One problem with the short thesis is that Elon may now be an agent of the Chinese government.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news...iXQ?li=BBnb4R5

China does not have ventilators to spare due to the worldwide demand for them, unlike what Elon claims. Yet Elon is able to procure 1000 of them instantly. He may be compromised by the Chinese.

If that's the case, Tesla will not be allowed to fail, just like BABA.

As far fetched as this seems, I'll bite.

What if he gets exposed as a Chinese Agent?

This is literally how I've been summarizing the bear case in recent history. Mouthbreathers love the cars and will pay any price for the stock because they understand less than nothing about financials. Admittedly it's also a good reason to be long at certain times.

The bull case is obviously that Elon is an invincible con man who can do no wrong with legions of morons eating up every one of his lies.

He won't. Too many politicians and big names would go down in flames if he got exposed. Therein lies the problem.

Although yes it is somewhat unlikely, I think we will know if it's true or not based on the Chinese delivery numbers. I'm skeptical, but keeping an open mind because some of the evidence of this *might* have some credibility, and it would be Elonesque to sell out to China to save himself.

The most interesting thing in the article you linked was GM’s aim to manufacture 200,000 ventilators. That speaks to the magnitude of the problem but also America’s fearless and industrious spirit.

What do you mean ”agent of the Chinese government“?

fearless and industrious spirit, eh?

https://www.scmp.com/business/compan...tors-milan-new

up 9% premarket lol

didn't notice my fill, short at 544

also the CCP took credit for the ventilators send to Italy, but let Musk take credit for these, seems almost a guarantee he is compromised in some way

When are delivery numbers released?

should be in the first few days of april

After starting this thread ~7 years ago.....I'm back baby!

Every so often I checked in to this thread, but generally had checked out of the name as I didn't have skin in the game.

Now seems to be an interesting time to look at puts dated ~6 months out, Aug 2020 to Nov 2020.

That gives enough time for several more opportunities of general market wide sell off -
1) **** to really hit the fan here in the US (people are scared, but face to face impact of healthcare being overrun hasn't happened yet. People realize its a big deal, but vast majority of people are still seeing it on the TV instead of in their daily lives/people they know. NYC is beginning to see it for real.
2) Once that passes, companies will then begin revealing the extent of the Q1/Q2 economic impact on their earnings. Stocks are down, bailout is out, but reality hasn't set in I don't think. We have several more big drops to go IMO.
3) People begin to see that luxury items like Tesla's which are "affordable" to wealthy individuals ($1 to $5 million net worth) are not as affordable anymore, or that those buyers are more reluctant to shell out for large luxury purchases (I myself fall into this category! Couldn't imagine buying a Tesla at this moment).
4) S&P500 is at ~2500, a level seen in 2017, down 25% from its high, and 15% from its 1 year trailing average. TSLA is at 550, down obviously from a recent high of 900, but more importantly, still above its 1 year average. Does anyone really think they are MORE confident in TSLA (or any other business) now than they were 3 months ago? TSLA is one of the few large cap stocks trading above where it did 3 months ago. As a luxury item, it seems vulnerable to large scale economic disruption.

Load up on those puts IMO.....

Cashed out a bunch but I think I will keep some of my long term puts and see what happens. I agree with the sentiment that chaos could be coming. It might not, but there is a chance.

Buy Tesla Stock, Wall Street Says. A Comeback Will Happen Eventually.


You know they are about to sell when they are telling you to buy lmao

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecmwWZmaU0A

stonks only go up and they are nice cars, eh

Is this the 3rd or 4th year in a row that Elon has promised to deliver 500k cars? I know for sure it's at least the 3rd. Anyway, that's obviously not looking likely right now. I wonder if it will happen in 2021!

Tesla starts the day off down 2%:
"Not seeing any news to justify price movement"

Day with nothing but bad news and downgrades:
Tesla rips 6%

yup sounds about right

for ppl who don't read about this bs all day every day: delivery estimates lowered to the 80-85k range this morning, actual delivery numbers expected thurs or friday. deliveries lower than q2 2019, stonk up 6%

Their eu-evs registration is literally the lowest it's been since they started tracking.

This has to be a short from here going into actual deliveries, right?

Or better off to wait thru it and get in before next quarter's shitshow?

Robo ventilators secured.

If the vents are needed immediately, by the time they get there the patients will be dead

Uh, why does Tesla have extra ventilators? Is this a joke I don't get?

China connection.

It kind of is a joke though, because musk was basically a covid denier until he found a way to benefit from it