TSLA showing cracks? - Page 476 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

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TSLA showing cracks?

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03-31-2020 , 05:28 PM

#11876

bbfg

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 12,264

That stupid tweet got him two spots on the frontpage of Reddit. Unbelievable. It's not even relevant.

Quote

03-31-2020 , 11:49 PM

#11877

n00b590

adept

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 978

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pun Intended

This has to be a short from here going into actual deliveries, right?

Or better off to wait thru it and get in before next quarter's shitshow?

It’s been an obvious short for the past 5 years, but it’s impossible to time. It’s been defying gravity for so long, nobody knows when reality will set in. They’ve already guided down on Q1 deliveries, so I don’t expect a big move there unless they print <80k. Q1 financials will likely be awful, but Q2 will be the real bloodbath.

Quote

04-01-2020 , 10:53 AM

#11878

snowie963

banned

Join Date: Sep 2019 Posts: 1,484

Elon is on to the fact that hospitals are lying about how many ventilators they need, must send footage of people suffocating from now on to receive ventilators.

Quote

04-01-2020 , 11:58 AM

#11879

grizy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 20,780

This is my thought process on shorting TSLA into deliveries numbers:

Valuation is built more on a dream of world domination SOMEWHERE down the line. Delivery numbers only matter if they show that dream is impossible.

Given Covid-19 crisis, no matter how bad the numbers are, he could just say "Covid-19."

Therefore, bad delivery numbers won't sink TSLA and no short on that basis, at least not on that basis alone.

Quote

04-01-2020 , 12:35 PM

#11880

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

Musk sends CPAPs and calls them ventilators, and somehow isnt called out on it by the media, and is instead praised.

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04-02-2020 , 03:55 AM

#11881

coordi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 23,699

Quote

04-02-2020 , 12:01 PM

#11882

rickroll

Questionable Taste

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 26,044

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shuffle

O/U months (or days?) until Tesla hires Jian Liu?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/luck...ted-sales.html

bahaha, surprisingly the luckin coffee news isn't really big news here... yet

Quote

04-02-2020 , 12:14 PM

#11883

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by syndr0me

Musk sends CPAPs and calls them ventilators, and somehow isnt called out on it by the media, and is instead praised.

That Tesla ventilator story is the funniest thing ever. Under fire for keeping your factory open, ship off 1200 sleep apnea breathing masks (abundant, not in shortage, not ventilators), call them ventilators, slap a half-ass printed Tesla logo on it for the optics, receive press and cult adulation. Then when you're found out, the press doesn't report it and your cult think it's yet another example of shorts attacking you for selfish altruism.

If Musk could run a company that sells cons rather than cars I'd be long to the eyeballs. Trillion dollar company.

Quote

04-02-2020 , 12:25 PM

#11884

rickroll

Questionable Taste

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 26,044

Quote:

Originally Posted by rickroll

bahaha, surprisingly the luckin coffee news isn't really big news here... yet

i was very wrong about that, just wasn't looking at right section - it's massive news right now

Quote

04-02-2020 , 01:02 PM

#11885

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

First fraud of many to be exposed. Most frauds do just fine until economic conditions change, especially with access to easy money.

Quote

04-02-2020 , 02:52 PM

#11886

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

First fraud of many to be exposed. Most frauds do just fine until economic conditions change, especially with access to easy money.

Yep, it's one of the beauties of Accounting, eventually everything has to come off the balance sheet, it's easier to hide when you have lots of things running through it, when that slows down, it becomes far less easy

Quote

04-02-2020 , 02:54 PM

#11887

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

it's amazing to watch, when outed the cult then attacks anyone reporting it and instantly becomes experts in how easy a CPAP machine can become a ventilator

Quote

04-02-2020 , 03:02 PM

#11888

Xkf

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 30,166

hi, how likely is it that they announce deliveries which are bad and then reaffirm their 500k+ 2020 guidance even though it's obviously not right?

Quote

04-02-2020 , 03:07 PM

#11889

syndr0me

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xkf

hi, how likely is it that they announce deliveries which are bad and then reaffirm their 500k+ 2020 guidance even though it's obviously not right?

it will be something more along the lines of "COVID-19 will delay deliveries in Q2, however we have a backlog large enough that once production levels are back to expectation, we expect to be at a higher than 500k annual rate of deliveries as early as Q3"

the words "More/higher than 500k" will be in the release, somehow someway, they will be there

Quote

04-02-2020 , 03:20 PM

#11890

MrFeelNothin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 4,457

Quote:

Originally Posted by dicky

After starting this thread ~7 years ago.....I'm back baby!

Every so often I checked in to this thread, but generally had checked out of the name as I didn't have skin in the game.

Now seems to be an interesting time to look at puts dated ~6 months out, Aug 2020 to Nov 2020.

That gives enough time for several more opportunities of general market wide sell off -
1) **** to really hit the fan here in the US (people are scared, but face to face impact of healthcare being overrun hasn't happened yet. People realize its a big deal, but vast majority of people are still seeing it on the TV instead of in their daily lives/people they know. NYC is beginning to see it for real.
2) Once that passes, companies will then begin revealing the extent of the Q1/Q2 economic impact on their earnings. Stocks are down, bailout is out, but reality hasn't set in I don't think. We have several more big drops to go IMO.
3) People begin to see that luxury items like Tesla's which are "affordable" to wealthy individuals ($1 to $5 million net worth) are not as affordable anymore, or that those buyers are more reluctant to shell out for large luxury purchases (I myself fall into this category! Couldn't imagine buying a Tesla at this moment).
4) S&P500 is at ~2500, a level seen in 2017, down 25% from its high, and 15% from its 1 year trailing average. TSLA is at 550, down obviously from a recent high of 900, but more importantly, still above its 1 year average. Does anyone really think they are MORE confident in TSLA (or any other business) now than they were 3 months ago? TSLA is one of the few large cap stocks trading above where it did 3 months ago. As a luxury item, it seems vulnerable to large scale economic disruption.

Load up on those puts IMO.....

From the ashes a fire shall be woken,
A light from the shadows shall spring;
Renewed shall be blade that was broken,
The crownless again shall be king.

It is the return of dicky.

2020 is the year fellas. The cracks are showing.

Quote

04-02-2020 , 03:41 PM

#11891

Steve350

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,047

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

That Tesla ventilator story is the funniest thing ever. Under fire for keeping your factory open, ship off 1200 sleep apnea breathing masks (abundant, not in shortage, not ventilators), call them ventilators, slap a half-ass printed Tesla logo on it for the optics, receive press and cult adulation. Then when you're found out, the press doesn't report it and your cult think it's yet another example of shorts attacking you for selfish altruism.

If Musk could run a company that sells cons rather than cars I'd be long to the eyeballs. Trillion dollar company.

I thought you were paying attention the last several years.

Quote

04-02-2020 , 04:09 PM

#11892

coordi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 23,699

88k deliveries ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Quote

04-02-2020 , 04:10 PM

#11893

Xkf

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 30,166

boooom 88k deliveries

edit: i have 4 $600 calls expiring tomorrow. $$$ or no? the rest of my position eats ****

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04-02-2020 , 04:17 PM

#11894

coordi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 23,699

I don't think 500$ is $$$

Quote

04-02-2020 , 04:20 PM

#11895

Xkf

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 30,166

yeah maybe i can get a couple quarters

no guidance i already feel like im gonna buy more puts tomorrow

Quote

04-02-2020 , 05:54 PM

#11896

Xkf

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 30,166

530 ah

Quote

04-02-2020 , 05:58 PM

#11897

coordi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 23,699

That's what happens when people FOMO buy the ask on no volume

Quote

04-02-2020 , 06:05 PM

#11898

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Was waiting for this; I shorted a lot of weekly puts that will all net me money. Now I fire both barrels into the gap up to 550-600 tomorrow.

Quote

04-02-2020 , 06:21 PM

#11899

Xkf

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 30,166

Straight short or puts? If puts for q1 earnings or q2 or some other?

Quote

04-02-2020 , 07:47 PM

#11900

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

Mass straight short and LEAPS subsidized by shorting OTM weekly puts.

Quote

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