TSLA showing cracks? - Page 482 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

Two Plus Two Forums Other Topics Business, Finance, and Investing

TSLA showing cracks?

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 482 of 619

First

282 382 432 462 472 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 492 502 532 582

Last

Page 482 of 619

First

282 382 432 462 472 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 492 502 532 582

Last

04-27-2020 , 01:51 PM

#12026

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by djevans

Sold the $1200 call and the $400 put for $9~ credit may 15 contract - wish me luck!

So for $9 you go bankrupt if Tesla releases FSD or experiences a short squeeze, or if Tesla simply returns to where it was merely a month or a year ago.

Fun game. Why not just sell SPY puts instead during this rip?

Quote

04-27-2020 , 03:12 PM

#12027

Xkf

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 30,166

shelter in place order likely to be extended through May

Quote

04-27-2020 , 03:14 PM

#12028

turtletom

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 1,749

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

I actually like the way he has structure the trade. Of course, he goes bankrupt if the shares rip, but so does a straight short. With this he at least collects a credit if the shares go nowhere and he makes mega millions in a very very cheap way if we sell off.

I have no opinion on TSLA but if someone is a bear this has got to be better than the straight short or at least comparable.

Quote

04-27-2020 , 04:27 PM

#12029

solid first post

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 149

Is there a price point where this becomes a clear sell before the earnings?

Quote

04-27-2020 , 04:35 PM

#12030

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Must get $1- $1.5 billion dollars in ~2 months if the share price stays above $400 or so for those two months. He's maxed out on loans and has experienced financial stress from this.

That's an incredible incentive for fraud. I'm not going anywhere near earnings at any price.

Quote

04-27-2020 , 04:38 PM

#12031

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by turtletom

He's selling both a put and a call (a strangle), so I'm not sure where the "mega millions" bit comes from.

Quote

04-27-2020 , 04:55 PM

#12032

djevans

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 5,101

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

The shares have to rip $400+ and if it goes under $400 i'll just own the stock at $400.

You think TSLA can go over $1200 by may 15?

Quote

04-27-2020 , 05:20 PM

#12033

Spurious

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 18,593

Quote:

Originally Posted by djevans

You think TSLA can go over $1200 by may 15?

Ab-so-****ing-lutely...

This stock is not going anywhere (only higher). Earnings season will show "inflated" numbers, because the Covid affected like 1/6 of the quarter. 2nd quarter will be a bloodbath, but everyone already expects this.

I don't expect any sanity in the stock market before mid-Q3 when people realize that demand has plummeted.

Quote

04-27-2020 , 05:21 PM

#12034

solid first post

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 149

Thanks TS.

If I got my calculations right, he might actually get the 6 month 100 billion trailing average within mid-May (or even a week earlier)... That's worth more than $0.5 billion.

Quote:

Market Capitalization Milestone:
• Six calendar month trailing average (based on trading days); and
• 30 calendar day trailing average (based on trading days).

Quote

04-27-2020 , 05:39 PM

#12035

turtletom

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 1,749

Quote:

Originally Posted by turtletom

Lol just realised he sold the put. Thought he owned it.

Quote

04-27-2020 , 06:37 PM

#12036

djevans

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 5,101

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spurious

You should buy calls than because they are cheap. For $700 you can get a $1200 call option. Well now I think $600. It went down a lot already

Quote

04-27-2020 , 06:38 PM

#12037

djevans

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 5,101

Quote:

Originally Posted by turtletom

Lol just realised he sold the put. Thought he owned it.

Correct. I will own it if it goes to $400 or lower

Quote

04-27-2020 , 06:41 PM

#12038

solid first post

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 149

No one said the stock will go to 1200.

Quote

04-27-2020 , 09:54 PM

#12039

djevans

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 5,101

I think the strangle is very low risk - probably a 5% chance I lose money - if it goes below $400 i'll happily buy the stock - I wanted TSLA under $400 and was greedy I didn't buy it the first time. If the stock goes to $1200 - i'll probably hold 100 shares short until $1500 - in which case I lose $30k - but I think the likely hood of that happening in this kind of environment is very low.

Chance of me going BK is not likely unless TSLA stock goes to $10,000 a share lol which i'll obviously close after $1500

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

I do sell SPY puts - i'm playing an earnings play strangle on TSLA which I think I have an edge on

Last edited by djevans; 04-27-2020 at 10:01 PM.

Quote

04-27-2020 , 11:06 PM

#12040

n00b590

adept

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 978

How is Spurious the most sane person here right now?

Last edited by n00b590; 04-27-2020 at 11:28 PM.

Quote

04-27-2020 , 11:15 PM

#12041

MyrnaFTW

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 7,686

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

this is what makes tesla unshortable right now.. He will twist numbers however he wants and he has billions in support from japanese pensions to hold the bid.

Quote

04-28-2020 , 01:07 AM

#12042

MrFeelNothin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 4,457

Quote:

Originally Posted by solid first post

Thanks TS.

If I got my calculations right, he might actually get the 6 month 100 billion trailing average within mid-May (or even a week earlier)... That's worth more than $0.5 billion.

He gets there next week.

Quote

04-28-2020 , 03:37 AM

#12043

:::grimReaper:::

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 3,113

Quote:

Originally Posted by djevans

The shares have to rip $400+ and if it goes under $400 i'll just own the stock at $400.

You think TSLA can go over $1200 by may 15?

Each to their own, but $9 with 3 weeks to go is not enough me excited about this trade. Way too much upside outlier risk if you're not interested in a long term short.

Sounds like you're only interested in buying at $400. If so, why not just sell that put? I'd either sell after a couple of down days to get more premium (if there are no down days, then you weren't getting much premium anyway), or step up to $500, or sell June's $400, or sell a higher May strike and roll into $400 June for a credit if there's a selloff.

Quote

04-28-2020 , 09:17 AM

#12044

despacito

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 1,369

$100B six month average market cap, options secured?

6mth avg @ $96B now, cap $145B

Quote

04-28-2020 , 09:18 AM

#12045

solid first post

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 149

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin

He gets there next week.

So what's the timeframe on Musk's huge personal incentive to prop up the stock price?

He hits the first target in about a week, then gets $350 options (probably not right away), and then it will take some time for him to sell those shares.

Probably he gets cocky and wants to get to the next couple tranches? Or he could aim to sell those new shares at a much higher price than $800?

Quote

04-28-2020 , 12:48 PM

#12046

djevans

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 5,101

Quote:

Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::

Well you can buy my same position now for $6 =). My option trade is already up 35%

Quote

04-28-2020 , 04:22 PM

#12047

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

Musk now underwriting the D&O insurance for the Tesla Board

That is unbelievable

Quote

04-28-2020 , 06:28 PM

#12048

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by syndr0me

Musk now underwriting the D&O insurance for the Tesla Board

That is unbelievable

Musk also apparently borrowed against his shares to buy more TSLA shares. I can now guess who keeps mass buying single shares above the ask in the after hours.

We also learned that SpaceX purchased 700k worth of TSLA parts. Exactly how many cars did SpaceX buy from TSLA?

Quote

04-28-2020 , 06:35 PM

#12049

Didace

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 20,394

Quote:

Originally Posted by syndr0me

Musk now underwriting the D&O insurance for the Tesla Board

Personally?

Quote

04-28-2020 , 07:03 PM

#12050

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by Didace

Personally?

Yes. It's crazy.
How screwed up does your company have to be that you can't even obtain D&O insurance?

On top of which, they apparently pay $13.5m annually to PwC for the audit....

Quote

Page 482 of 619

First

282 382 432 462 472 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 492 502 532 582

Last

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 482 of 619

First

282 382 432 462 472 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 492 502 532 582

Last