I came to read this thread of late, lots of bitter individuals that they were wrong about TSLA. Looking to blame anyone except their own valuation abilities.

Can you teach us a valuation method for a company that has a negative return on equity? I'm not trolling you, I really want to learn how you would even begin to value it.

This is not correct. The castles build themselves in the sky. They are robo-castles, if you will.**

** feature complete in 2020

I am a long-term bull, but I'm out. Maybe I miss out on the run to 5k, or maybe I get back in lower and freeroll.

I assume you're talking about the longs? I don't see any bitter shorts (lots of bitter longs even after getting lucky). The only people calling to go long at lows (<$200) were the long term short biased.

Tesla valuation is properly around $100 including all upside priced in.

That has nothing to do with a stock bubble built around a massive deliberate fraud (FSD ready by 2 months ago, 1 million robotaxis on the road by the end of this year bringing in $30K/year each) building a moonshot narrative. That was a conman's master work, as genius as "Long Island Iced Tea Blockchain Company" and the ICO fraud whitepapers.

But that's not even related to valuation. Congrats on your bubble, but the stock price now has no more to do with Tesla's "valuation" than TLRY's did when it was $30 billion and in a speculation bubble (now $1.5 billion for -95%), or altcoins when they were in a $300 billion bubble (now -90%).

Nice work. Should "freeroll" some May and January puts for a bit of your winnings, kill both sides.

Q1 should be terrible and deflate the bubble quite a bit. $5K isn't possible without full ****** 2000 type bubble, when you could register a .com and be a billion dollar company overnight with no business and no offices.

Might be a smart move but I generally don't short stocks (would do if both overpriced and morally repugnant/evil).

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~~~~~~~~electric ponzi waves~~~~~~~~
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Well, here's the money shot:

~$300 million went to banks. Jonas, Piper and few other analysts danced beautifully with well-timed analyst notes hitting just the right tone for gap ups each day. Combined with a few 10s of millions in well timed premarket buys to gap it 7%, they did a great job.

Do they keep pumping now that it's all done and the underwriting banks are paid and sold out?

I follow some of the Tesla shareholder forums on the internets and it seems like a very large percentage of the types that post about Tesla on the internet hold 50-100% of their portfolio in Tesla, some effectively even more via options.

It's truly amazing how many bitter longs there are on this stock, taking shots at anyone who dares to point out plainly obvious things like that the valuation may not be justified based on fundamentals, that FSD isn't happening anytime soon, or that the SolarCity buyout was a fraud. Never seen anything like it in any other stock. Elon is one of a kind.

Its obviously a crowd who wouldn't own any investments at all if it weren't for tesla.

I have a friend who is a musk disciple, and is one of these people, owning the stock and hardly anything else. He thinks the stock will be worth 1trillion+ eventually and doesn't care about the swings inbetween.

I still dont understand this valuation logic. Its like they think a self driving taxi ride will go for 10-20x the cost of a human driven one.

FYP

They're still posting on various shitcoin forums asking if people think it's likely their coin, after being completely abandoned by developers at an early stage, will modestly ever reach half of its all time high (a 100x return from current valuations). And their sophistication level is exactly the same as Tesla "investors".

It shows something of you as a person when you have to say the opposite viewpoint is "unsophisticated" when you're in the camp that is taking all the losses. Your arguments should do all the talking, not insulting people. It's really low class.

If you want to have a proper discussion, we can have it, but you need to behave less like a cave person to do so.

The difference is the Fed is far more powerful as a money printer, even in relative terms, than the tether machine ever was

Calling people unsophisticated is a lowball. It's a dick move. You can warn people if you feel obligated but point out the reason why you think you're right and let people make their own decision. Right now you're just saying people are dumb because they disagree with you, that's not proper behavior. Again, in order to have a proper discussion it is important to stay polite.

Ok, I thought you were extrapolating to Tesla investors. If I misunderstood I'm sorry.

If you take a half hour to browse any of the multitudes of Tesla investor forums, it becomes apparent very quickly that the vast majority of Tesla investors are very unsophisticated. That's also true for the short side.

That doesn't mean they're all unsophisticated. There's plenty of smart traders who have made a ton of money off the backs of these unsophisticated investors.

"Sophisticated investor" has a technical meaning (specific minimum financial thresholds, knowledge, experience). Not sure if that was the intended reference point but if so calling someone an unsophisticated investor is a factual statement, not an insult. Seems quite uncontroversial to me to say a large % of TSLA investors are unsophisticated, according to that definition.

If so then you can call the majority of the population an unsophisticated investor. Explicitly saying someone buying a specific stock is unsophisticated would be meant as an insult since a certain unsophistication is expected and does not need to be expressed.

un·so·phis·ti·cat·ed
/ˌənsəˈfistəˌkādəd/

lacking refined worldly knowledge or tastes.

not complicated or highly developed; basic.

It's not an insult to anyone in particular; it's a correct generalized assessment of the investor base and a large part of the explanation for the bubble dynamics we're seeing in the stock.

"But have you driven one" is not only a meme, it's an accurate description of the level of analysis a large part of the investor base puts into this stock.

Have you compared it to your regular investor though? Most retail investors don't even know what a market cap is.

Most retail investors aren't putting 100% into one stock and buying call options and posting about it on the internet to get everyone else they know into the FOMO

how do you guys think it's going to perform the rest of the week/next?

i keep reading and hearing about people getting killed short, after watching the behavior of this thing the past few days i dont even feel excited at the prospect of running a short pos anymore. Even if I did have a better grasp of what was happening to the stock i wouldnt feel comfortable with the timing. wish i was long on this fkn thing