no way they get 15k+ in China in June. I expect it to be lower/equal to May so 25k China

probably 25k NA

so 25k china + 25K NA ...65k is top

honestly - i doubt it matters. the company is a zombie.

only thing that matters is how long and to what extend retail investors are going to believe the story.
they could sell 50k and the stock could still rally to 2000 on some new big thing.

could definitely be the case which would be pretty funny. confidence is pretty decent for EU but not for the other regions. NA is even more of a black box than China.

yeah i agree, but i think it matters with respect to the question of when does stonk price come back to reality and how can i make $ on it. also divorced from $ but when will everyone more or less agree that elon isn't a genius visionary engineer and actually kinda sux.

Funny list from the only major analyst who had the correct Wirecard price target.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/06/...ext-Wirecard-/

It's actually free (just needs to register...worthwhile too since ft seems to be one of the few major pubs skeptical and rational of Tesla ), but the he gave a list on signs of a major fraud and the list was tailor made about Tesla. Some on the list were:

1. Massively promotional CEO who actively looks for publicity and spends a lot of time courting Wall Street/investors etc and is very media savvy
.
.
4. Glossy future projections that have a habit over a long period of being proven to be too optimistic
.
.
7. Unusual or unverified and large Receivables in a business where the product is exchanged for cash up front
.
.
11. High employee turnover, especially in the LEGAL and FINANCE areas. Co-founders or Board members leaving.
.
.
17. Loss making. Ideally never made a profit but likes to pretend it did or failing that, that it will for sure in 2-3 years due to highly questionable new products. But the 2-3 years gets pushed out constantly

LOL at Elon tweeting Bezos. Amazon will crush Tesla when they get self driving. Bezos about to be a trillionaire.

low 80k would be quite an achievement and outright unbelievable if delivered making profit

Seems that factset analysts forgot about MY or assume very low MY deliveries. According to Troy the highest MY VIN is 23500 which could indicate ~19k MY production in Q2:
https://mobile.twitter.com/TroyTesli...37142513528834

My own guess is 84k deliveries in Q2. With cost savings from Freemont downtime, minus less euro credits, and maybe by using some of all that deferred revenue I have a feeling that they will squeeze out a profit in Q2. This quarter is a tricky one to predict.

Been debating this theory last couple days. What if China invited Tesla into their country not to necessarily market them but to just copy their technology. They then kick Tesla out of country. They have tons of cobalt mining so their infrastructure is all set. I could be wrong though are Tesla cars hot with Chinese people? like many other brands?

So far Jan-May 2020 is looking decent for Model 3:


My guess is that June-Dec is gonna be even better given how Shanghai is ramping and how the car seems to be received in China. I am thinking ~100k Model 3 MIC in H2.

Cobalt will die quicker than oil - Tesla or not.

Re cobalt, Your statement makes no sense - any advanced tech china would steal would REPLACE cobalt or at least reduce dependency on it. Not sure how that would help China’s cobalt trade monopoly.


But it’s possible NIO can benefit from EV manufacturing trade secrets.

It would be an insanely good quarter if your predictions come true.

Although all of this would not justify the current valuation. Tesla needs to ramp up massively in order to justify the valuation in my opinion.

It's ridiculously high at the moment which is all due to a liquidity pump, but even lower valuations need higher revenue numbers.

I don't doubt that they'll achieve them at some point, but I don't think it's going to be in 2021.

Lots of deliveries based on twitter/reddit. Still lots of quality issues with model Ys and decent number of people rejecting delivery. Also people ordering this week and getting delivery before eoq e.g. https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaModelY...r_to_delivery/

Still think they print a good delivery number and q2 profit at the expense of going through their entire model Y backlog, gonna buy some shitcalls sometime this week before Thurs, not advice ofc bc I'm dumb

The bull thesis is that Tesla will be ramping very fast after Q2. With Shanghai ramped, with Freemont Y being ramped, with Shanghai Y coming online in Q4/Q1 and ramping fast, with Giga Berlin coming online mid 2021 and Terafactory Austin maybe coming online around 2022.

The big question is if demand can ramp as fast as Tesla is trying to ramp supply. Elon is forecasting 50%/y for the next 10 years, which is Ludicrous. Tesla bull sentiment seems to be 40%/y with is also Insane, I would be happy with Chill Mode around 30%/y =) I think 50%/y for the next 3 years is pretty reasonable, but at some point they should reach diminishing returns...

Everything is always imminently ramping and always falling short of even the low end of projections.

- Model 3 was ramping to 5000/week by the end of 2017 (result: 100/week).
- Model 3 was ramping to be 10,000/week at end of 2018 with "no doubt" (result: 1/3 of that)
- FSD was ramping to be "feature complete" by the end of 2019: (result: total failure)
- 1 million autonomous robotaxis were ramping to be ready to be the end of this year (result: total failure)
- Solar was ramping to be "1000/week" by the end of 2019 (result: a handful)

I could list 20 imminent ramps that were pure fraud.

always be ramping

elonmusk dot today is ramping

Ramping is the new synergizing.

Random, funny to me, but not really funny in general, also a bit douchey

i was talking to someone a week or two ago about how small a population (% wise) when log scale is used that these conditions are met (def made some awful bayes' theorem jokes too):


1) The scenario is an appropriate time to use log scale,
2) The person using log scale understands log scale, and
3) The person consuming the information from 2, understands how to interpret log scale

dude has quadrupled down on "covid no big deal" -- there is 0% chance he lets his company print poor deliveries or earnings. gonna go all out, print a profit, spike the ball all over covid.

btw reports of people getting calls with their model Y suddenly available for pick up the day of, and if they don't pick it up they will get bumped to the back of the queue and it will be delivered to someone else.

https://electrek.co/2020/06/29/tesla...obal-pandemic/

leaked email (during trading hours)

aww man, a lot of leaking going on

Typical Musk cleverness/running around SEC disclosure regulations. If deliveries number is bad, the bulls will hold onto "but profit!", which takes weeks to come out. It also cuts selling before release. Then if they show -$300 million or something, it will be time for the next thing/long forgotten, with cult inductees like heltok pushing "imminent ramping" of the next donkey-carrot.

I wonder if the new SEC Chairman will take a different tack than Jay Clayton's blanket encouragement of fraud by shutting down his underlings prosecution and forcing a favorable settlement.

Hilariously, a new Tesla test car was spotted with LIDAR on it. They claim it's just for "verification".

What I would say though is that the stock price way higher than even a stark increase in met supply would justify. We are at more than 7× revenue/stock price ratios for a business that has realistic net profit margins around 10% for a solid company.

So, Tesla is trading at roughly 70× their earnings potential with current production and demand.
I have no doubt that this will be reduced given the vast popularity of Tesla cars and the market dominating position they are in. But even then we are looking at a lot of demand catch up that needs to happen.

Maybe I am missing something, but the stock price seems way higher than what can realistically be achieved in the next five years from the stock.
One factor for this is the upcoming recession. While it seems like the world has recovered, I am not sure if this is permanent or a temporary illusion. I think it's the latter, but I have no proof.