Battery is already a commodity and Tesla's projections aren't far from industry projections and historical trends.

Ya, that was in response to Sub's comment about ICE companies needing to master battery tech. Thought it was a little ridiculous, since it is dubious how much of the tech belongs to Tesla, how much to Panasonic, and how much of an edge they have over other providers.

NB: I don't really know much about battery technology other than lotta raw materials are getting pricey. (But batteries keep getting cheaper?!? Weird IMO.)

You are omitting something that, while it is not part of the car, is a central part of Tesla's proposition: the supercharger network.

Other manufacturers don't have anything like that yet.

Now Tesla are saying $190 today and $100/kWh by 2020.

Also:
http://cleantechnica.com/2016/04/27/...cing-unveiled/
http://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/06/...battery-packs/

Tesla just has to be characteristically behind schedule by 2 or 3 years and retain market leadership (which amounts to a year or two lead) and it would be consistent with publications' forecasts.

At this point they can be 10 years behind schedule and still beat the forecasts. I would seem that the "experts" were not so great at predicting Teslas claimed costs.

Given Elon's history, I would take anything he claims with a ****ing mountain of salt. He is obviously a sociopath with no qualms about dishonesty.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/15/tesla...esla-bear.html

I see a new headline like this on CNBC much more frequently nowadays. A lot of people lining up behind the Tesla has no edge thesis

Tesla is synonymous with fast EV. And EVs bulk of the cost is the battery, where Tesla has a small edge or at least is on par.

Tesla WANTS competitors. Pure EV market is still a blue ocean industry where Tesla gets to charge a premium alongside traditional luxury brands. Incumbent players entering the industry legitimizes Tesla's products and accelerates infrastructure build out.

This is TS speaking. Are there any tangible things that lead him to believe any of this?

He is talking about the future, all of the things that are supposed to happen in the next x years. The reality is that not a single car company has any competing cars out there. The competition on the autopilot is way worse so I don't know what he's talking about there.

And as grizy pointed out, Tesla currently operates in a tiny market. If that market grows, Tesla will lose market share but will sell more cars in absolute numbers.

Lets take the example of someone living in an apartment building in the penthouse. He really wants a Tesla, but rarely drives, and has no way to charge it (parking garage lacks outlets).

If EV becomes commonplace and we start having metered outlets tied to parking spots, magically he becomes a customer.

There is a clear customer story for infrastructure buildout and increased users. I don't really see how this is even something that warrants discussion. The market is super tiny now because of problems like this, but as time passes and more infrastructure exists (Charging stations now exist at gas stations) it will increase the potential market orders of magnitude.

Imo it is not so tiny.

Tesla has sold what 400k Model 3 reservations with a few hundred test drives, in a few months, one media event and with two year wait time. Sure the market will grow as the infrastructure matures and awareness increases, but it is already decently large already imo.

Even at super charging stations, it takes over an hour to charge a Tesla. That makes the "gas station" (read super charging stations) refueling model impractical for Tesla cars.

You can see this with YouTube videos "proving" that you can drive from CA to Las Vegas by planning trips out. It's too much hassle and a lot of downtime.

Going forward, what will likely happen is charging where parking (or even driving) is, in garages, on parking lots, and even on the streets themselves.

How about their battery swap stuff? Seems like a smart idea

According to things I've read, battery swap technology is basically a pipe dream.

Part of the problem is the tech hurdles (charging speed, battery longevity, weight, and so on), once surmounted, would obsolete the need for battery swapping anyway. As a stop gap measure, the amount of capital investment (to build facilities and hoard batteries), design sacrifices (to make batteries modular), and technical hurdles are simply too high for battery swapping to be a viable answer to charging time.

A little queuing theory:
Let's say you have a swapping station that services 30 customers per hour and it takes an hour to charge a battery to full. We need 35-40 batteries on hand (depending on assumptions) to make sure most of the customers don't end up waiting for than 10 minutes for a battery to become available. At current prices, that's 1 million just on inventory (and that inventory depreciates quickly) to service only 30 customers per hour.

How many times have you supercharged a Tesla?

Imo it is pretty rare that you need to go from 10% to 100%, more often owners go from 30% to 80% or something like that. At 130kW you get those 45kWh from 30% to 80% in like 20min right?

According to my Tesla owning friends who have done SF-LV and back a few times, it is pretty convenient. They stop and pee, stretch their legs, eat some Chipotle and off they go with almost full charge. Very few actually complain about this, the benefit of not having to go to the gas station seems to outweigh this.

maybe it's an hour for full charge, but you can get it to ~85% in app. 30 minutes. If you plan it as a lunch break, you will not run out on a typical day of long travel.

The key is "plan it as" anything. Vast majority of the human population do not want to plan their lives around their cars.

Current owners are a self-selecting bunch.

I'd say that most apartment complexes have an outlet. If they don't (and the much more likely case) you can charge at work and even if that fails the destination charging options become a lot more available. It's Tesla only for now but this changes.

I'm Zurich based so this might be anecdotal but the downtown parking garages all have a few spots reserved for EV owners.

In any case, someone who rarely drives should probably not buy a Tesla. If you live downtown (somewhere in Europe), I personally don't see a reason to own a car.

Your point is valid though. The infrastructure isn't there yet to fully support a large EV market. There is some inconvenience (see grizy) and some problems with the mindset of people.

I think the critical mass infrastructure is basically the point when you don't need to map your trip around charging stations no matter where you are going.

Any day that you are driving less than about 220 miles, the tesla is perfect. you just plug it in at night, unplug it in the morning, and drive it as much as you want. It is actually better than a gas car on those days because you don't ever have to stop at the gas station. You just recharge every night. I would guess that for most people they drive more than 200 miles on <5% of days. So on the other 95% of days a battery powered car requires no sacrifice and is actually more convenient than gas.

Also keep in mind the couple or family that has 2 or more cars. I don't have any statistics but this is certainly a huge number of people. In that case having one electric and one gas car is perfect. You just use the electric car on any day you are driving less than 220 miles, and use the gas car for road trips. you don't have to make any sacrifices.

Regarding road trips with the tesla, you start with about 250 miles of range, which helps a lot for shorter trips. For example, if you are going 350 miles, you only have to add 100 miles sometime during your trip, which should only take about 20-30 minutes on a supercharger. A 350 mile trip will probably be at least 5-6 hours, so a 30 minute stop in 6 hours isn't a big deal.

On the other hand, really long road trips are where the electric car struggles. If you are planning to drive 700 miles in a day, you need to add 450 miles during the day, which is going to be 3-4 stops of 20-50 minutes depending on how things work out. That is a lot of stopping that significantly extends the trip, and a lot of advanced planning.

For me personally, anything over 400 miles I am more likely to fly, so the really long road trip scenario doesn't apply.

The point being that for families/couples with 2 cars or people who don't often drive over 400 miles, you can already drive a tesla without making any significant sacrifices.

Can we talk about the technicals for a second? It's stuck in this $150-$250 range mostly (the swings are big within it) since summer 2013, what is a preferred strategy for how to play it? I hate this name & have lost a lot betting against it. Having said that I really struggle to see the valuation here (or ever) especially with this sham of a deal buying SCTY.

Bears say the fundamentals are crap and the valuation is horrific, the debt levels are way too high. Bulls say this stock is going to change the world, and will be at the centre of a paradigm shift we haven't seen in a while and other companies will not be able to compete with them for sometime.

My opinion is that one should not short this stock in the short term as the bulls are not selling any time soon, their time horizon is much longer. The potential of Tesla is way too high and therefore no one should really short this stock long term either.

SCTY news lead to a 3 billion+ mkt cap loss for the company when SCTY was only worth 2bln. That news was quickly shaken off. It's not going down any time soon and I don't think it's going up until they have a decent quarter relative to expectations or the model 3 is released. (If it doesn't sell or there is a major problem with it then it may tank)

How can you say no one should short ever? You realize how silly that sounds?

I mean right now no one should enter a short with a short, medium or long time horizon. Intraday shorting is a different ball game though (same with intraweek) Just don't expect a large downward move (below $210) any time soon