I interpreted the tweets as Musk pushing for more money directly in the hands of retail investors who will jam on the $TSLA meme stock at any valuation. The self righteous UBI signal is a collateral benefit.

To the guy wondering why some bears in this thread (and TSLAQ more broadly) are so biased, I don’t know, but they definitely start with the conjecture that Tesla will fail and interpret events in accordance with that. This thread is a great case study in cognitive biases (eg. confirmation bias), which are the enemy of rational decisions.***

Having said that I believe there are rational bull and bear scenarios, and I’m not painting everyone with the same brush. Also don’t have a bear or a bull in the fight myself at the moment.

——

*** Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values. It is an important type of cognitive bias that has a significant effect on the proper functioning of society by distorting evidence-based decision-making.

Fun day, bought a 1425 call expiring today, when I woke up at 6:40 pst for $8.80 and for some reason hadn’t sold when it got to $4500, dropped below $2500 and didn’t want to set a stop because there was such a big spread. I definitely deserve that for not selling a 400% gain 1 hour after buying....

and if you want the bias the other way around: reddit

no matter how this plays out, i'll for sure watch the documentary more than once

I think of “stimulus” as meaning a range of government policy measures, of which direct payments is but one, whereas UBI is essentially direct payments only.

Also, the timeframe of each seems different. UBI may be means tested or not but if you qualify it is paid periodically, in perpetuity, as of right, for as long as it is on the statute books, whereas stimulus is for a limited time.

Not to mention they aim to meet different objectives.

I’m not siding with Musk on stimulus or UBI, just saying the distinction between the two appears valid to me.

People will also spend money according to the system and culture they live in (so including 'self-serving special interests'), not some perfectly informed and clairvoyant free will that so-called libertarians believe exists.

Having said that, when the government is as said short sighted and corrupt as the current one, you may as well give more to people.

You severely underestimate the number of docs there will be

UBI is the new crowdfunding.

Give everyone $1000 a month and a robinhood app and Musk might be richer than Bezos.

Can the bulls come back now that TSLA rallied?

How a company can lose literally billions of it's value in a few hours and then make a few billion a few hours later is totally absurd. I'm out of this crap for good. I'll stick to poker for the gambling.

In related news, Elon Musk wants a cage fight with Johnny Depp.

On market/tech directional days, it's a 3-10 beta (both ways) because it super low float and tards pile in on trends. Perhaps that helps you trade/understand it. The majority of the runup has been this effect on the market doing a prolonged bull run off lows.

Also, it made more than a few billion. It lost $54 billion last week from high to low, and today it made back $20 billion. All because the market ticked up 0.8% rather than down.

Had they lost $100 million instead of made $100 million last quarter with blatant accounting tricks, the stock would probably have lost about $100 billion in value. Fun, isn't it?

It's a sign of how weird this stock is that I'm not sure if this is parody and I'd also probably bet on it being true.

Real I guess:

they can make more money with that fight than in 15 years selling cars.

I just wanted to share this on my youtube homepage.

Today was the bull trap

Nah, stock is going to 2k

imagine those of you listening to the people saying, when it was at 800-900 that it was going to crash and they would laugh at you.


still waiting i guess. any day this tock is goign to go down to 100...any day now right boys????? in the meantime people are swinging and gaining.

It just shows how ridiculously inefficient some of these markets are. Sports betting exchanges are more efficient than this and they have a tiny tiny fraction of the volume. Surely its possible to make easy bucks following the tards and being a paradoxical tard oneself.

Going to gamble on another weekly Tesla option in the next day or two. First time went for a put and made money, then lost again on a put. Didn't sell the call I had Friday when it was up 450% and $40 in the money, ended up expiring worthless, think I will go for a 1650 if we get a dip tomorrow.

It's just a 10 beta market bet, it's will rip or dive depending on what the market does. There's a lot happening this week in the market with tech earnings, fed, economic numbers.

https://twitter.com/herz1/status/128...214324736?s=20
lol. they ended up making a 10k bet and a lunch. Good for the random guy making this connection.

Thoughts from the thread?
What odds would you lay?

(embedding isn't working from computer and i'm not going to spend more time playing with it.)

up or down? or both?

Ended up getting the 1360 put when it was sitting at 1530, since it was all I had money for. $700 I paid, only up around 45% at close and going to let it ride.

3-10 beta is a lot. And it should be fairly easy to demonstrate by filtering for “directional days” if true.

This is something I would have given an intern to do and I’d expect him to get it done in less than an hour.

Google says Tesla’s beta is around 1.2.

That took 5 seconds.

No idea what timeframe he’s talking about.

I love the complete inability to think or quickly parse data here. Amazing.
This is Tesla vs Nasdaq:



Expand the image for best effect. The effect vs SPY is even larger (10x) and so pronounced it's difficult to see on a reasonable height graph so I did it vs tech instead.

This is what drives Tesla these days - pure market direction following at 3-10x beta every single day. Virtually nothing of what happens to Tesla stock these days depends on Tesla. It's a megajuiced market bet.

It's also the reason for the giant runup. The market went up strongly for weeks and this buyup helped soar Tesla. If the market stayed near lows, Tesla would be $300-$400 area. It's why I'm laughing my ass off when the bulls think the price rise validates their thesis or people ask me the questions above. How are you so unobservant you don't simply notice this in 5 minutes looking at how it trades?