This bubble also followed all BTC top offs:

1st exponent - slower building base rise, corrects below the trend

2nd exponent - very fast rise, corrects on the trend

3rd exponent - almost vertical, corrects above the trend or not at all


If this had potential for 4k whatever then I could see it going vertical, correcting, and then pumping again. Once it goes vertical close to what a 'max' should be it seems like there is nothing left to do. For BTC, a 30% correction from the no-more-buyers-top usually signals a fall that cannot be fully recovered, the damage is done.

According to teslaforums there is no news to justify a price fall today and this must be a coordinated attack. I wonder how many of them sell and keep it a dirty secret.

serious question, im not advanced at this stuff, but who is buying? This is a massive amount of shares trading hands

This ran up like a penny stock on $40 billion in daily volume yesterday, the volume topped out, and the selling started. Pretty standard. A 30% fall here on no news over the next week back to the $500s would actually be standard for the penny stock cycle Tesla just went through. Two bad news items today:

- Tesla announce delaying deliveries in China due to virus. Most people buying at high would probably not realize that was certain
- Big bull analyst downgrade to hold, tells people to find a better spot after this runup.

Anyone specific?

The Saudi sale is quite enigmatic.

Not surprising (ppl itt predicted it a week+ ago). Of course Musk knew shutdown was likely/certain when he tweeted virus is relatively innocuous. Seems quite misleading of him to do that.

The market going full bore on $TSLA in spite of the China situation is bizarre.
Maybe Shuffle was right: fed > virus.

Yeah this feels cruel, and I knew this was very likely to happen when I got my personal set margin call yesterday. I'll have to suck it up, I simply reached my beyond absolute max pain level where I had to adhere to the defined stop loss. I don't know what would've happened otherwise, maybe I would've panic covered at $950 instead and make it even worse or maybe I would feel like the happiest and luckiest dude alive just for today. Prior to this month I never could've fathomed that Tesla would become a bitcoin like stock, thus outsizing myself too much in the position thinking it was a lifetime short already at that stage.

I was wrong for 500 points and it seems the peak occurred at 570 points roughly. I hope you guys are making bank on this move.

rough, still down a lot, but picking up a decent amount on today, not overextending and keeping a relatively tight stop on it, sadly relatively tight means like 3% above market

what a time to be alive

Don't beat yourself up for this; your attitude is correct/sound (adhering to stop losses/personal pain). For what its worth, no one in this thread afaict predicted these kinds of crypto swings. In a parallel world this thing is ~1200 today.

Pizza - focus on EV and improving your thought process, not outcomes. Also only trade $ amounts you can be emotionally detached from on any runout. Like Kazuya says there is a wide range of probability streams, this just happens to be yours today.

I was long by accident (ie. long time horizon, not a short-term trade). Did not predict this and do not feel any smarter because of it. The timing is the most surprising thing to me (ridiculous).

:/

Thanks for the kind words all. I only trade part time, it's something that I consider a serious hobby, but enough money flows around in it to make an income out of it. As it stands I wiped out my 2018+2019 profits on this play. It's definitely a humbling experience and made me realize that the impossible is always possible. Ironically I was already scaling back from trading as my new life situation was steering me towards something else, at least I went out with a bang

Yeah, you always have to manage your downside so you can let the upside take care of itself.

I'm proud that I have not gotten margin called on my core short position, and my cost basis for shorting jacked up from $340 to $650 simply from selling weekly ITM covered puts.

OTOH, 1/3rd of my short position is about to get putted away on my $1000 weekly put sell lol

weeeeeeeee

man, you're a lunatic

i like it

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/anal...ok-boomer.html

How much of a stock with this type of market cap can retail actually move the price? It still has to be a lot of institutions or something buying in?

Tesla was such a horrible investment/stock/company that even at the top of a giant penny stock like speculation bubble (nothing to do with fundamentals, pure lucky confluence of circumstances + Musk fraud), it still under performed stodgy Microsoft on the 5 year chart . Under performed in the best case scenario while taking massive amounts of risk as well.

In case anyone is curious, the current understanding is that this guy didn't sell yesterday and has currently lost most of this.

Which automaker do you guys think is going to amp up competition with Tesla first?

And I don't mean in the luxury SUV space as that is obviously a smaller market. But the mass market 40k range space like the Model 3.

How soon will be that be?

As you can probably imagine, I'm telling more than a few friends to be aware of the risks of investing in TSLA, lol.

I wouldn't mind a long-form bear case on the internet if anyone has 1 handy, but couldn't find 1 (like a previous poster said, it is tough to disprove some of Musk claims without just letting time do its thing)

Short form bear case is seeing what happens when subsidies die. In Europe, Norway fell off a cliff and never recovered, and was replaced by Holland, which has also fallen off a cliff as subsidies ended as of this year. Have a read of:

The Removal Of Tesla’s Dutch Treat Implies Management’s Forecasts Are Wildly Optimistic

Subsidies also just ended in the US. I'm not seeing robust US competition until late 2020, but when that happens...which you rather buy? A $50K Model Y SUV, or a $44K Ford Mustang electric SUV, both with similar specs and sexiness? Oh and Ford gets a $7500 subsidy so you get the same thing as the Tesla for $37K instead of $50K.

The other potential growth engine was China, which will be shut down for a month and slow to recover for another few months. A recession is even possible. There will be global auto supply shortages - S&P warned of this today - and this might even affect Freemont as the China shutdown continues.

In other words, this will be a terrible quarter for them, and it's up over 100% above even optimistic value in a crazy bubble.

Long-form bear case analyzing competition requires some serious analysis which I haven't seen anywhere. The prospect of meaningful growth in China was the main bull case, however. US and European markets are tapping out; California had half its normal sales last quarter, and it's usually a bulwark for them. Most of the good delivery numbers last quarter were driven by pull-forwards for expiring credits (US, Holland) and the initial surge in new markets around the world (now also tapped out) and a one-off surge in China (possibly fraud, also off the table now with this pandemic)

honestly pump and dump isnt a )% chance of what occured but. if major dip happens. IM ****ing getting IN

^ 12-10-2019, 03:23 PM

It will be so fitting if what does Elon in is not shorty, but cultish longs that FOMOed into a long squeeze and cause the stock to no bid on the way down since there's no shorty left to provide a bid. Fate loves irony.

The option prices are unreal

Even tho he seems like a bit of a loser, Sam Antar (of Crazy Eddie fame) commented that it isn't the bears that did in Crazy Eddie, it was the lunatic bulls. In Crazy Eddie's case, it was a hostile takeover bid they couldnt fight off.

The proud new owner fired all the Antars and performed a prelim audit. The new owner's were welcomed with a bunch of empty boxes of "inventory".

Man, the saga of Baggy Greg has been such an epic thill ride. He went from a comical Elon stan to a massive hater at exactly the wrong time. Who knows what 2020 will bring?