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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

07-21-2020 , 04:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Legend
I'm not in the industry so have no special insight but I continue to question whether tsla is going to make it, or going to zero. The biggest question I have is whether history will show they are solving the correct problems.

When Waymo has full level 5 and are working on implementing it internationally, is tsla even a part of the conversation? Does waymo ever get to level 5? Someone else? Is it 5 years or 25?

The reality for a lot of people is "my tsla auto drives me to work today" (the future is here not evenly distributed...). But does that even matter? Is the next gen of self driving unrelated to tsla tech?

There just seem to be massive open questions and the stock is valued like it is already the undisputed winner.
Can level 5 be done without AGI? If not, AGI tech is science fiction at the moment adopting a similar set of timelines and dreams as economically viable nuclear fusion plants 50 years ago.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
07-21-2020 , 07:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
I am stuck on an offside short position. I can manage risk in a way where if it goes to 2K, sure, I can live w/ that.. but what is the actual rebuttal to this, if any? This makes me really feel I should just close at a loss here and not risk potentially blowing up my portfolio on not managing this position correctly (My stop loss is hard @ 2.5K as far as $ goes)

I also posted similar around ~1200 where we've now entered a paradigm (bubble) that fundamentals (as far as revenue, profits) don't seem to matter, at least for now but looks like foreseeable future. If TSLA can be priced at ~1600, whats to stop it from being priced at ~5000? Remember It's 5x'd on 2Q of no real growth

The bears arguments (which I subscribed to for a long time were)

1. Musk is fraudulent (rebuttal: No one cares in the mkt. Including the SEC).
2. Missed deadlines are prevalent (rebuttal: No one cares in the mkt. There is always another carrot stick or growth story behind it)
3. Not cash flow positive/won't make a profit (rebuttal: No one cares in the mkt. Money is free/debt is free)


What is an actual bear argument as of today? Just asking the thread am I the only one who is still stupidly short this on any level, given the potential SP500 listing (which is very likely). It just seems this is drawing live for a very big float squeeze, but I want to make sure I am not missing anything here before acting; serious analysis/replies (if you have any) would be appreciated -- thanks
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
07-21-2020 , 07:44 PM
The way to deal with the risk if you want to keep a longer term short is simply to buy calls. Some close to the money that cover your position and some way out that you profit on a move-against
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
07-21-2020 , 08:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
The way to deal with the risk if you want to keep a longer term short is simply to buy calls. Some close to the money that cover your position and some way out that you profit on a move-against
What expiration(s)?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
07-21-2020 , 08:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcrew
Can level 5 be done without AGI? If not, AGI tech is science fiction at the moment adopting a similar set of timelines and dreams as economically viable nuclear fusion plants 50 years ago.
Yes, I think lvl 5 auto driving can be done without AGI. It may require some additional help (better road markings, more precise GPS, vehicle to vehicle NFCs and so on are all possibilities) that make it a lot easier for "cars" (more transport pods that that point) to navigate the roadways.

I'm envisioning a system not too unlike Cities Skylines (simcity's spiritual successor) with mods that allow the player to route and manage traffic fairly precisely.

I think that's the realistic route to lvl 5. I don't think it makes sense for us to have this weird situation where we have both lvl 5 AI and human drivers competing for lanes on the NJ Turnpike. It complicates things for everyone involved.
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07-21-2020 , 09:13 PM
you guys are crazy for shorting this stock market. Wait for it to roll over!
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07-22-2020 , 10:23 AM
https://electrek.co/2020/07/21/tesla...iscount-china/

alexa, what is channel stuffing?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
07-22-2020 , 04:23 PM
104m profit announced. Eligible for S&P 500. Let's gogogogogogogo
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
07-22-2020 , 04:37 PM
Regs ITT where linking analysts saying Tesla were gonna lose a cpl hundred mill.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
07-22-2020 , 04:48 PM
I'm not sure we moon from here, but we sure as **** aren't going down.

I would guess the price is 1500-1750 next week, which would usually be a lolwide range, but its Tesla
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07-22-2020 , 04:49 PM
woooo! of course profit, u think a little nothin like covid would stop big daddy musk? regulatory credits all time high, accounts receivable all time high, we gettin musked. hope the pump stays through eow have some call spreads

not gonna listen to the call unfortunately please post highlights itt
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07-22-2020 , 04:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
regulatory credits, not car sales, but everyone knew Musk would be reporting a profit
Anybody know how deep this well is? 600 MM of credits for 2019 and already 800MM for the first half of this year.
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07-22-2020 , 04:58 PM
look at r&d and stockbased comp
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07-22-2020 , 05:06 PM
My credit put spreads are FIRE!!!!!

I might even have to buy a few shares thanks to all these options I've done on this stock.
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07-22-2020 , 05:10 PM
omg that profit. it all makes sense now.
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07-22-2020 , 05:17 PM
5% decrease in sales rev y/y lol. Just up 600% in that time

I dunno, I kind of find a lot of the reaction to be very bizarre. Its all about how they DEFIED covid. SURPRISE profit. SMASHED forecast. Its such an underdog story. Musk is confirmed one of the most powerful people in the world. Half a billion in reg credits?? lolk. They originally predicted like 150k deliveries this quarter. The shutdown lasted like a month before Trump lost his mind. The narrative is always spun to Musks benefit.

How are their reg credits almost as large as their capex lol. I dunno, shits wild. I'm mostly on the sidelines, only have 1 2021 put that I'll probably sell tomorrow for -25%
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07-22-2020 , 05:23 PM
Kazuya, curious what you ended up doing?
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07-22-2020 , 05:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcrew
Anybody know how deep this well is? 600 MM of credits for 2019 and already 800MM for the first half of this year.
https://electrek.co/2019/05/07/tesla...ion-standards/
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07-22-2020 , 05:39 PM
my guess is they somehow sold those credits forward. car sales were down substantially q1 & q2, yet credit sales were up ~150%.
would also explain accounts receivable.
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07-22-2020 , 05:41 PM
$48 million in FSD revenue recognized. What a joke.
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07-22-2020 , 06:03 PM
23mm diluted shares added over the last year. at today's price that's nearly $40b.
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07-22-2020 , 06:04 PM
The worst part of all of this???

their ****ing deck goes from left to right
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07-22-2020 , 06:09 PM
this is the worst "good" quarter i've seen in 15 years.
but there's maybe a few 100 people on the planet who look into those numbers, so whatever.
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07-22-2020 , 06:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BooLoo
this is the worst "good" quarter i've seen in 15 years.
but there's maybe a few 100 people on the planet who look into those numbers, so whatever.
Nothing sweeter than bear tears.
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07-22-2020 , 06:21 PM
Welp I'm listening. He so full of **** it's pretty incredible the following he has
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