It's not that they're not capable of competing, it's that they had no interest in competing with a company selling dollars for 80 cents. But now that TSLA's tax credit is expired in the US, EVs are much more compelling for competitors with the full tax credit.

The hideous Model Y is already priced in as a massive success but I'm far from convinced it will sell nearly as well as expected at a profitable price point. Competitors will have some much hotter SUV/crossovers rolling out shortly.

Because their analysis starts at "have you driven one bro?" and ends at "stock price bro!"

Here for the lulz, nothing to gain by changing your mind, i come here for the small chance i stumble on a compelling bear thesis ... thread would be dead without the omniscient Sayer

The compelling bear thesis right now is that they have huge execution risk (even more so with the China epidemic), zero YoY growth in revenue or profits, and are priced for perfection in execution + 300%. Easiest sell in the world here at $635. Like "you'd have to be functionally ******ed to not sell here" type of no brainer sell (you're welcome).

You got your TLRY style bubble and are now running headfirst into major global risks and massive execution risks beside that. FSD/2020 robotaxis are also now officially dead for a long time (from Musk's own words) if you bought based on that.

Do you really think I am going to share my model with a bunch of idiots that is basically screaming and whining "FWAAAWWWD" day in day out while getting pounded like a gangbang movie? The response will be "but fwwaaaaaauuudddd" and that will be that.

I just enjoy licking the salt.

You don't have a model apart from "In Musk We Trust".

There's no model based on any fundamentals (including fundamentals that allow for "Musk Magic") that values Tesla at above $200. This is a car company, not a software company. They have nothing but cars for the large bulk of their revenue stream and never will have.

P.S. What happened to 1000 solar roofs/week by the end of 2019? Surprised we're not hearing about these mass installations supposedly happening? Another Musk lie?

See, there you are lying. You're a fraud.

Have you driven one good sir? Look at the stock price good sir.

When buying a Tesla, one does not buy a car, but rather, a money-printing-machine.

(Also true of the stock, incidentally).

Also who gives a **** about fundamentals when you can have fwaud. Next product is going to be the Model F.

In the 2000s tech bubble, the frauds and non-viable business (that were at $0 a year later) soared to heights that no one believed was possible. Enron had a market cap equalling Tesla's now at the peak of its fraud.

So I definitely agree it can pay to buy into fraud late in bubbles, as long as you know when to exit.

at first I thought TSLA was the next enron but theres no way.

so much value for those who got in when they need to. congats

You appear to be confused about the meaning of fraud. Even if you accept that his current definition of “feature complete” renders the previous definition false, he neither admitted that he knew it was false at the time he made it nor that even if he knew it to be false that he did it with an intent to defraud anyone.

He is beyond doubt consistently guilty of making overly optimistic predictions of what he can achieve in the future. Not even his staunchest supporters would deny that, hell, even he admits that he is usually too optimistic. Excessive hype <> fraud.

How is there no way? The run started by beating Q3 expectations by 1K deliveries. Miss by 1K and it would $240 now, the run would never have started. You think Musk, who had no problem at all lying and saying "funding secured" at $420, of doing a fake battery swap, fake roof tiles to sell a merger, wouldn't fake a few K deliveries in order to survive?

They got $3.4 billion in bonds at lows (when they desperately needed it) by claiming they were going to have 1 billion robotaxis in 2020 earnings 10s of billions in revenue for Tesla and being FSD "feature complete" by end of year. That was pure fraud, the claims of which also added to this run.

$1 billion of their bottom line at least is from pure consumer fraud on FSD, which is pure profit.

And there's zero chance these are the only fraud they're involved in. Their entire accounting staff quit, the last man standing was a 34 year old as the CFO. The do all their tracking on in-house software rather than standard packages.

So yeah, Tesla is definitely a fraud. How deep does the rot go? No one knows. And we probably won't until the next recession when the easy money dries up and they go into bankruptcy along with far better capitalized car markers.

This is complete bullshit. Let me give an analogy

April 2019: I'm going to sell you a fully automated stock trading software package for $5000. It will be "feature complete" by the end of 2019. It will earn you tens of thousands a year in profits and the price you paid for this package is likely to appreciate 5x in 2020 because these features will let you rent it out to others. Pay me $5000 please. The price is only going up in future.

January 2020: By "feature complete" I mean there's some non zero chance of executing a profitable trade. We might be feature complete in a few months.

If you brought a claim for fraud, would you win? You bet your ass you would. Feds would in there in no time to shut this fraud down. Why are FSD claims of exactly the same nature any different?
He's not overoptimistic. He makes these statements while knowing they are false. Discovery has proven that beyond doubt for prior claims (such as 5000 M3s/week by the end of 2017).

there absolutely is no way they are frauds LMAO, we ve seen first hand at the accounts of what they are building, what they are putting their money into with wharehouses and the like. not to mention we ve been getting starlink updates way more frequently.

We ve seen PHYSICAL, hard physical first hand accounts of what they are putting their money into and how it will function, not to mention their cars have had, forthemost part, positive reviews from consumers.


I said theres no way theyre the next enron because they are not and they are actually DELIVERING on their end, for what its worth. Enron stopped delivering anything halfway into their cycle and dint have nowhere near this much output

What the **** are you talking about? Enron had enormous growing real-world businesses in multiple areas (including tens of billions in buildings/utility businesses/real estate assets) with many millions of customers around the world. Crazy Eddie sold millions of mobile phones and had a huge store footprint. Worldcom was an enormous business with $107 billion in assets to divide up in bankruptcy after the fraud was unveiled.

It's not "legit business or fraud". It's enormous well regarded legit business AND fraud in all these fraud bankruptcies. Deliveries are slightly inflated. Costs are hidden/underreported. Profit is faked. Fake claims about the future are made.

Also, what does Starlink have to with Tesla? SpaceX isn't a fraud.

Tooth, iirc enron stagnated its last 40-50% of their lifespan. there was nothign new on their fronts. and I believe you were also attacking elon when you didnt buy into TSLA calling out their practices and spacex is tied along with that since elon is also behind it. the two can co exist.

are you sure you want to call this out for TSKLA, do you truly believe this about them? their prodict are no joke

Demand is dead, the growth story is over, they lose money on every car they sell and will never be profitable, they have no advantage whatsover, their battery technology is the worst in the industry and they are drawing dead in the self driving race. The quality of their cars is terrible and competition from the experienced companies is coming now to finally end the story. Elon is a fraud and a terrible person. The only reason Tesla is still alive is because Elon is defrauding taxpayers.

Did I pass the short Turing test? =)



This thread has been looking for cracks in Tesla for a long time. There has been hundreds of stories that should have ended the company. There will be plenty of more stories. Imo people should take a step back, observe what is happening in the meta of the discussion. Are the models used valid? Are the reasonings useful? Are predictions stated clearly, are outcomes compared, are models updated, is the feedback mechanism in the system working?

Imo the problem here has been that many arguments have been very hard to verify, they are stated in ways to make it easy to be right no matter what the outcome has been. And people have been very reluctant to admit their own mistakes and more interested in pointing out other people’s mistakes. Sure they are win the debate, but they don’t get rich. Except for some here with a great talent for making money in a stock that is going in the opposite direction of what it should be going by timing the market expertly. As long as everyone here is making money all good!

Anyway I will make some predictions.

2020: Tesla makes 550k cars
2021: Tesla makes 1M cars
2022: Tesla makes 1.5M cars

2020: Tesla makes $5B in free cash flow
2021: Tesla makes $10B in free cash flow
2022: Tesla makes $15B in free cash flow

Call me out every year, if I am wrong, at least I can learn something and be less wrong over time...

Book suggestion:
https://www.amazon.com/Superforecast.../dp/0804136718

Dude you have been wrong on absolutely everything about Tesla (especially autonomous driving in which you claimed expertise and were completely wrong about the state of Tesla's project vs a layman like me). All of your posted models were hilarious wrong in every category - you had them making billions in profits now across all categories and double the number of cars - they lost $700 million last year). You even got $420 funding secured wrong, in the snarkiest way possible, and disappeared like a coward after that.

It's hilarious that you're back. Why didn't you come back at $190 and call it a long like I did? Why now? That would have actually been helpful to people rather than narcissistic crowing at a high stock price.

Congrats on your stock appreciation (assuming you held through the downturn and didn't sell for a big loss). The only thing that's done well is the stock price, and only in the last 6 months.

Which makes this a screaming sell of course at $650. Let us know when you do.
I did exactly this and you disappeared and learned nothing...still making the same insanely wrong projections you made years ago.

There is absolutely no path to $5 billion in free cash flow in 2020, let alone $10 billion in 2020. It's pure crazy fantasy like your last projections were. Tesla have cut back hard on capex and opex (the numbers are so weird as to be fraudulent, how do you deliver 2x cars which SG&A goes down??) but these will need to ramp up again, for big losses and negative FCF.

my opinion is that this company is trading like CGC during its big move. The bulls have a legitimate story that the market has bought into, regardless of how plausible the longevity of it is or what the fundamental numbers say. Markets love stories. Certain viewpoints are validated as the prices moves (works both ways).

The price will revert to its "mean", its just a matter of when (fighting parabolic advances is a fools errand)

edit: IGNORANCE IS BLISSSSSS

Yeah it's doing a run up like the pot industry, driven by tech going on a massive run as well and the usual Musk donkey-carrot. TLRY sold $80 million/year in pot revenue at a big loss and ran to $30 billion. Same idiot money in a low float is flowing into Tesla imo.

Agree the story on both sides is intersting. I was screaming at the shorts to cover at $190, and even harder at $280 after Q3 earnings, but they held all the way up here because once it hit $220 or so they were fully, completely convinced that their thesis was coming true and that it validated their logic and they'd be dumb to cover.

Same thing here imo with the longs.
Your wish is my command. There's a lot of learning to be done here. Here is what you quoted as a plausible model (else why quote it?):

I blued the absolutely comical one, but they're all comical. You projected $7 billion profit (actual: $700 million loss) and massively profitable, high revenue solar roofs and energy totaling $20.5 billion together! (you're off by 20x on revenue and infinity on profit). You presumably invested on this thesis at $380 or whatever it was. Your investment thesis was comically wrong. Your -EV thesis caught a one out river with a huge squeeze on Musk's robotaxi fraud and deliveries fraud which has run it up to insane levels in tech bubble (compare with TLRY), kept your mouth shut at lows and through the runup, and now you want to crow about it and offer new projections which have no basis in reality? lol?
Book suggestion for you:

https://www.amazon.com/Artistry-Arti.../dp/1548004812

true, but also spent $1.34 billion on R&D (33% of gross profit)