So you have no idea how many cars Tesla needs to sell and at what profit to justify the current stock price, got it. How about this, given everything you know - including your non-2D thinking - what's the most you would pay for a share of Tesla today?

This aged well (C. 2013)

fyp

Man this is amazing, it's hard not to buy this thing even as a staunch bear.


I took a nice loss on this trade but have avoided it completely since the mid 300s, which makes me happy i guess.


I wasnt in the market during the .com phase, but it has to be something like this right?


Also, conspiracy theorist for the moment, im pretty firmly in the camp that Tesla is committing accounting fraud.

I can't believe I got out from in front of this thing at 200, and have managed to not jump back in front of it. I almost pulled the trigger Friday. Thank god I didn't.

Is this thing really jumping 10% because some bull says OMG $7000/share! Or did I miss something this weekend?

I'm about done with this stock. Holy hell.

https://www.economist.com/business/2...-as-a-carmaker

Nope, you didn't miss anything. A couple of big analyst calls, nice Panasonic profit, Cramer pumping the **** out of it (the loser was bearish in the 200s and bullish now).

It's low float plus a bunch of insane fanboys I assume. Possibly a coordinated manipulation on a low float shorted stock - pennies do it sometimes and VW did in 2008 and Musk would certainly share MNPI at $180 when he desperately needed cash - but my working assumption is a bunch of people too dumb to sell and a speculation bubble. If a worthless pot company like TLRY with $100m/year in sales can scream to $30 billion/$300 before crashing back to $2 billion/$16, Tesla can easily have the same dynamics at 4x the valuation. There's a lot of dumb retail money out there.
It sure is a fun stock.

this makes sense, I don't think its a stock that is going to take the elevator down either, the HODLERs are part of a cult and will probably hold until they cant, hopefully some decent opportunities at some point, not yet though obviously

I'm perfectly happy to short here. Might you go deep in the hole maybe 10% of the time? Sure, stranger things have happened, especially in fraud stocks. But it's at $130 billion market cap and it's a struggling car maker approaching an order of magnitude above fair value. If people were happy to short/hold short at $190 with the 100% move-against risk that entailed as demand death eased (and they were, they didn't let it go), then why the **** wouldn't they be falling over themselves to get short now?

Shorts tends to be as irrational as the bulls on this stock. You short it when it's absurdly high and cover it when it's low. Vice versa for buying. It absurdly high now. It's no more complicated than that.

TSLA has positive FCF and profits at this point and sells more than enough cars to be a viable auto manufacturer in its own right. I agree with the Economist that mass market luxury brands like Daimler and BMW are the most appropriate comps.

That still doesn't come close to justifying TSLA's market cap. I think TSLA's valuation is impossible to justify on its car business alone even in near best case scenarios. What investors are banking on is Musk's ability to push into another product like he did with SpaceX and (at this point, I think pretty convincingly) and auto industry. I don't think investors are banking specifically on solar roofs, batteries, or anything specific in Tesla's portfolio now.

I think investors are counting on is Musk's ability to pull a rabbit out of his hat like Bezos pulled AWS out of Amazon's web retail business.

I think TSLA, as a high (for the industry) growth and high (for the industry) margin automanufacturer, has a viable (though, IMO, very optimistic) case for (ballpark) 40-60b valuation (spitballing, just eyeing future multiples). That still leaves like 40-60b valuation that amounts to a giant bet on Elon Musk.

Because it's tough when you've lost more than you thought was possible on a short that was always a slam dunk fundamentally and you now have no idea what the extent of the fraud and manipulation is behind the scenes.

This might be way more overvalued now with essentially no change in fundamentals, but what has changed is that it's clear Elon has way more control over the stock price than he did on the way down at $200

This recent move seems like a massive torching of shorts.

This would be the first $100 day for $TSLA right?

This is getting ridiculous

This is just wild. I somehow managed to make money long through earnings and the vol I sold has me a bit short by default. It's a small position and I defined the risk so this move isn't much of a burn.

This has to be a short squeeze, right? I mean its absolutely ripping. I'm going to get shorter here but not sure what the play is. I think with vol this high selling OTM call spreads for march might be the move. You really need your big boy pants to be naked here and it's just one stock. 1,000 march calls are selling for about 18 bucks though. It's just insanity.

Looks like it

Over half its market cap from 7 months ago - added in two hours.

My only concern for a short is Saudis or Chinese cornering. Musk could have easily given them MNPI much lower and planned something out. If it's just retail bubble morons (see: TLRY, dry shipping, altcoins over the last few years) then gravity will do its thing back to under $300.

What MNPI coudl Tesla have that is even valuable? They lie openly about things that dont exist, you think they are saving some good news for the select few?

Doesnt seem possible

Not if Tesla starts pulling the weeds in your backyard and cook up supper.

just nutty, when was last time we saw something like this happen?

At this valuation I'm pretty sure this is a first

Elon confirmed GOAT

I mean, yeah It did drop to the 170s a month later.

I'm at $251. Today is the first time crossing 200%.

I sold 800/810 march call spreads for 3.50. I'll do this a couple more times if it keeps going up and hedge a bit with put spreads.

This is too wild to sit out. I'm seeing people on fintwtit saying they've never seen anything like this with a few decades under their belt

def nutty then.


funny to see bears kept giving it **** while it went from 30, 400, 500 etc

I dont own any TSLA stock btw so I have no horse in the race and im ****ing stupid for saying nahh when I saw the hit after the JRE podcast