Probably nothing, but I feel this is setting up a possible out to unwind accounting levers pulled this quarter.

I can't tell if today was the bull trap or the bear trap.

The last month has been the bull trap. Today was just a garden variety minor market bubble euphoria pullback. Wait until something actually goes wrong.

Tooth I think you've said before but what are your thoughts on spacex? would you invest at current valuation of ~40B?

Tooth,

Yes your analysis has actually been spot on. There's honestly not much/if anything I disagree with from fundamentals perspective and Musk being fos. The revenue/cash flow sucks. Growth story is bullshit. Musk says X, Y happens, people just forget and move on. This stock really is trading on a story/narrative and when that happens valuations become detached from any sort of first principals analysis. Like all stories, the music eventually stops one day and the herd wakes up, but I don't know when that will be. It's harder than it looks. Regardless, I do think your posts here in this thread are good and only the people who don't really understand the nuances of this would somehow think you got it wrong in that sense.

NLSoldier,

Hesitant to start DeFI thread for a few reasons:

1) these forums are too loosely moderated. When I posted about ETH in 2017/2018 for every 2-3 posters genuinely engaged in learning+having a real conversation there were 1-2 posters who just ruined it by circling back to dumbass trolling. I found my time instead trying to "defend" why ethereum isn't a scam or why BTC isn't the only thing that matters in this space. Anyway here is why a new thread wouldn't work:

A) Moderators don't ban enough

B) Gets trolled by people who for the most part missed the boat on crypto or for whatever reason hate seeing other people talk about thesis' and make bank. They do not post in good faith and all you have to do is scan the ethereum thread to see how it just ruins the conversations. Perhaps partly my fault for engaging of course, but many of those posters would make a low-effort post that would take 1000+ words to debunk why they're full of **** due to having to explain many nuances that people who have not sunk significant time into this space would need to understand firstly, and honestly, I really don't care enough now to do that again.

What I can tell you though is the space in DeFI is the first real product/market fit for Ethereum blockchain. Permissionless finance, which offers unique business models/value propositions that traditional finance cannot replicate, is being built in front of us as we speak. It's still very small, maybe 7-10,000 users at the moment, but already the growth this year in that space has money/finance protocols locking in 3B+ worth of assets, going up 30% month over month as we speak. The token models are completely different from ICO's where they are now DAOS (decentralized autonomous organizations) where at a high level these protocols capture fees (revenues, real $ paid for txs on these chains) and that cash flow goes to the token holders. They (the token holders) also govern these platforms. It's completely fascinating and once again those even with traditional finance backgrounds could easily begin to model these out with DCF models & growth rates based on traction gained already. If you know where to look some of these models (P/E's) are already much cheaper than Wall St with growth rates 5x+. You don't even need to bake in "speculation" to see why you would want to have exposure to some of these protocols.

If you want to learn what kind of things are possible with DeFI I suggest researching a project called Synthetix. Anyone who has a traditional finance background, who spends maybe 2 hours really going down the wormhole of this project specifically, will likely have a lightbulb moment on why all this matters. To be very clear: I'm not saying buy this project, I learned there is zero upside to say what I am invested in on this forum, but what I am saying this is Exhibit A for just one vision/expressibility of what smart contracts + new economic models + composability and incentives can create and it gives you a glimpse of where this space can go. If you spend time looking at something like this and think: Nah this doesn't matter.. lol I don't know what to say haha. Hope that helps + you can understand why I can't really be bothered to except basically just give a nudge on where you'd begin to start looking if you're actually curious.

Anyway thread derail over I promise, back to TSLA

Tesla down another 100 pre. It really might be happening.

It's the same thing as always:
Watch the bulls disappear now, less confident in their thesis now that it's going down.

I'm about to put so you guys can just jump in and call for free money.

Tesla will follow the market for now, with a very high beta. It's what it does.

The long market buyup is why it went to $1700 instead of staying at $400
The tech selloff is why it lost 18% top to bottom in a day, we'd be at $1800 now if the tech market was strong instead of dumping yesterday.

In a post covid environment do all these tech gains just rewind back to pre covid levels but maybe with a little extra volatility everytime someone says virus?

This article full of jargon I don't understand makes me feel better about my, now put, position.....i think.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/go...version-market

You don't have to, just post it in either the Ethereum or Virtual currency thread. Regarding trolls and personal attacks; you have to learn to skip toxic posts and only respond to posts you want to respond to, otherwise you might have to spend all your waking hours on here. You are very much in control of the discussions you are having, just have some thick skin and don't feel obligated to read and respond to everything.

Looks ok to me for now


I would love for it to go under $1000

I'd love a sane crypto thesis (or a sane Tesla bull thesis) so please make the thread.

Except when its made in china and europe

Robinhood piles in?

— Musk (on Twitter)

: /

“Another government stimulus package is not in the best interests of the people”
— Musk


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He is clearly brilliant in using twitter, in manipulating his followers feelings and beliefs. How first-order simple appearing anything he puts out isn't really relevant, the game is scored on different rules.

I've followed this thread for a while and personally have no horse in the race other then I root for human ingenuity and success so I guess I feel the world would be a better place if Tesla, SpaceX and other Musk ventures are successful.

But what confuses me so much about the posts in this thread are I feel they are motivated from self interest and frustration that their thesis isn't correct and they'd rather be right then willing to be open minded. Whether the bears are right or wrong I've never seen so many people hope a corporation which I think is a net positive to society fails just so they are right about an individual. Is the stock overvalued? Probably, but I think despite Musks tweets, blunders or whatever we could point to I'd imagine or hope he is also inspiring future generations of engineers and entrepreneurs. It seems to me if you're resorting to personal attacks regarding his intelligence when SpaceX and Tesla employee some of the most incredibly brilliant engineers and scientist who say otherwise you might need to realize you're no longer being rational.

What confuses me so much about the posts in this thread is they are motivated from self interest (I am a better person because I believe in human ingenuity!) and they would rather refuse to examine the underlying reality of Tesla than be open minded.

He talks about being pro UBI so the low info citizens love him more and buy more of his cars or stocks.

Being pro UBI is the new shiny toy one parades around to get internet social brownie points and increase your social justice totem pole level.

It might actually be good business to throw it out there that you are pro UBI as a corporate CEO to feed the masses what they want to hear and buy your crap.

Is me stating I hope for something making the statement "I am a better person"? Can you not objectively see that you immediately attacked me for a post that stated nothing but my own personal opinion with no mention of me being better than anyone? That's what I'm trying to understand I don't get why that would bother you. Maybe you know something I truly don't I'm willing to listen it's why I'm here.

What is the underlying reality of tesla that I'm not being open minded to? I said I think it's overvalued but I wouldn't attack someone for feeling different and having a reasonable thesis why. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see it trading at 25% of the value in 2 years. I also wouldn't be that surprised to see it trading over 2K in 2 years. Saying it's a net positive to society is just my opinion. Maybe it wouldn't be but if not why? I'm simply stating if you're mad that it's trading where it is and your reasoning resorts to attacks perhaps you're too emotionally invested to be reasonable any longer.

I'm genuinely curious why I see many attacks on Musk's intelligence when incredibly intelligent people who know him personally I respect like Garrett Resiman say the exact opposite. Do you know something I don't or is simply frustration the stock price isn't what you want it to be. That's what I'm trying to get to.

Rather than seeing it as personal attacks you should see it as people simply trying to figure out what he's saying and why.