TSLA showing cracks? - Page 465 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

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TSLA showing cracks?

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03-03-2020 , 12:30 PM

#11601

grizy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 20,781

Lol. Good lord these contracts are overpriced (huge implied volatility basically). I probably just go up the ladder... with prices I see now I think 2x 1360 call at $49.98 works. Maybe just 1x1010 call.

Quote

03-03-2020 , 12:34 PM

#11602

Pinkmann

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,496

Quote:

Originally Posted by somigosaden

$400 Jan 2021s at 28.50

Just be mindful of the time you will pay, it adds up to quite a bit.

I'm planning on shorting the stock for Q1 results and not even bothering with puts, the IV is always massive but we'll see.

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03-03-2020 , 02:51 PM

#11603

solid first post

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 149

What a day so far!
I don't know much about technical analysis (or even believe in it), but isn't this a triple top pattern over the last month?

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03-03-2020 , 06:32 PM

#11604

somigosaden

adept

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,086

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinkmann

Just be mindful of the time you will pay, it adds up to quite a bit.

I never trade options and I don't understand what you're cautioning me against. Do you just mean that as the months go by and the strike remains well below the stock price, the price of the option I bought is going to get lower and lower because there's less time for the stock to collapse? Sorry for the ignorant question.

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03-03-2020 , 06:37 PM

#11605

despacito

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 1,369

Waymo raising $2.25B in first external round...

Saw news Tesla has approval to build a large (1.2GW) battery storage project in California, have not looked at detail.

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03-03-2020 , 06:42 PM

#11606

Pinkmann

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,496

Time to maturity is a variable in the pricing model. The more time the option has, the more its worth. A 300put on TSLA expiring tomorrow is clearly worthless, while clearly not worthless for the same 300put expiring in 2 years.

Each day that passes you lose a small chunk of value from your position due to time decay.

Last edited by Pinkmann; 03-03-2020 at 06:48 PM.

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03-04-2020 , 08:04 AM

#11607

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

GW != GWh

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03-05-2020 , 02:24 PM

#11608

Didace

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 20,392

Tesla delivered cars to customers in China with lower-performance Autopilot hardware than promised

lol at "blaming disruptions in their supply chain for the decision to use lower-performance hardware"

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03-05-2020 , 03:56 PM

#11609

grizy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 20,781

It's all a ploy to build up cognitive dissonance.

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03-07-2020 , 10:44 PM

#11610

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,723

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/busin...nge/index.html

Lost in all the news lately, interesting if true

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03-08-2020 , 12:19 AM

#11611

snowie963

banned

Join Date: Sep 2019 Posts: 1,484

Buy GM? I love my GM truck and would love to see some big competition for Tesla.

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03-08-2020 , 07:53 AM

#11612

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onlydo2days

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/busin...nge/index.html

Lost in all the news lately, interesting if true

That's on a 200 kWh pack when the Model S is reaching 400 miles on just 100 kWh. It's interesting how bad it is though.

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03-08-2020 , 08:07 PM

#11613

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Given that they're super low on global sales and they ramp at end of quarter (and there will be few deliveries this March anywhere with this **** going down), this should be an awful quarter.

This reminds me of Q1 2019 when Tesla was holding around $300 before (completely expected but the ******s didn't see coming) bad delivery numbers came out in April and the stock tanked. Except many times worse. And Tesla was at $680 Friday (who knows where it is at open today with the futures -5%).

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03-08-2020 , 08:21 PM

#11614

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

Would love to know your production and delivery estimates. Give it your best shot.

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03-08-2020 , 11:00 PM

#11615

Morishita System

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,391

I think we are about to enter a wonderful situation in which nothing Elon says or does is going to matter anymore.

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03-08-2020 , 11:13 PM

#11616

coordi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 23,755

My body is ****ing ready

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03-09-2020 , 11:47 PM

#11617

+EVillain

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 569

Quote:

Originally Posted by coordi

My body is ****ing ready

lol

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03-10-2020 , 01:46 AM

#11618

despacito

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 1,369

Never thought I would say this but might short $TSLA. Undecided.

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03-10-2020 , 07:23 AM

#11619

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Still laughing my ass off that you smoked us all for return (bulls and bears, except the smarter option traders) by selling at $920. Bravo.

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03-10-2020 , 09:48 AM

#11620

Love Sosa

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 2,308

Quote:

Originally Posted by despacito

Never thought I would say this but might short $TSLA. Undecided.

wtf...the bulls are turning on musk?

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03-10-2020 , 11:41 AM

#11621

despacito

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 1,369

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Still laughing my ass off that you smoked us all for return (bulls and bears, except the smarter option traders) by selling at $920. Bravo.

Thanks, I'll take it.

Updated my profile to $920 funding secured (found that hilarious).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Love Sosa

wtf...the bulls are turning on musk?

I think so. Musk's reputation is double counted in $TSLA price. Virus tweets + recent public image not helping imo.

Valuation still speculative at $600, which can be OK, but in this market I don't like it.

Expect poor demand short-term.

Still a fan of star fleet and expect to long $TSLA again, but will at least sit out for now.

EDIT, he may focus more on Spacex too:
Musk’s Top Concern Now Is SpaceX Getting to Mars Before He Dies
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-...220033394.html

Quote:

“If we don’t improve our pace of progress, I’m definitely going to be dead before we go to Mars,” Musk said Monday at the Satellite 2020 conference in Washington. “If it’s taken us 18 years just to get ready to do the first people to orbit, we’ve got to improve our rate of innovation or, based on past trends, I am definitely going to be dead before Mars.”

Last edited by despacito; 03-10-2020 at 11:56 AM.

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03-10-2020 , 11:57 AM

#11622

adanthar

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 20,109

Quote:

Originally Posted by somigosaden

I have my eye on $400 Jan 2021s at 28.50 right now. It's as much a play on the broad market not pricing in Corona fallout as it is against TSLA's kevlar bubble bursting. I remember TS saying Q1 is going to be dreadful, so there's some catalyst, but I also think it's too easy for TSLA bulls to brush off an awful Q1 by saying it was because of Corona and therefore isn't a big deal.

Does anyone think there's more value in shorter-dated puts, or a higher/lower strike?

I entered these at 19.20 on Feb 14th as my first equities play since ~2007. Sold pre unscheduled Fed cut at 40.40, rebought 390s at 29.50 a couple of days later. Now hodling intending to trade in and out around Biden winning states and the Fed cutting more, but ultimately hodling to ITM or close.

TS and I probably disagree on 99% of everything but this was an amazing thread that convinced me to keep a permanent eye on TSLA. The top was so clear that I couldn't resist at $900. I'd advise everyone still bullish on either TSLA or Musk to not bet more than they can afford to lose.

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03-10-2020 , 12:02 PM

#11623

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

TS says Q1 is going to be dreadful but I haven't seen him give his Q1 production and delivery estimate yet. It's probably because he doesn't have them.

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03-10-2020 , 12:08 PM

#11624

despacito

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 1,369

Quote:

Originally Posted by adanthar

Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Now with 100% more seaside views
Posts: 20,111

O.G.

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03-10-2020 , 01:18 PM

#11625

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kelvis

TS says Q1 is going to be dreadful but I haven't seen him give his Q1 production and delivery estimate yet. It's probably because he doesn't have them.

Definitely because I don't have them, haven't done the analysis, nor is it easy to given that North America is dark these days. It's going to be down a shitload though with every available data point showing awful sales and their end of quarter ramp running facefirst into corona panic/shutdowns/lost sales.

It's quite simple to see the trend: take Q4 and take away China (already down 50% in January before corona, why?), most of Korea, Hong Kong, Europe in the absolute toilet (5000 sales so far across the continent) and corona ramping there.

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