Hot take? Tesla to slide today, perhaps a little more tomorrow, and then rise until earnings.

on thursday i'm going to buy some 7/17 far out of the money call spreads, on the incredibly dumb thesis that stonk gets pushed up to ridiculous levels on friday when options expire. good or bad?

rumors floating that they're going to close fremont down temporarily to retool some of the production lines. bears say it's because of lack of demand, bulls say idk what. "leaked" docs to electrek show 130+ covid cases in fremont factory, the guess being that this will be the excuse to shut down for a bit.

Tesla have long said they planned to make upgrades to fremont and one of the reasons you bears got wrecked in the latest delivery notice is because they used the time when the factory was shut down to make a number of these upgrades.

Massive lol @ anyone who claims there's a lack of demand.

I suspect this might help Tesla.

They were building model Ys in a tent and they still cut prices

We won't rly know about demand I guess until q3 or q4 deliveries... Do you want to make a guess and we can check back in October? I'll guess 100k q3 deliveries

100k deliveries is quite a bullish take since there's no demand. It would make it the 2nd highest in the companies history.

i think 100k is pretty bearish? guidance is 500k for the year so to meet that q3 q4 have to be like 150k each. there are also 2 factories pumping out cars, and if demand matches production then there's no reason why they shouldn't produce and sell like 130k cars at minimum.

isn't tesla a hyper growth company? what's your delivery estimate? plug it into this chart and see if it looks like hypergrowth

You and I obviously have a very different definition of "no demand".

Assuming there's no factory shutdowns I'll take Tesla well north of 100k. I'll estimate 160k Q3 deliveries.

Do we even trust these reported delivery numbers?

No a Biden win wouldn't be good for any company. He wants to raise corporate taxes from 21% to 27% and tax dividends. It could/probably will cause a sell off. If you look at all the garbage he wants to introduce you can watch Peter Schiff new video - he went through a pretty detailed expiation of it.

This company has the ability to completely change the automotive industry - If the tech they have is true. 1 million mile battery - level 5 autonomous car - it's own insurance company - and a taxi service.

You could see tesla go to up $2000 if it is profitable this quarter and is added to the S&P 500.

I guess I mean no demand relative to valuation. It seems like everyone who has a price target anywhere near current valuation or higher is expecting a notable increase in deliveries in the next year or two and I'm not rly seeing it. Are you?

Idk about batteries (from what I've read they just buy batteries from catl and Panasonic?), but wrt autonomous driving man they are not close. Elon just said they're rewriting all of it! Also icymi autopilot ran into a cop car today.

The news out on Biden today looks very good for all companies in clean energy business. Lots of subsidises for infrastructure incoming.


Most high prices targets are because of the potential FSD has, not because of the profit margins on cars.

As for deliveries you'd have to define notable increases. I think they make/beat guidance this year (assuming no covid shutdowns) I also think they'll sell every car they make until they have a much higher production capacity. 2021 with Giga Shanghai already at more than 3k a week and another 2 factories starting production it won't be long before they're 1m+

You're wrong on batteries otherwise every EV maker would have a similar range to Tesla.

Idk man, for 1m+ they have to deliver 250k in a quarter and I just don't see it happening anytime soon. Competition is there in EU and I seriously doubt the Berlin factory will overcome that. China ran out of sr+ orders and had to scale back production in June. There have been worldwide price cuts on all models, and of course model Y just had a price cut mere months after they became available. In each country they enter there's an initial backlog that gets filled and then very low sustained demand (see eu-evs.com, or uhh US deliveries).

Price cuts are literally part of almost every Tesla product launch. As they get better and better at battery production the cost per KW/H goes down so they can offer it for cheaper. The 3k cut to the SUV people are talking about is exactly what Tesla said they planned to do on launch. Tesla is simply lowering prices as the cost to produce them come down.


The competition is Ford ending their relationship with Rivian and scaling back all moves into the EV market due to billions in losses. Or BMW's new I3 coming in at 80k but only around 250m range so way behind the model Y and not even available in the United States.

Then this beauty today: https://insideevs.com/news/433908/vo...head-software/
and this: https://www.motor1.com/news/433598/j...ctric-delayed/

He is 100% correct.


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They don't even have lvl 4 and won't be the first to have it.

that's the beauty of tesla. it's a state of mind. the company is whatever you need it to be.

the company is, at the same time, the absolute leader in battery technology, but also buying their batteries from other companies and blaming them, when tesla has production issues.

look at how elon sold that 1m mile battery and every news outlet was praising tesla while the catl ceo was like "well, actually that's our battery and we're open to orders from any car maker."

you were lucky if you found that info somewhere in the footnotes of whatever article you read.

I read somewhere that they have like 1.65 in profit over the last 3 quarters. Seems legit

What's the explanation for why Teslas have such better range than their peers?

More efficient drive train, better or more aggressive (at the cost of battery lifespan) battery management. It is questionable whether their range is much better as their EPA ratings are much higher than real world experience.

https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews...tesla-model-s/

https://twitter.com/Paul91701736/sta...983110/photo/1

What evidence do you have for this?

The issue was with the ability of those companies to scale up to the type of numbers Tesla needs in the future. Calling them out worked since they soon after signed a deal which includes minimum production obligations.

Secondly there is much more that goes into a battery than just the longevity such as costs per KW/H/ energy density/power output/charge rate etc

Tesla already has a million mile battery so no it doesn't belong to CATL and if someone has a MMB with a higher cost per KW/H, lower power output and slower charge then it's simply not the same thing. Those are only a few of the factors that go into producing the most efficient batteries and Tesla leads in all of them. You seem to think life cycle is the be all and end all, it's not.

yeah sure. like i said, whatever you need them to be.

they can also test you for all diseases with a single drop of blood.

Then maybe you have an explanation as to why no competitor has the same range as Tesla since they all just buy batteries from someone else?