Quote:
Originally Posted by Spurious
Is the 80k for real? Which markets? 80k would be very good given the situation.
yeah i agree 80k would be good. yoy decline but the narrative will be "80k in the time of covid is good" (and i agree). i'm seeing estimates anywhere from 70k to 95k. something like:
- 30k China
- 10k Europe
- 35k NA
- 5k other
they are really pushing deliveries of model Ys and there are apparently lots of quality issues -- many reports of people rejecting delivery due to panel gaps and paint issues. just checked the model Y subreddit and someone said they ordered on monday and are taking delivery this friday (!), so either the backlog is gone and/or they are trying to deliver rejected cars to other customers before eoq.
i also think they recognize enough FSD revenue to show profit with the claim that stop light recognition is a huge milestone.
i'm a permabear obv but i think q3 has more cracks than q2 due to model Y quality issues + drained backlog and EU competition and even China competition. they will never reduce guidance lol which means they have to deliver like 140k cars in q3 and 180k in q4. my guess is the earnings call focus is like 70% cybertruck, 20% semi, 10% other (battery day downplayed because it's not a real thing). oh and elon will declare victory over covid.