I am looking to start shorting $TSLA sometime this year. Haven't touched it since sold stock @$920 in previous run up (before it tanked, then pumped). My default is to buy puts, but considering other structures.

Do you have defined risk?

Aren't there scenarios where shorting near-term puts loses a ton more than buying LEAPS gains?

Disagree about the caliber of Tesla FSD software engineers - they brought in outstanding people from SpaceX to focus on FSD. Not sure who you are referring to specifically though.

Agree timeline is now 2021+ (ranging to never).

At this point, no. It could zero overnight and I still win.

It might be slightly riskier in a year perhaps if I have to roll the LEAPs forward.

Isn't there a pretty good chance Musk winds up in jail at this point? Investors losing 300b is a different stratosphere from investors losing 20-30b, the number is too big

people aren't going to just say "ahh well haha that market was crazy bro" when this implodes

I bought some shares because I heard the autonomous driving is just about complete, hope Elon is true to his word.

I'm just getting into option trading and have a couple noob questions. I was thinking of buying some Tesla puts as my first options trade, but the premiums are ridiculous.

For example, looking at the option chain, I see the Oct 16th put at a strike price of $1,300 selling for $176. So the cost of the option assumes 100 shares, or a total price of $17,600, correct? That means that to breakeven, I would need the share price to hit $1,124 (1,300-176=1,124) by October 16th. I would profit for any stock price below $1,124, lose money at any stock price between $1,124 and $1,300, and lose the entire option premium for any price >$1,300.

Am I making any basic mistakes here? Feels crazy for such a far out of the money put option to be so expensive.

Sorry for the basic questions, but I guess everyone starts somewhere. I just want to make sure I'm understanding this correctly before I throw down $20k (or not). The premium prices seem ridiculously high.

Yeah seems right. High share prices mean only people with huge accounts can trade them unless its some sort of wsb yolo.

https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/

This is a great site that shows your profit and loss on any options trade so if you ever put a trade on, run it through this so you dont fk up your math.

We have a noob questions thread for this type of stuff.

Many analysts believe Tesla's actual value is like 300 dollars. So paying premium is worth it you'd make a killing if Tesla dips in coming months. Of course Tesla is highly volatile so who knows.

I would not be buying any TSLA options right now, prices are crazy due to IV. For example, approx 3 weeks ago, TSLA is at 1000 and I bought a 910 put expiring 12 days out, for $6.50 or so. Now, looking at options expiring 15 days out, for a similar 9% or so drop, options are $24. So if we consider the time factor difference, it looks like premiums are up 300% on comparable options from end of June.

I thought the valuation was a joke before the recent 100% rise, but really cant see a reason it can't just keep rocketing.

MY price cut by $3000 - because that's what you do when you have infinite demand.

Yup as suspected this prob means model y backlog mostly eaten through. I predict Elon announces Texas factory this week to keep the pump going and to make cybertruck the focus of the earnings call the following week.

Because Tesla has never lowered the prices before. They lowered the price of Model 3, Model S and Model X in May:
https://electrek.co/2020/05/27/tesla...prices-lineup/
And last year:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/16/tesl...s-model-x.html
Etc etc...

Shorts: lowered price -> no demand -> stock is overvalued
Longs: lowered price -> high margins -> stock is undervalued
Cats: lowered price -> I’m the cat -> cats are great

Musk now richer than Buffett.

#7

EV is a hot market right now. Hedge funds are fomo in - talk of stock split - robin hood investors. I could see this getting out of control.

It will take some bad news - really bad news to drop this stock.

I like TSLA - I think they make a fantastic product and I hope they succeed. I didn't buy the stock but I did a lot of option plays on it that have so far made me pretty good money in the form of credit put spreads.

This describes how dumb longs are in terms of very basic things. They laws of supply and demand are very simple and taught in high school (maybe even middle school).


I wish it didn't tilt me seeing such incredibly dumb/cucky people get rewarded, but it does. I am weak like that.

Those dumb longs have become insanely rich. You missed the boat but there will be other stocks. TSLA makes an insanely good product - and I wouldn't be surprised if this stock consolidates for a while and pushes higher. I may even considering buying some on a pull back. A stock split would also be a good idea.

The stock market does not reflect the current market but the future of the current market. The future for TSLA is very bright.

Give it time. Longs are very fortunate that we are currently in a market in which when a clear fraud is found, it is +EV to long the fraud until the parabolic move up. See Wirecard, LFIN, etc.

This is why I short puts into the parabolic.

Care to present any sort of future scenario that justifies a market cap of even half of what Tesla's currently valued at? How many cars do they have to sell at what profit margin at some point in the future?

I've licked my wounds on the puts I bought a couple of years ago. Not touching this one until some sort of rationality returns to the market. I'll probably miss the big drop but that's ok. Some shorts with more guts than me are going to make a killing, eventually.

it would have to be half the car market share which wouldn't be possible. But you're missing the long term goal of tesla. He wants driverless cars which could impact uber / lyft. Basically tesla will be an entertainment system and you just call one up and it takes you where you want to go. That is the long term goal for tesla for now. If he achieves that goal, which he could - no one will even need to own a car. Of course competition could be an issue, but no one has taken down AAPL yet.

Go ahead and short it if you want, I find it foolish to short any of these parabolic stocks - it's much easier to just go long and sell once it starts to break down.

Just like SHOP / NVDA / AAPL / MSFT / AMZN

And BYND - which is starting a pull back so that is one you could of shorted if you wanted - or trimmed your long position.

I don't really short stocks that often, it's not part of my long term strategy and found it to be very nerve wracking and uneasy to be short longer than a few days.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1O0E...1efeyhebR/view

Where is this from? Ark Capital?



Is Q3 2020 a bearish scenario?

From this blogpost:
https://teslainvestor.blogspot.com/2...-strategy.html

I don't know about insanely rich, but some have made out very well, thanks for the lesson on how valuations work bud