You're continuing the grand tradition of being wrong about absolutely everything you post.

Tesla has an enormous market correlation (it's gotten stronger as the active float has gotten smaller). We watch the ticks and inflections intraday. And yes the market has been the enabler of Tesla's huge rip and will also send it crashing down if it goes down.

I don’t know what this means exactly. The point I was trying to make is that beta for 2019 is higher than what is now apparently. Now that TSLA has a 4 figure share price I wonder if we’ll see a lower volatility vs the market (beta).

Of course a beta of 3-10 seems ridiculous btw.

TSLA trading at ~1500 a share seems ridiculous too but heh. I readily concede I am not smarter than the market. I have no clue as what the share price will be in 6 months.

I've got some good news for you. You probably are smarter than this market.

Bought 2 1555 calls for tomorrow at $4 a piece, 10 minutes before close. Will set stops this time if they are up in the AM.

Yeah man, completely ridiculous. Not at all a near perfect correlation with SPY at a 4-6x market multiplier today (and 3-10 on most directional market days), just like the graphs I posted last week:



Nothing to see here, move along. Like I said, pearls before swine.

And here's an easier graph for the idiots who think grizy's spreadsheet somehow trumps these graphs (because you're too dumb to understand how math works). Here's Tesla (-3%) overlaid on SPY (-0.5%) for the last two hours:



That's a 6x multiplier with almost exact SPY following on a directional day. The market is entirely driving Tesla moves with an enormous multiplier. As stated:
It's the perfect and helpful explanation for what Cleese was wondering was happening in Tesla during that time (how can it flip so many billions/percent in a day on no news??), but grizy chose to waste everyone's time with his nonsense rather than say thank you to his intellectual better. It's kind of sad (hi grizy, I know you're reading this).

I don't know what TS is saying as I have him on ignore. But he's probably trying to show how Tesla graphs overlay the SPY while calling users names.

I recently read “Saudi America”, by Bethany McLean***, about fracking. It refers to 3 possible futures for energy:





I’m curious how TSLA investors (bears and bulls) model future energy scenarios. The direction and timing of this macro trend seems key to Tesla’s success or failure.

—

***McLean coauthored “Enron: The Smartest Guys In The Room” (book and documentary on a corporate fraud). Interesting to learn that EOG Resources, Inc., a spin off from Enron, is ranked 186th on the Fortune 500 today.

why?
tesla energy is like 5% of their revenue and shrinking.

What would happen if Tesla bought GM? TSLA has almost 10x the market cap of GM but GM might have better access to capital markets, higher revenue, and lots of market share that Elon can convert.

That would be pretty hilarious if a company that doesn't make money and has 1/10 of GMs assets were somehow able to buy them out.

Not sure how that would work, but it would definitely be funny

convert into what?
if tesla were to trade at car company multiples like gm the stock would be below $50. what would be the multiple of the combined company?

how does gm have better access to capital markets? one of them can raise at a $35b valuation and the other at $260b. ok, tsla would probably have to give a greater discount, but still far less dilution for the same amount of money.

Neither one will happen, but it's more likely to go the other way.

TS - you exaggerated and got called out. Digging your heels in here is embarrassing.

Posting a 3x chart on a low vol day with a 6 realized beta, with two different y axis (value and scale!) and different starting point. smh

It’s what TS does. He always digs in and just calls his opponent stupid or worse.

He is psychologically, and maybe intellectually, incapable of admitting when he is wrong.

What the hell are you talking about, idiot? I literally took the 2 hour which were vertically above each other, of nearly exactly the same height, and laid them over one another.

The x axes line up well enough and the y axis is identical you ****ing idiot - nearly the same height and same time period takes care of that. It's a direct 6x beta nearly tick for tick.

Here's the daily at that same point, you moron, y and x axis all lined up. The correlation is even stronger. I used the two hour because it had better resolution:



That's an almost exact 6x beta for most of the day. I look forward to your apology.

They could buy out F and GM actually. Combined they have a market cap of ~61 billion. TSLA $266 billion. Definitely conceivable. Not sure if TSLA is unionized but UAW might be an impediment.

Market cap isn't a very reliable measure of sale price. Enterprise value is better but still not reliable

Tesla/Musk claim the aim is to grow the energy business to approximately the same size as the car manufacturing business. You may take the view that the goals of Tesla energy are implausible, but I’d rather not debate the premise of the question.

Also as an EV manufacturer, relative energy prices (gasoline vs electricity), infrastructure, regulations on ICE vehicle production and use, and the speed at which competing firms switch to making EVs, are relevant.

If the boundary conditions for renewable energy and storage improve swiftly, it could help Tesla to grow the energy business, whereas if they deteriorate and other energy sources become more competitive (in abundance, cost, regulatory treatment, geopolitics, science and innovation), it could hurt the opportunity in solar and storage.

You are right of course. Thanks for generously sharing your wisdom!

all that is already happening. no one waits for you to come around with your product.
yearly solar GW installed is up 400%+ over the last decade, the global battery market has double digit growth rates and there are billions invested every year.

companies are making money in those markets right now.

I guess you are in the second scenario (Autonomy) camp?

I don’t think any given scenario, or timeline, is inevitable or ineluctable. It’s super complex and in constant flux.

i don't know. what's the base timeline for those scenarios?

a few hundred votes in a ballot box somewhere in the US or one of the major eu economies can decide over hundreds of billions in subsidies.

It’s actually extremely simple.

Chemical breakthrough in LIB + licensing agreements with all major manufacturers = 100% different world 3 years later.

Everyone is just waiting for the breakthrough.

In the meantime, LIB stink, so batteries and ultracapacitors stink.

So grid storage stinks.
Therefore solar is garbage.

So EVs stink.

So mining Cobalt and nickel rocks (pun intended).

Etc etc.

The entire ripple effect requires on one thing.

(Btw, global energy storage market will be gigantic and a multi-decade double-digit growth sector, but not catching the global automotive market for many many decades, if ever.)