking and changing rapidly is problematic. The Tesla that emerges in 20y as a 500b company will almost assuredly look nothing like what Telsa is going today.
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10-19-2016 , 08:30 PM
https://electrek.co/2016/10/19/tesla...f-driving-car/
Quote:
All Tesla Vehicles Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware
Self-driving vehicles will play a crucial role in improving transportation safety and accelerating the world’s transition to a sustainable future. Full autonomy will enable a Tesla to be substantially safer than a human driver, lower the financial cost of transportation for those who own a car and provide low-cost on-demand mobility for those who do not.
We are excited to announce that, as of today, all Tesla vehicles produced in our factory – including Model 3 – will have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver. Eight surround cameras provide 360 degree visibility around the car at up to 250 meters of range. Twelve updated ultrasonic sensors complement this vision, allowing for detection of both hard and soft objects at nearly twice the distance of the prior system. A forward-facing radar with enhanced processing provides additional data about the world on a redundant wavelength, capable of seeing through heavy rain, fog, dust and even the car ahead.
To make sense of all of this data, a new onboard computer with more than 40 times the computing power of the previous generation runs the new Tesla-developed neural net for vision, sonar and radar processing software. Together, this system provides a view of the world that a driver alone cannot access, seeing in every direction simultaneously and on wavelengths that go far beyond the human senses.
Model S and Model X vehicles with this new hardware are already in production, and customers can purchase one today: https://www.tesla.com/autopilot
Before activating the features enabled by the new hardware, we will further calibrate the system using millions of miles of real-world driving to ensure significant improvements to safety and convenience. While this is occurring, Teslas with new hardware will temporarily lack certain features currently available on Teslas with first-generation Autopilot hardware, including some standard safety features such as automatic emergency breaking, collision warning, lane holding and active cruise control. As these features are robustly validated we will enable them over-the-air, together with a rapidly expanding set of entirely new features. As always, our over-the-air software updates will keep customers at the forefront of technology and continue to make every Tesla, including those equipped with first-generation Autopilot and earlier cars, more capable over time.

Last edited by heltok; 10-19-2016 at 08:42 PM.
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10-19-2016 , 09:26 PM
Elon:
Quote:
Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we’ll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let’s say dropping you off in Time Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year (2017)... Without the need for a single touch, including the charger.
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10-19-2016 , 11:52 PM
heltok -

Too bad Project Titan finished Tesla as a carmaker back in September '15, it would have been interesting to see where they get with this. Sad!
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10-20-2016 , 12:27 AM
I will take any amount of money that this won't happen by the end of 2017.
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10-20-2016 , 12:40 AM
Also, I love the crazy excitement. Musk is basically saying:

- We'll finally put some hardware on that was the minimum necessary to not have someone get decapitated while using the old autopilot
- We don't have jack **** right now
- However, you get to be our alpha testers!
- We're going to give you a worse product than what's currently there in the meantime.
- Full autonomy in a year guys. Trust me.

This is just hilarious. Otherwise smart people guzzling Musk....koolaid?...by the gallon.
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10-20-2016 , 06:25 AM
Video of the self driving car:
https://www.tesla.com/sv_SE/videos/f...as?redirect=no

Call me impressed.
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10-20-2016 , 06:59 AM
Chapeau
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10-20-2016 , 09:24 AM
Impressive, tesla is a beautiful car. Auto pilot driving from point to point would be a dream come true.

But I would not buy the stock or short it.
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10-20-2016 , 09:27 AM
Oh and by the way this is basically Musk's admission that everyone was right (including me) and he's been incredibly irresponsible and basically committed negligent homicide for releasing "autopilot" early and marketing it as he did. I mean, think about it. All this hardware in there, and yet the EXISTING autopilot's features - nearly all of them - are being near completely turned off in new cars until they're turned back on at some unspecified date?

Quote:
Before activating the features enabled by the new hardware, we will further calibrate the system using millions of miles of real-world driving to ensure significant improvements to safety and convenience. While this is occurring, Teslas with new hardware will temporarily lack certain features currently available on Teslas with first-generation Autopilot hardware, including some standard safety features such as automatic emergency breaking, collision warning, lane holding and active cruise control.
This is pure spin for what is an incredibly embarrassing backtrack. You've all been chumped by a skilled conman.
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