And I am trying to explain to you density matters, not just $/kwh(of capacity presumably).

I still think this is most likely the case. At most Tesla may be able to get some custom cells made with slightly altered chemistry but a breakthrough battery cell chemistry would involve CapEx that is beyond TSLA's capabilities now.

F1 cars have been using ultracapacitors (they call them super capacitors but the tech is basically the same) in their hybrid engines. Ultracapacitor technology isn't that new and it is pretty plausible for Tesla to incorporate into their battery packs without fundamentally altering the battery cells.

Market the Ultracapacitors as value "add" features

$4000/year DLC to enable "Ultra Turbo Insane" (the rapid discharging part of the ultracapacitors, improving power)
$1000/year DLC to enable "Ultra Charging" (The charging/power recovery part, improving efficiency)

I am referring to the mainstream rumors, Jeff Dahn, Shirley Meng etc.

Maybe it is that simple, a few combinations of small improvements, 10% here, 10% there etc. We will see! =)

I think they are in production now. Maybe for use in Semis they intend to use themselves so they can take batteries in for replacement easily if they find some problems. I think they intend to show the production line in action in September.

Sure. It is all guesswork at this time. But there is a lot of smoke and if there is a not a big fire, some statements will seem very off. I guess here the camps have different opinions if Musk is serial liar or just sometimes a bit optimistic. But Musk sure has been hyping battery day...

Factory area per cell line or per cell output. For example the DBE hype.
We will see. What are you predictions? <300Wh/kg >$100 cell?

Fwiw I recommend this channel:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIF...HyC-lMnb7Fm_jw

Putting your cart in the Ford Mustang Mach-E?

For what its worth, you said the same thing about the Chevrolet Volt, Chevrolet Bolt, Jaguar i-pace, Porsche Taycan, and Nissan Leaf. Some of those aren't even in production now, and the others are selling in cancellation-worthy numbers and will be eventually culled from the lineup.

lol ok. no comment.
ok just 1, b/c Shrley Meng's twitter is a borderline tesla bull parody account. look at this:
https://twitter.com/YingShirleyMen1/...754724866?s=20
2 thoughts:
1. wow, 4 years of research can finally be revealed! 350 wh/kg at an AMAZING 350 cycles! Party! Current Panasonic batteries do 700 cycles. If you don't understand why this is funny then I have a bridge to sell you. It's way funnier than just 50% less cycles fyi.
2. Why would she ever have the audacity to post that just 2 months ago knowing Tesla has your magical battery? What an embarrassment.
lol ok.
lol, you can't be serious.

this isn't about musk's love for lying. what you are saying is literally impossible to be true. You have to be delirious to see smoke for current battery production with the stats you claim. It's literally a joke.

Like I said, no one knows. I have no predictions.
But here are some helpful facts:
a. Model 3 currently has around 250wh/kg. As do most top end EV's give or take.
b. No company reveals their $/kwh. You certainly won't hear an exact # from Tesla. But current estimates are around $150/kwh. (ICE is around $100)

My guess, which is irrelevant as I am just making this up, is that we hear:
1. major focus on a tesla only manufacturing line, with supply lines close or developed on site.
2. excitement how that fits into tesla solar vision
3. currently using CATL but grand promises about in-house tesla breakthroughs coming to a future near you.
4. focusing on the 1m mile stat (yawn)
5. focusing on a reduction/elimination of cobalt use (actually great)
6. an amazing 10-15% improvement in energy density (that everyone expects to happen yearly anyway) and how "finally" tesla became the first to figure out how to power their model Y.

And that FSD delusion has been debunked already recently.
Nobody will achieve functional lvl 5 in the next 5 years.
If someone completes lvl 4 in the next 5 years, it will be licensed out like every other such tech in history. There won't be a lvl 4monopoly.

I guess I was incorrect in my assessment of you. My bad. Won’t do the same misstake again. This thread never fails to dissappoint.

Fwiw 10-15% yearly improvement in energy density from 2017 and 250Wh/kg would be higher than my estimate. We will see at battery day.

You are disappointed because someone educated on the subject disagrees with you lol. You should be excited instead

The musk fandom is somewhat analogous to the Rick and Morty crowd

Fwiw 250 is what the model 3 had as of the beginning of this year. Not sure what system of math brings a 15% increase to >350 by battery day.

I don’t have skin in the game re tesla stock and am just here for the entertainment. I’m rooting for them to improve the world and I hope they’re liquid enough to buyout whichever companies actually make said next-gen batteries at a premium.

Your inability to consider new information about a topic you don’t understand speaks volumes.
The appropriate response when someone gives you free info that improves your understanding should be “thank you.” You’re done getting it from me, think whatever you want.

I've been here before. Then you get blasted for the full 2500 3x in a row on 95% freebies

If I don't close them out, but if there is any value left in them I will close them out for a loss, just not full loss. You can also sometimes roll them further out for a credit. (Sold an MRNA 60/65 for 3.2 credit June 2 for July 2nd expiration - rolled it out to july 24 for .1 extra credit because it was under $65. Closed it out at 90% profit) But there is a risk if the stock just completely tanks, I suppose I would be hosed.

And max loss is only $2215 on the .57 credit x5 contracts.

Where has it been debunked?

many consider Waymo, early Lvl 4. Still a ways to go .

Tesla level 2.5

Those selling options on Tesla, how much collateral do you need to have? Not going to do it, but maybe one day.

This post from 5 days ago you ignored (but went quiet about FSD afterwards)



Also still waiting for your

Imo stop projecting.

What energy density did the Model 3 cells have in 2017? What has changed in the chemistry of the cells since 2017?

https://electrek.co/2016/11/02/tesla...est-elon-musk/
http://www.influitenergy.com/the-spe...y-chemistries/
https://cleantechnica.com/files/2020...graph-BNEF.png

Ok, I am giving up on you guys. See you after battery investor day and we will compare who had an inability to consider new information...

yes can we get back on track please? tsla up 120 lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nb2tebYAaOA

fyp, just use the last part "Nb2tebYAaOA" and surround with the youtube code going forward to embed

Some WSB Tesla Infinity squeeze dd

Anyone have any thoughts on Rivian and their ability to impact Tesla ? I hadn’t heard of them until recently but the tech in their electric cars combined with the funding and infrastructure they seem to have in place is interesting.

Rivian and Nikola are practically trying to copy Elon's Tesla playbook.

If they succeed, it's actually good news for Tesla, at least in the short and medium term.

As I've been saying for years, Tesla has a virtually unassailable position/brand as the thoroughbred fast EV brand of the future. The more players that get into the market, the more infrastructure falls into place and the bigger Tesla's addressable market grows.

Thank you, surprised i didn't get rick rolled...

Posted this because everyone ITT is an AV expert, thought i would share the experience of an actual SME who worked with Elon...convo starts in the last quarter on the interview, the whole thing is great/fun listen

There is a reason Lex keeps laughing at everything he says, because he realizes everything Jim said was a ridiculous had wave towards the issue. There wasn't a whole lot of information relative to the Tesla discussion. He didn't give a timeline beyond in 10 years we might take AV for granted, which I think most bears see 10 years as the earliest wed have full autonomy.

I'm not in the industry so have no special insight but I continue to question whether tsla is going to make it, or going to zero. The biggest question I have is whether history will show they are solving the correct problems.

When Waymo has full level 5 and are working on implementing it internationally, is tsla even a part of the conversation? Does waymo ever get to level 5? Someone else? Is it 5 years or 25?

The reality for a lot of people is "my tsla auto drives me to work today" (the future is here not evenly distributed...). But does that even matter? Is the next gen of self driving unrelated to tsla tech?

There just seem to be massive open questions and the stock is valued like it is already the undisputed winner.