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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

02-03-2020 , 03:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis
I'm at $251. Today is the first time crossing 200%.
Unfortunately, I cannot say the same.

Edit

I sold mine for a small loss shortly after. I don't see a sell post by me and it's tacky/annoying as hell to see a posted trade with no follow through. So no I lost money.

Last edited by formula72; 02-03-2020 at 03:40 PM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
02-03-2020 , 03:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by juan valdez
I sold 800/810 march call spreads for 3.50. I'll do this a couple more times if it keeps going up and hedge a bit with put spreads.

This is too wild to sit out. I'm seeing people on fintwtit saying they've never seen anything like this with a few decades under their belt
There hasn't been anything like this since 1999. The VW thing isn't comparable b/c the float disappeared over night. All the other parabolic short squeezes were with far smaller companies. At this point, I doubt this is even a short squeeze. Looks like someone blew up today at $750 and I doubt there's anyone left with a sizable position who hasn't been stopped out. With the amount of pumping that Elon is doing, there may be some runway to run...or not, who knows with this thing.
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02-03-2020 , 04:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by calmasahinducow
There hasn't been anything like this since 1999.
The pot stocks were like this. All the dumbest retail buyers pile in because it's going up and there's a story they can understand. Together they went to what, $100 billion? TLRY alone was $30 billion on $100 million in annual sales revenue. The altcoins were like this as well and ran to $300 billion on $0 in annual revenue. Both are 95% off highs a year later.

Lots of dumb retail money + small floats + big simple story = moon in the right conditions (market all time highing, institutions wait and seeing). It seems to be a new reality in Robinhood/bitcoin days, where no one wants to miss out on the next ponzi. Social media helps fuel it to like never before - before the financial press and cold callers were the gatekeepers for mindshare. Now paid PR stooges on Twitter are.

As for VW, I'm think there's non-zero chance we're seeing something similar. With strong retail interest providing a bid and people holding, you merely need the float to shrink from its already small size to smaller with foreign money or institutions buying and you get action like this.

Apart from that I'll agree it's acting a lot like 1999/2000 Worldcom/Enron. They went up huge multiples over 100b+ before crashing. Frauds will pump and lie where honest companies won't (autonomous robotaxis anyone? 1000/week run rate in China?), court stock-price-raising PR, pay for pumpers, have numbers that are exactly what the market wants at exactly the right time (because they're made up).
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02-03-2020 , 04:22 PM
Fun fact: Tesla can buy Ford and $4 billion/year in profit - at a 60% premium to Ford's current price which would probably be plenty - for <40% of their current market.
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02-03-2020 , 04:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Legend
This recent move seems like a massive torching of shorts.
If this move about torching shorts i wonder if ultimate aim is to take out the many (i assume) last resort stops put in place just above $1000 that shorter's thought until recently where untouchable??
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02-03-2020 , 04:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Fun fact: Tesla can buy Ford and $4 billion/year in profit - at a 60% premium to Ford's current price which would probably be plenty - for <40% of their current market.
I was just discussing this with someone. In the end I think it doesn't make sense for Tesla and their mission since they'd be buying production lines for ICE vehicles and all that but it's bizarre that they could potentially buy out competitors.
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02-03-2020 , 05:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Fun fact: Tesla can buy Ford and $4 billion/year in profit - at a 60% premium to Ford's current price which would probably be plenty - for <40% of their current market.
Yea but then it would end up like the AOL Time Warner merger where 10 years later the new entity would end up writing down Tesla for tens of billions.

Unless Tesla wants to get in the high-volume SUV and truck business, with the SUVs and trucks built 90% by suppliers. Tesla is taking the Toyota track wrt vertical integration; they own the majority of the car, even the seats, which would be pretty much sacrilege to the new "thinking" in Detroit.
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02-03-2020 , 05:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by syndr0me
Man this is amazing, it's hard not to buy this thing even as a staunch bear.


I took a nice loss on this trade but have avoided it completely since the mid 300s, which makes me happy i guess.


I wasnt in the market during the .com phase, but it has to be something like this right?


Also, conspiracy theorist for the moment, im pretty firmly in the camp that Tesla is committing accounting fraud.
1999 was somewhat crazier. Qcom went from l8ke 5 to 100 in a year. Lol.
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02-03-2020 , 05:40 PM
The irony of Trump supporters in the thread losing their minds because of Elon Musk the "fraud" is just TOO good.

"Few things have humbled more smart people than shorting stocks." - Morgan Housel
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02-03-2020 , 05:43 PM
What does this have to do with Trump?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
02-03-2020 , 05:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
What does this have to do with Trump?
what do you think? Just take a stab at it. lol.
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02-03-2020 , 05:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Social media helps fuel it to like never before - before the financial press and cold callers were the gatekeepers for mindshare. Now paid PR stooges on Twitter are.
There was a time not all that long ago when I thought the Internet and the ability to spread news/information quickly would help make the markets more efficient. It's now very obvious that I had it backwards.
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02-03-2020 , 05:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
What does this have to do with Trump?
For those with advanced TDS, everything has to do with Trump
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02-03-2020 , 05:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
For those with advanced TDS, everything has to do with Trump
We live in a world where Musk is a fraud, con man, carnival barker, but Trump isn't. Cognitve bias is powerful. So is projection!


"Psychological projection is a defense mechanism people subconsciously employ in order to cope with difficult feelings or emotions. Psychological projection involves projecting undesirable feelings or emotions onto someone else, rather than admitting to or dealing with the unwanted feelings"
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02-03-2020 , 06:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
There was a time not all that long ago when I thought the Internet and the ability to spread news/information quickly would help make the markets more efficient. It's now very obvious that I had it backwards.
The strong efficient market theorem is almost impossible to be true. Regardless of who is on the right side, a 200% increase in such a short period of time is not based on fundamentals that changed correspondingly. Either the value was already there, or markets are propping up the stock wrongly. We've seen in 2019 that the internet and ability to spread news and (mis) information was a huge drag on the stock price so it isn't a given that these make markets more efficient.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
02-03-2020 , 06:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
what do you think? Just take a stab at it. lol.
I really have no clue. That's why I asked the question.
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02-03-2020 , 06:06 PM
Yeah I don't get it. Musk's fraudulent acts also have nothing to do with Trump's. Musk's numerous frauds also have nothing to do with the stock price. In fact, they usually help it like they did with Enron and Worldcom and Crazy Eddie. Fraud lets you put out false projections, pay for pumpers/social media influencers, court PR, and give the numbers the market wants to see at the right time rather than honest one. It helps the stock price tremendously right up until the end, especially in a bull market.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
We live in a world where Musk is a fraud, con man, carnival barker, but Trump isn't. Cognitve bias is powerful. So is projection!
But he is all these things. This is proven beyond all doubt. A week ago during the earnings call he flat out admitted that his FSD projections were pure bullshit, by shifting the goalposts to "non-zero" and "a few months" for "feature complete".

Musk is a fraud based on his own proven fraudulent actions. He's done a song and dance about shorts to hide that simple fact and make it tribal. It's misdirection as clever as his various donkey-carrots. You obviously got sucked in. This is what makes him a good conman. Trump employs the same tactics to good effect.

Quote:
"Few things have humbled more smart people than shorting stocks." - Morgan Housel
I don't think there are any good traders that didn't cover in the 100s or 200s. The demand death problems ending, and then Q3 earnings were easily sufficient for anyone rational to get out of the way. Similarly, no one put it back until the 500s.

At $190 as the bulls were reeling, no short posted this:

Quote:
"Few things have humbled dumb people more than betting their life savings on the promises of conmen" - Morgan Housel
We were watching instead for signs of demand turnaround, posting evidence and looking at numbers. The only reason I can imagine posting this is crippling intellectual insecurity, WorldBoFree.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 02-03-2020 at 06:12 PM.
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02-03-2020 , 06:08 PM
I'd like to pay respect to Mark Spiegel who willingly rode his 20% short position from the $200s torching it all the way up to a 5% short position at current price. I wish I could let go of my money that easily.
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02-03-2020 , 06:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
We live in a world where Musk is a fraud, con man, carnival barker, but Trump isn't. Cognitve bias is powerful. So is projection!
Sounds like you just want to take everyone that disagrees with any part of your deranged world view and paint them all into the same corner.

The vast majority who recognize that Musk is a fraud, con man and carnival barker are fully aware that Trump is as well.
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02-03-2020 , 06:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis
I'd like to pay respect to Mark Spiegel who willingly rode his 20% short position from the $200s torching it all the way up to a 5% short position at current price. I wish I could let go of my money that easily.
I'm pretty sure he was short Tesla from $35 or so when he first did his presentation about why they're doomed back in 2013. I troll the guy regularly on twitter every time the price goes up.
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02-03-2020 , 06:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
I'm pretty sure he was short Tesla from $35 or so when he first did his presentation about why they're doomed back in 2013. I troll the guy regularly on twitter every time the price goes up.
How are you not instantly blocked from his twitter if you call him out on his losses? Yeah he was probably short way back then but I know it was 20% at those levels. If he managed to stay short for the whole 2000% increase I bow down to him.
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02-03-2020 , 07:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Love Sosa
will tsla be the first trillion dollar car company?
chill tsla that was a joke....all we need now from this point is a humble six bagger and voila! trillion secured.
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02-03-2020 , 07:13 PM
TSLA at 700$ while ford is at 9$ and has been for 4 years

damn
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02-03-2020 , 07:15 PM
Right, because the price of a share is the only metric. Would you prefer Tesla does a 100x stock split so they are valued at $7?
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02-03-2020 , 07:33 PM
For anyone who still doubts the robotaxi thesis, Musk is hosting an FSD hackathon at his place in a cpl of weeks.
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