So give me a number that you would consider "deadful" for production and delivery separate. Doesn't need to be an expectation, just where we can draw a line so that when results come in the goal post doesn't shift.

TS still waiting for those 2 numbers. You're not gonna claim a "dreadful" quarter afterwards without setting a benchmark first.

Any quarter where they aren't profitable or experiencing exponential growth should be considered dreadful, considering the promises made by musk

Nice try, still gonna need those numbers.

You are making a lot of demands for someone who gives nothing

"lot of demands" means I ask for what TS considers dreadful delivery and production numbers? I know how this goes; he claims something but doesn't quantify it, then after the fact you allow him to come up with anything that remotely fits the narrative. Not this time.

Plus I'm curious if he has any insight in the working of the company at all.

He won't be making any more demands for the next 24 hours.

As for numbers: We know that China is awful (-49% January despite supposedly building 1000/week in December an no corona lockdown yet? hmmm). Dead February. Maybe they'll deliver some this month. Asia buying is depressed with corona.

Europe is seriously in the toilet. This is Norway + Netherlands (their two biggest European markets by far) + Spain. Compare with last quarter.



Registrations are way down across Europe, not just these countries. So we're down ~25K roughly across those markets, with Europe entering lockdown soon. Down at least 15K then from Q4 in those markets.

That leaves North America. Seasonally weak, their biggest market (California) close to saturated, people waiting for Model Y (instead of 3) and the credit expired at the end of last year. Does that make it probable they had below or above average sales there?

Put it all together and you're in for an ugly quarter. The exact numbers? I have no idea, production is opaque and so are some key markets. I didn't have exact numbers in Q1 last year either, but the demand death was very likely then too.

Why do you think Musk is building Model Ys by hand at a large loss in order to deliver some before end of quarter? Because he desperately needs the narrative of the imminent ramp of something new to keep the donkey-carrot going and mask the likely hit his business is taking.

Do let us know when you sell, Kelvis.

Oh and in China they also have a huge scandal where they shipped an old "FSD" chip - one that was 20x slower or something - without telling customers, then when caught blamed the coronavirus-caused supply chain problems. Then it was widely reported that the cars were made before corona, therefore getting caught in a second lie all over social/Chinese media. The Chinese government reprimanded them and told them not to sell defective products.

So until that's rectified probably a continued sales hit. Who wants the defective version? Especially since a lot of the people buying this were taken in by Musk's vaporware FSD fraud. Hilariously, the chip doesn't' matter at all since Tesla won't have FSD, but the people buying don't realize that.

TSLA is now the most valuable Industrial company in the US. Who woulda thunk it a year ago?

Well, to put it in perspective, TLRY (some guy's backyard, <$0.1 billion annual sales, $50 million/year loss) was worth $30 billion, as much as Ford ($150 billion in capital and sales, $4 billion/year profit).

Musk did a great job of making Tesla a focal bubble stock with pure lies about self driving (a year ago he claimed it would be feature complete 3 months ago, now revised as "feature complete" in a few months which apparently means any non-zero chance of driving from home to work without intervention, to quote Musk) and 1 million robotaxis.

Musk the conman has captured a million people like Kelvis, true believers who love him, getting them to put their money in and hold, thinking the shorts are evil (another genius conman play that Musk did), evangelizing to others. It's a great con and I give him credit for it. There are very few like despacito who had the sense to get out at highs. Most will run up and lose it all back and go red again.

Welcome to low interest rates distorting the market, and fraud aided and abetted by the SEC. Same thing happened in 2000.

fwiw, i think Q2 is where the real pain hits

Institution(s) liquidating Tesla today. Haven't seen this signal in the stock for a long time. Rode it down for baggers which was nice (signal was crystal clear). If you're long, gl.

Loving this move, I am unreasonably heavy on puts but there has to be more, right?

They haven't adjusted delivery estimates for the yr, announced plant shutdowns, etc.

Credit where it is due, I already had a Jan 2021 position, but followed this June advice for what is currently a 10+ bagger

will it break $500? i'm sitting on a fatty 4/17 600p that i'm debating selling today

rumors of coronavirus in a fremont factory worker but unconfirmed.

also last i checked on twitter california deliveries were actually bizarrely good jan and feb, with decent s/x mix. also news reporting apple etc. re-opening everything in china. q1 deliveries might not be totally in the toilet? something like 90-95k would probably not be a disaster and could be explained away with "we're deliverying model Ys!!!"

while posting it bounced back to 520

Are puts even worth holding at this point as opposed to a directional short?

I'll start trimming once my puts hit 6 figures

WORKERS AT FIAT CHRYSLER ASSEMBLY PLANT REFUSE WORK AMID CORONAVIRUS EXPOSURE CONCERNS - CBC

worth loading up on crash puts in case this happens to fremont?

Still holding these? I bought Jun $400s which have obviously crushed so far. Thanks.

Thinking about buying some more longer term further out of the money.

Yeah I still have the long term ones (June+)

I can’t think of any reason to sell long dates puts right now, but I’m not great at this, I don’t see any green energy welfare coming out anytime soon

GL guys make that dough on the crash, i wouldnt touch tsla unless its back at 350