I understand and that’s why shorting is not for the faint hearted. I initially went short at $350 and doubled down on the position at $400 to average things up. I have to admit it’s been quite a while that I was on the wrong side of a Tesla position this much, although I’m not nervous (yet), I’m definitely alert. A short position without stops has unlimited downside risk, so you have to size accordingly.

If it goes 700 I'll load more puts lol

@SuperSwag what timeframe to $0 on puts?

June 18th, 2021. Thought it was a reasonable timeframe. Don't want puts too early cause it might take some time for fraud to unravel if it exists. For example, IDK if the semi trucks are vapor ware.

Top is in

Tesla has just released deliveries.

In the fourth quarter, we achieved record production of almost 105,000 vehicles and record deliveries of approximately 112,000 vehicles

The numbers are good (as expected) but not major blowout considering how strong they are in certain markets. Tesla has run up to $440 on this news, in a market pretty spooked by a potential war with Iran.

Not a bad short here at all. The number is good for Tesla but reality is that they just beat the low end of guidance and it's not a huge blowout. Consider the following:

- Huge Holland sales from subsidies soon ending (6000 extra)
- US subsidy end pull forward (there are now no federal subsidies)
- Strong seasonal effects
- China and Denmark pops (7000 extra)

This is a pretty poor number. Q1 is likely to stink just like last year.

The market makes it quite an easy spot to short here at $436. Tesla also admit in their letter that their 1000/week claimed production in Shanghai is pure lying nonsense:

We continue to focus on expanding production in both the US as well as our newly launched facility in Shanghai. Despite breaking ground at Gigafactory Shanghai less than 12 months ago, we have already produced just under 1,000 customer salable cars and have begun deliveries. We have also demonstrated production run-rate capability of greater than 3,000 units per week, excluding local battery pack production which began in late December.

Despacito claimed weeks ago they're already producing 1000/week using local manufacturing (citing Tesla shills and Tesla shill news organzation) BUT the company now says they've only made "just under 1000" total ever, AND battery pack production, one of the most complex parts of the whole process, just started.

In other words, I'm correct and despacito/Tesla shills are completely wrong on this one. Shocker.

If Q1 is to stink again, why enter short now and not wait ~3 months?

Nothing wrong with waiting until the picture becomes clearer and getting after we see the data.

This year is a little different to last year though. Q1 last year had heaps of time to get in even as ample data came through of demand death. None of the bulls really believed it was happening and so they held until it slid so far they panic sold. But we were nowhere near this high back then and weren't sitting on 140% profit off the lows. I think the market will be a lot more sensitive to news of a slowdown. On the other side I think it's clear the upside is priced in...Tesla also just confirmed their Model 3 production claims in China has been a pure lie. They're making 1000/week but have less than 1000 made all together since starting, and have just started local battery module production just days ago? Ok bro.

At those delivery numbers they should show a loss, but I guess they could have more accounting tricks up their sleeve. Will be an interesting earnings for sure

Seems like this is the top. Can't imagine more good news or it running even higher off those numbers. Might play a 10-15$ drop for next week

The salt is unreal

You're whole purpose in this thread is to squeeze out the cracks whenever things are going well. You literally serve no purpose beyond acting as a foil to the tslaq clowns you claim to hate

At least I know the difference between you're and your. Oh and why would I inform life forms that refuse to soak up anything and just respond with "YEAH BUT HE'S A FWAUD SO.... THERE". You are just here for my amusement.

What a clown lmao. Stay pathetic

Not that it is freezing right now, but at least we're guaranteed enough salt to keep the roads ice free for the coming months.

I don’t understand why people are so emotionally invested in this stock. Bull or bear. If you’re long and making bank, kudos to you Kelvis. But I haven’t really seen you post any trade / position in this thread iirc. All I’m seeing is spiteful remarks whenever someone is writing out their bear thesis or mentioning they think the stock is overpriced.

They aren't "writing out their bear thesis", they just keep repeating it's all a fraud and just keep whining.

For disclosure, have been building up for about 18 months or so I think and am at a cost basis of $251.

Two Canadian examples come to mind

Nortel - 390 billion market cap at its peak (represented roughly a THIRD of the market cap of the Toronto stock exchange). Went to zero.

Bre-X - 7 billion market cap mining scam that went to zero, pricing peaked at $280/share. If you've never read about this one, it's worth researching - the story behind it is insane (fake gold discoveries, people being thrown out of helicopters, international intrigue). They actually made a movie about it called "gold" with Matthew Mcconaughey.

Adjusted for inflation I'm sure many companies wiped out in 1929 meet this criteria, as well as more historical examples like Tulipmania, Mississippi paper bubble, South sea bubble. I would recommend picking up Charles Mackay's classic "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" to read about the historical ones, it's a great book.

This is nuts. Soon enough this will be a fantastic short again.

You're going to have to take off your binary blinkers and find a way to unload your Musk love if you want to avoid getting destroyed again on Tesla like you did buying in on $420 "funding secured" fraud, when smarter people told you what reality is.

Stock is up a lovely amount here at $445. If you're planning to hold for the long term you will deeply regret not offloading above $400.

Ditto to Tooth. You've doubled your money in ~6 months. You should be taking some off the table.

How would you categorize your posts?

Who is "they"?

I did not claim this. I cited sources and said I was not convinced by them. If Tesla truly has demonstrated 3,000 per week already, it matters less. That is very fast spin up of production.

Musk wants that billion enough to find other pumps imo. Not sure what they might be.

They're liars and frauds. They consistently claimed the same about Model 3. They're nowhere near 1000 per week hand assembly from US imported parts, let alone from scratch. They admitted they just started battery module production last two weeks, which makes the whole thing a farce.
China and another fake profit is about it. FSD is dead.

FYI, I read the award and it's based on the average of the last six months being above the target level to trigger the release of options consisting of 1% of the company (released 1% each at $100b, $150b, $200b, up to $600b for 12% total). This is also a profit component higher up.

So I don't think gimmicks will get there.

Because fwaud, gotcha. You're one of the "they".

I’ve not really checked this thread in years and I’m amused to see the same people making similar arguments about the obvious “fraud” that is Tesla and predicting it’s imminent demise while ignoring the degree to which they were wrong about how the traditional car companies being poised to swoop in and crush when I used to read here 4 or 5 years ago. I still love my car, the stock, the company and look forward to buying my wife a model Y sometime in 2020. I did have concerns that the company would not survive the launch of the 3 and I think it was a clear inflection point where the whole thing might have collapsed, but I think the risk of catastrophic failure is now mostly over. FWIW, I agree that the stock is currently overvalued and the Elon is a bit of a nut job.