What can go wrong short at 550 after deliveries? I'm trying to find risk and can't really see any.

- Stock is no longer even on the Schwab hard to borrow list, shorts made it through 900 > risk of squeeze and covering way down

- Plant is shut down and car sales everywhere (China included) are off a ledge

- Virus effects are far from over, by the time things get back to normal another few makers have solid competitors launched

- Market crash and liquidity drain takes away power from random pumps

- Model Y a nothing

Only risks at this point are the CCP and bear market rallies. It is possible that SPX has a bear market rally rip to 3000 anyway despite 12m unemployed, which would drag TSLA to 700-800. Though I think the likelihood is that SPX has to touch 1900 first before it rips back to 3200 if we're copying 1929-1930.

They could also fraud out a Q1 profit, though in a bear market I don’t know if that would trigger a pop or not.

Profit in Q1 somehow

Better short opportunities

I think there is a significant risk that Tesla will claim force majeure on a majority of their payables, write them down and take the benefit to inventory and COGS

I think there is a sizeable risk of that in earnings

I don't think they can claim force majeure considering they didn't even close their factor until a week ago and hes on the record as calling it a fat nothingburger, but its Tesla so who knows

Still early in the day, but that gap up to 550-600 is looking pretty grim. The delivery numbers were bad. They need 135k deliveries every quarter the rest of the year to hit guidance and this is the quarter that will be fully affected. I'd guess less than 88k for this quarter, but I also guess we need to see how CV plays out a little more to make that call. It felt like the baggies were waving the victory flag when there was like 2 weeks of affected deliveries, if that, on a 110k prediction.

If they show profit in Q1 and Q2, they'd go into SP500.
Amusing months ahead.

it wouldn't make the top 100 most fraudulent things they have done this year and it's April 2nd

Literally the only way is fraud

yeah i was reading about this. so it says profit in most recent quarter + over four consecutive quarters. does that mean the sum of 4 consecutive quarters has to be >0? if so is it possible they meet this requirement in q1 earnings if 2019q2 + 2019q3 + 2019q4 + 2020q1 > 0?

if so then isn't there like a huge incentive for them to make that requirement. they could easily say hey we released an update where our cameras sometimes recognize stop signs and red lights, that's 50% of FSD, so we get that FSD money. or like every car upgraded to hw3 counts as FSD.

profit in q2 and aggregate profit for the last 4

but that's 5 quarters if including 2019 q2

I meant q2 2020 because I can't image q1 2020 being large enough to offset q2 2019.

stealing from reddit uber bull:

Q2: Jun 30, 2019: -$408.33m
Q3: Sep 30, 2019: +$143.00m
Q4: Dec 31, 2019: +$105.00m
Q1: Apr 22, 2020: ? if Q1 > $160.33m then 4-quarter sum is positive

With Fremont in lockdown until May 3rd (possibly longer if Newsom is going to end the school year) and demand for autos completely collapsing, a Q2 profit would be so fraudy that I think even the fraud enablers would have to call Elon out on that one.

I was hoping to short much higher, but I guess even longs think it's time to leave.

Also, I think Q1 profit would be rather hard to fraud given that deliveries are only at 88k and mostly for the lower end M3s. Lets see what magic Elon and Zac can bring.

Model Y production/deliveries - any info or estimates?

The K-12 public school year is guaranteed over in CA. 100% stone cold lock.

Our district has already announced it.

I am sure Newson and the other elites have workarounds already in place so their kids get some kind of formal, structured education. But for us plebes we are stuck at home watching our own kids till September at least.

What timeframe/strike place would probably be the highest guarantee of turning a put profit?

Just looking for informed suggestions. I hold no one responsible for any money I may lose following a recommendation.

All I know is that they delivered bugger all and are opening up deliveries for all the lower end versions 6+ months earlier than anyone expected (you obviously sell high end first if there's demand for it, like they did with all the other models). Demand is terrible for Model Y. We knew that when they only had 10K preorders, but this is on the other side.

They earned 105m on 97k deliveries so 160m+ profit on 88k with more cheaper models sold would be ridiculous but Elon.

Those are weak paycuts for top executives. Disrespectful of the workers.

Ya, a friend of mine who works as a director at a household name public Co said his company announced 50% paycuts for top execs and 25% paycuts for the board

So the hyper rich people making likely well into the 6 figures of company money to work all of 1 day a quarter, mostly as a formality, are taking a whopping 25% paycut? Better to just not mention it.


Im guessing Tesla board doesn't take any cut