Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihkel05
SDC will reduce the amount of cars we need.
Regarding the figures for this, I would say that it is not as simple as one would think. The calculations I have seen is that if everyone switched from owning a car to using self driving car ride sharing services we would see 90% less cars on the roads and 50% more miles driven due to the fact that cars don't wait where you are but go to some other spot to pick upp next rider.
With slightly higher wear and tear I could see life expectancy of a SDC taxi being less than half of normal cars.
It is not clear how many percentage of car owners will prefer to own their own car. If you are gonna spend several hours in a car while it drives you to the mountain for some skiing you might prefer to do it in your own car.
And it is not clear how often cars will be replaced in a SDC-taxi world. Maybe users will pay premium to have the safest car with the latest entertainment and cars will be replaced more often.
With more convenient taxi service we might also see different user behaviour, with people going to locations more often.
We might also see home ownership change if people start preferring to live in self driving houses.
All in all it is very unclear how the sales figures will change for the car industry. It is not clear that it will lead to a 90% revenue drop that many analysts seems to fear. We will see how the figure looks like over time also, initially a lot of cars will have to be replaced.