TSLA showing cracks? - Page 491 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

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TSLA showing cracks?

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05-12-2020 , 08:39 AM

#12251

despacito

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 1,369

I assume Musk will win vs the County and be allowed to re-open - anyone disagree?

Quote

05-12-2020 , 09:03 AM

#12252

BooLoo

adept

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 945

who cares? that's one week of production.

stock is up like 100% without building cars for weeks.

Quote

05-12-2020 , 09:06 AM

#12253

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by Morishita System

This is why I have a permanent equity short and sell short term covered puts in exchange for LEAPS and occasionally calls. I can wait as long as it takes and just sit back and watch with popcorn.

And now I have a giant pile of free LEAPS.

I'm kind of in the same boat, minus free leaps

I've always carried a small position one way or the other, because it's entertainment and without a position it just feels weird

Quote

05-12-2020 , 09:09 AM

#12254

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by despacito

I assume Musk will win vs the County and be allowed to re-open - anyone disagree?

i agree either the county/Fremont PD will cave

Quote

05-12-2020 , 09:42 AM

#12255

Xkf

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 30,166

we did it

Quote

05-12-2020 , 09:44 AM

#12256

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

Trump backing Tesla, this definitely wont encourage Musk to do whatever he wants going forward

Quote

05-12-2020 , 10:01 AM

#12257

thethrill009

adept

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 830

Reduced pton

Quote

05-12-2020 , 10:37 AM

#12258

chytry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 4,341

They finally merged.
Musk must now believe that the liberal market is exhausted or his cult beliefs are stronger than those peoples' liberal beliefs.
Let's observe his climate change beliefs and 'green' marketing closely from now on.

Quote

05-12-2020 , 10:43 AM

#12259

AllinPoker

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 379

Im a huge tesla bear but got to admit I love the way Elon played this out in twitter in reopening the company the past week and standing up to some bs local city officials. As much as I think he might be a fraud or think the company is crazy over valued I think he should be allowed to reopen and go down with a fight

Quote

05-12-2020 , 11:06 AM

#12260

fanmail

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 32,698

forcing people to risk their lives to work in a pandemic is the coolest

Quote

05-12-2020 , 11:16 AM

#12261

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Undoing all the sacrifices that others are making (the rest of the county is still in forced shutdown, which is close to pointless now with 10K workers milling in a factory not doing basic safety/distancing procedures) is also the coolest!

Quote

05-12-2020 , 11:16 AM

#12262

Larry Legend

Celtic Pride

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 42,920

Sold the puts from yesterday at open. Not sure why it seemed like a good idea at the time. I'm going back to observing the fire from a safe distance, may look into leaps.

Quote

05-12-2020 , 11:21 AM

#12263

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by Larry Legend

Sold the puts from yesterday at open. Not sure why it seemed like a good idea at the time. I'm going back to observing the fire from a safe distance, may look into leaps.

Why? If you have a three month thesis involving earnings you don't sell on a 6% blip in that time frame. Three things happened:

- Musk reopened early and won vs the county, who backed down
- Analysts did big upgrades
- The market came nicely off lows

None of those are relevant to the August thesis. If anything you should be more inclined to buy here at $850 than you were at $800. Yet you're selling puts now. How does a blip change a three month thesis? I don't get it.

Quote

05-12-2020 , 11:29 AM

#12264

BilldaCat

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 691

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

agreed - I bought too early on the puts (FOMO), but here is a good spot I think to double down. At any rate, I'm not selling.

Quote

05-12-2020 , 11:36 AM

#12265

snowie963

banned

Join Date: Sep 2019 Posts: 1,484

Don't they need to be open as an essential business, since they are manufacturing ventilators?

Quote

05-12-2020 , 11:51 AM

#12266

Larry Legend

Celtic Pride

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 42,920

The blip didnt change anything overall, the tempt to double down is super strong. But I think my timing was poor to start this week. I'd rather continue being on the sidelines and as things become more clear in the overall economy reassess my tsla plays.

Quote

05-12-2020 , 01:17 PM

#12267

Xkf

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 30,166

can anyone explain what Adam Jonas is doing during all this please? he asked the question about end of april liquidity on the earnings call and didn't get an answer. he has apparently since released like 5 notes in the last week that are all bullish and defending elon/tesla in all this.

Quote

05-12-2020 , 01:56 PM

#12268

NLSoldier

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 24,252

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

The China sales make this worth taking Larry Legend's August puts here with Tesla at $797. I'd go for the $500 strike at $22 (as of Friday, maybe $25 now once the market opens in 30 minutes).

It becomes an even nicer bet now, especially with the weekend news of continued forced factory shutdown. Market might even help a little too.

It's not a "no brainer" like my put recommendation at $900 area pre covid was, but it's very nicely +EV, just with a 20-30% chance you won't get paid...no brainers to me are <10% chance you won't get paid.

Bought some of these for $20 today.

Quote

05-12-2020 , 02:02 PM

#12269

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by Larry Legend

Yeah the "no brainer" is getting in when the market is clearly turning down on longer term fears, given that Tesla without major news is mainly tracking the "risk on/off" momentum market with 3-5x beta. It's good enough here that I'm happy to take it, but there might well be better spots yet, and there are definitely lower risk of loss spots (this one is 20-30% risk of meaningful loss).

Quote

05-12-2020 , 06:34 PM

#12270

coordi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 23,699

Bought some 5/15 750p yolos @ 2.25

Here is to hoping. Might hop on this August put train. Every time I trade Tesla I tell myself "never again", but here I am. Pure addict to pain, masochistic.

Someone put $150mm into 12/20 and 1/21 $380 puts today too. Probably part of a hedge, but still a big buy to be aware of.

Quote

05-12-2020 , 06:46 PM

#12271

Xkf

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 30,166

Hahahaha https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-musk-s-battle

Quote

05-12-2020 , 06:57 PM

#12272

MyrnaFTW

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 7,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xkf

Hahahaha https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-musk-s-battle

and gretchen newsome is absolutely tslaq

https://twitter.com/GretchenNewsom

Quote

05-13-2020 , 02:17 AM

#12273

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Alameda County folds after having their reflections by the lake

Quote

05-13-2020 , 04:30 AM

#12274

chytry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 4,341

Quote:

Originally Posted by Larry Legend

The blip didnt change anything overall, the tempt to double down is super strong. But I think my timing was poor to start this week. I'd rather continue being on the sidelines and as things become more clear in the overall economy reassess my tsla plays.

usually way too late then

You can't do options without a lot of risk

Quote:

Originally Posted by Morishita System

Alameda County folds after having their reflections by the lake

^^ If they have a responsible plan, they should be able to manufacture. But they didn't have a responsible plan even before the pandemic.