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Originally Posted by SenorKeeed
Just think it's worthwhile to remind people what sort of certainty you were peddling when you were writing about TSLA's fate only two years ago and how dead wrong you were.
Certainty? I wasn't peddling certainty two years ago. You asked me for a guess, I said:
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Personally I think they'll limp along while the stock price declines and go bankrupt as the M3 demand peaks (since they can't it make it profitably for $35K; the market isn't large enough for a $50K M3), there are recall problems or lawsuits. If neither of those eventuate then Model Y ramp will sink them. Credit and demand will dry up, and competition will be fierce.
Jan 2019: $200 (lower before then, but might get a bounce again late in the year as they do a raise, sort out M3 and pump the Y. 50/50 on the late year bounce imo)
Jan 2020: Bankrupt, but let's say $70 to cover some kind of buyout or SpaceX rescue.
Ultimately, given who holds (mostly institutions plus delusional retail weirdos) and the short percent, it'll need something major like a credit squeeze or obvious failure to make the morons at the institutions dump their holdings.
Do those words sound like certainty to you? The above was pretty great analysis at the time (it was before Q1 demand collapse that nearly sunk the company and made great money if you bet it), and when there were strong signs of demand picking up at $190 I changed my mind on bankruptcy odds and argued black and blue with the shorts to cover (they didn't listen).
Really enjoying the hardon for me man. Thanks for quoting the good analysis I did. Been pretty great on Tesla, not perfect though.
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Originally Posted by SenorKeeed
I think my point is clear: TS was spectacularly wrong about Tesla for many years.
Was I "spectacularly wrong about Tesla for years" one year ago at $190 when it was -40% for 5 years while tech was +150% for five years? I said to cover at that point, been a mix of bullish and bearish since including 10 bags on corona puts if you covered when the market turned.
Tesla has certainly taken longer to fail than I thought it would, Musk turned out to be an epic conman who can push fraud after fraud. He really hit a home with FSD 2020 Robotaxis, that's still playing out. Without China I'd be sure they'd fail, with China it's a bit murkier, who knows what SpaceX secrets Musk has traded or can trade for a second home and special treatment/endless bank credit.
Last edited by ToothSayer; 06-05-2020 at 04:57 PM.