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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

07-02-2020 , 03:04 PM
what in the actual ****
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
07-02-2020 , 03:08 PM
he's been walking all over them for years. they've shown they'll do nothing. of course he will keep taunting them.
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07-02-2020 , 03:28 PM
Long Holiday weekend SEC won't be able to respond to his tweet until Monday LOL
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07-02-2020 , 03:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperSwag
Wow
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07-02-2020 , 03:56 PM
Im in 1050 puts for 17th at 11.50 avg. California is breaking records, its possible they might try to shut down the plant again and Elons twitter rampage adds a great backdoor draw.
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07-02-2020 , 06:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by syndr0me
I think it's fair to say that accounting fraud is required for the BK thesis at this point, id also say accounting fraud probability is something like this

Pure fiction via massive off-balance sheet transactions - 15%

Fabricated sales/self-dealing sales - 30%

Intentionally creating support to deflate liability balances (ie warranty reserve/RVG) or other questionable but not outright fraudulent accounting games - 95%


First one is def BK, second one is maybe BK depending on level, and third one is CH11 at worst but way down the road.


Just my opinion. The best argument against accounting fraud is that Elon isn't smart enough to do it, but I definitely think Elon could find a cult cuckboy to help him do it.


If you want pure tin foil type stuff. One of the BEST way to do this would be to use Tesla to launder money. I know that is super out there but all the weird missing copper stories + weird trips to Mexico and South America + weird rumors of Elon and El Chapo wife + obvious drug habit and manic personality + The weird AP/AR/Accrual ratios that don't make sense.


This would be difficult, and very unlikely, and it would require using the proceeds to pay off-balance sheet liabilities (which would, as a result, create a larger than actual gross margin and profit).


Super tin foil, clearly
Interesting post. Is anyone knowledgeable enough on this topic to estimate how likely it would be to pull any of those off, considering people are fully aware that this might be happening?

In particular, I'd imagine a fraud like this is much more difficult for Tesla to pull off, for example compared to Wirecard, since auditors are likely much more rigorous at Tesla (at least I know I would be, as an auditor).
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07-02-2020 , 06:22 PM
... and then you ask too many questions, they switch to another accounting firm and you're looking for a new job.
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07-02-2020 , 06:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Van Gogh
In particular, I'd imagine a fraud like this is much more difficult for Tesla to pull off, for example compared to Wirecard, since auditors are likely much more rigorous at Tesla (at least I know I would be, as an auditor).
That assumption would be wrong; otherwise you couldn't get away with reducing capex despite adding two additional factories.

We are also talking about a company that no D&O insurer wants to insure.
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07-03-2020 , 02:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperSwag

Lollllllllllllllll I. Am. Dying.

i cant believe Twitter is free.


Mori, if TSLA crashes soon won’t your put losses crush your leaps? I know you were super super bearish for a while but the trading doesn’t match the thesis?

I’m not attacking, I’m trying to understand your thought process and how you’ve been setting up a bearish trade to make money?

Only way that makes sense to me is taking large risk selling short term puts , putting into leaps hoping for a crash in like 2023 and by then you will have so much $ in the leaps that your sold puts are offset. But was years-out collapse your thesis?
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07-03-2020 , 06:31 AM
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07-03-2020 , 08:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thethrill009
Lollllllllllllllll I. Am. Dying.

i cant believe Twitter is free.


Mori, if TSLA crashes soon won’t your put losses crush your leaps? I know you were super super bearish for a while but the trading doesn’t match the thesis?

I’m not attacking, I’m trying to understand your thought process and how you’ve been setting up a bearish trade to make money?

Only way that makes sense to me is taking large risk selling short term puts , putting into leaps hoping for a crash in like 2023 and by then you will have so much $ in the leaps that your sold puts are offset. But was years-out collapse your thesis?
No because it is 1) partially covered by a small corresponding equity short position, and 2) I have a whole bunch of free and clear leaps that largely outnumber my shorted puts now. Even if it were to zero overnight, I would make out like a bandit despite getting putted.
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07-05-2020 , 09:57 AM
Elon seems to be very defensive about Maxwell. Why would he be so defensive if he was innocent. Apparently another story came out that he actually did go to Epstein's mansion. I find this all very strange. Maxine will tell us truth regardless of whatever bullshit these people are saying on twitter.
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07-05-2020 , 04:57 PM
Tesla store selling shorts for $69.420...

...sold out. The cult just cannot donate enough
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07-05-2020 , 06:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperSwag
Elon seems to be very defensive about Maxwell. Why would he be so defensive if he was innocent. Apparently another story came out that he actually did go to Epstein's mansion. I find this all very strange. Maxine will tell us truth regardless of whatever bullshit these people are saying on twitter.
Epstein was a lot more than an underage pimp. He was a fixer, connected to everyone, bringing people together, doing favors for favors and blackmail material and power in return. Teenage girls were just one leg of what he did.

He claimed to a reporter that he was instrumental in finding Musk wealthy backers when things got tough, as well as key staff. I wouldn't be surprised if they were involved, Epstein amazingly had fingers in most pies.
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07-06-2020 , 06:08 AM
wow u guys are getting owned over and over again. conspiracies itt are getting very fruity indeed
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07-06-2020 , 07:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xkf
Tesla store selling shorts for $69.420...

...sold out. The cult just cannot donate enough

Lol. Respect.
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07-06-2020 , 11:34 AM
Pretty crazy whats happening. 250bb valuation, company is down like 80 billion on paper. Biggest car company in the world but has no market share. Big boy competition maturing. All promises broken.

I'm glad I've been dropping any puts I buy after one morning against. Down the minimum trying to go against this.
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07-06-2020 , 11:54 AM
We went from funding secured $420 to reaching $1420 in what a year?

Stable genius.
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07-06-2020 , 12:49 PM
Elon is the Howard Hughes of his generation, has ties to elite society at every level and a willing retail and consumer cult behind him, basically the leftie geek's Trump. Seems like hes basically untouchable at this point and knows it, probably involved with stuff beyond SEC's paygrade and who besides them would even want to burst the TSLA bubble and show the emperor to have no clothes when its like the number one crazy story stock of the everything bubble?

The fake it till you make it approach brought disaster close a few times but not sure what the bear thesis is now? EV ads are everywhere and competition is arriving fast yet stock is at 1330, its not a pure fraud as they actual make something people seem to like, his name is used everywhere as a low res proxy for Genius, and the only cracks showing are in Elon's smile.

Anyone still short or planning re-entry soon?
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07-06-2020 , 02:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedQueenDream
The fake it till you make it approach brought disaster close a few times but not sure what the bear thesis is now?
The bear thesis hasn't changed:
1. They trade at an absurd multiple for an automaker that is barely growing revenue. The software/tech/exponential growth story is nonsense.
2. They make unreliable shitboxes in a tent.
3. They've never turned an annual profit, despite large subsidies, a cult fanbase willing to happily buy shitboxes made in a tent with no QC, abysmal service, and having a near monopoly on the high-end EV market.
4. Widespread, serious competition is finally here. Look at European numbers with the I-PACE, e-tron, Taycan, and extrapolate that forward to 100+ new models across all market segments over the next two years (VW ID.3, Polestar 2, Mustang Mach-E, etc., etc.).
5. Ridiculous number of accounting and governance red flags
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07-06-2020 , 02:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Van Gogh

...I'd imagine a fraud like this is much more difficult for Tesla to pull off, for example compared to Wirecard, since auditors are likely much more rigorous at Tesla (at least I know I would be, as an auditor).

Cute fact: the Chairman of Tesla (Robyn Denholm) has an accounting background and previously worked at Arthur Andersen (the firm was Enron’s auditor before it surrendered its license in the USA).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wikipedia

In 2002, the firm voluntarily surrendered its licenses to practice as Certified Public Accountants in the United States after it was found guilty of crimes in the firm's auditing of Enron, an energy corporation based in Texas, which had filed for bankruptcy in 2001. In 2005, the Supreme Court of the United States unanimously reversed Arthur Andersen's conviction due to serious errors in the trial judge's instructions to the jury that convicted the firm.

The former consultancy and outsourcing practice of the firm separated from the firm's accountancy practice and split from Andersen Worldwide, in 2000, when it rebranded to Accenture, as it continues to operate.
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07-06-2020 , 04:21 PM
Tesla is awesome
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07-06-2020 , 07:39 PM
Stock is nuts. Disappointed in myself for not going hard enough in calls
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