Taking out the pure trash who volume post and can never provide content is a good thing. It should have been done a long time. I didn't ask for Kelvis to be banned, or Spurious, or even astroturfing despacito, or anyone actually. Everyone has some value. Kelvis is valuable for what certain bulls are thinking/emoting. Spurious has unique ideas and keeps it real. despacito runs a good astroturfer case. They all bring something.

But when someone is so utterly dense they can't keep up with even the most basic of arguments, constantly misreading everything, and spite-tilted besides and high volume, the trash has to be taken out. It's not hard. Turtletom on the self driving thing was the last straw, completely ignorant of the topic matter, so completely dense he couldn't even understand what was being said (my point was that even a half assed non-professional coder like me could create the buggy 95% crap that Musk is about to reveal, an uncontroversial point if you have any familiarity with the subject matter). Maybe with despacito and rickroll explaining the obvious to this guy, he gets it now, although I doubt it. A few posts before that he was correcting a high end patent lawyer on an insanely stupid/irrelevant point of law (while admitting hadn't even read the case and didn't know what it was about). Add in bad faith and high volume and that's what moderators are for. I can try ignoring him but it will make no difference, he'll just amp it up. There's no fix for stupid, persistent, high volume, admitted troll and bad faith like this except to kick them out of content threads.

Patent law isn't litigation bud and claiming you can code a better self driving car then what Musk is going to introduces is still lol.

You get so hot and bothered when someone agrees with you. Peak self confidence.

Also, I'm just starting to realize most of TSLAQ is just jealous of Musk. Guys started multiple successful companies but every drooler with a keyboard wants to call him a dumb dumb. Some guys in this thread have beed fading it from damn near the ipo. When do you re-assess your thesis?

(I still have no opinion on tsla, but some very bad risk management has taken place itt. That's the best content/ lesson that can be learned from this thread)

Did you see the summon disaster (3 years late and running into objects)? It underperforms 2010 code in numerous ways.

The simple point, which you wasted pages on because you're too dumb to get it until multiple people explained it to you, is that 95% is nothing and can be trivially coded.
I love it when people disagree with me. That's the point of this thread/discussion. When people too stupid to understand even the very basics of the subject matter go on multipage posting sprees, with bad faith/trolling besides, it makes it **** for everyone.

The opposite is clearly true - Musk received a decade of uncritical adulation from nearly everyone, much of it carefully tended as Elizabeth Holmes did. As a result most people view him in a highly positive light. It was his own blatant lies, frauds, self dealings and clownish incompetence which got the attention of TSLAQ. And only because they were particularly egregious. Look at my first posts in this thread - I had the same praise-giving view of the guy as most people before I actually looked deeply at details.

With you it's just hot take after hot take that's completely wrong.
This thread starts at $100, long after the IPO. Most of the current bears liked long at the time. I guess if you just make **** up it helps your position? Another wrong take.

The only mistake the bears made was not to cover six months ago when the demand death turned around and sales were adequate for survival/recovery. And only some bears made that mistake.
How on Earth do you know this? All the bears in this thread seem fine for position sizing/managing their positions. Once again a completely wrong/ignorant hot take.

The actual lesson to be learnt from this thread is that you shouldn't:

- Stick hard to your opinion while ignoring changes in fundamentals and news
- See the price as confirming your thesis

The bulls did that at a clear fraud $420 funding secured, they did through heaps of hard evidence demand death when it was clear Tesla was in deep trouble at $300 and going much lower, and they're doing it now again. The bears did the above by not getting out at a clear turnaround of demand death and even more so after earnings.

I don't think any other mistakes were made. The bears made great, highly profitable trades in an up market until 3 months ago. In the past few years Tesla has horribly underperformed and is down even now compared to the market - it was an incredible long hedge. Bulls that got out on the above events, and back in on the turnaround, also did very well.

I made a similar observation early this year. Search thread for Briggs Myers if you want to see the exchange. TS’ responses only confirmed my thesis.

100% Musk wearing stripes posing for a goofy mugshot in the near future. It's called pattern recognition and how IQ is measured. If you can't figure out what's coming next after these headlines you deserve to lose:

Elon Musk ‘is a Trainwreck’, leadership expert says - CNBC.com

Tesla factory is a ‘hotbed of racism’ ex employees claim - NYPost.com

Elon Musk’s weekend of tweets ends badly, accused of anti-semtism - Vanityfair.com

Tesla hit with another lawsuit, this time alleging anti-LGBT, threats, taunts, discrimination - www.theguardian.com

Elon Musk now baselessly accusing Thailand cave diver of being a ‘Child Rapist’ - Telegraph

Musk won’t stop calling diver a pedophile. The CEO of Tesla cannot drop his beef with the British cave rescuer - www.washingtonpost.com

Tesla CEO Elon Musk lashes out against the SEC - ‘I do not respect the SEC’ following $40 million fine for securities fraud - CNN.com

Investors sue Elon Musk for Twitter ‘mistatements’. Tesla’s Elon Musk sued again over his tweets - www.engadget.com

Walmart sues Tesla over fires at seven stores - USAToday.com

Tesla owners file class action lawsuit due to Tesla exaggerating capabilities of its Autopilot 2 to consumers - Reuters.com

Elon Musk’s increasingly erratic behavior comes at a price. Elon Musk is hurting Tesla with his bizarre behavior - www.forbes.com

Tesla and Elon Musk face dozens of lawsuits and investigations far beyond the SEC - CNBC.com

Elon Musk’s twitter meltdowns are symptoms of a much bigger problem. The public meltdown of Elon Musk - NBCnews.com

Tesla short seller: Musk is a ‘lying magician’ who people have stopped believing. “There’s no pilot on the plane” - Yahoo.com

SEC pushes to hold Elon Musk in contempt of court. Musk is in blatant violation of settlement agreement - BBC.com

Elon Musk under fire for refusing to credit an artist, again - Forbes.com

Tesla’s boycott of advertising not working, “They don’t have a choice. They have to advertise” - CNN.com

Being really rich doesn’t make you clever - as Elon Musk has so adeptly shown - Independent.co.uk

Elon Musk’s Chicago tunnel makes a dumb idea even dumber - Wired.com

Tesla stock plummets after Elon Musk smokes weed on live show and two execs quit in one day - NBCnews.com

Elon Musk’s promise of 1 million robo-taxis by next year is so unrealistic he’s being compared to PT Barnum - www.businessinsider.com

Video of Tesla Model S exploding adds to Tesla woes. At least 14 instances of Tesla cars catching fire since 2013 - Reuters.com

Tesla countersued by Whistle-blower. Pictures of battery parts he said could catch fire, “A major safety, a public safety concern”- Guardian.com

Even if you don't care about his lack of character the refusal to advertise is a total deal breaker. The auto industry spent a quarter trillion dollars on marketing the last 5 years while Musk uses 'memes' and tries to go viral on social media. One of these parties is wrong and won't be around much longer - either Musk or General Motors/Ford/Chrysler ("The Big 3").

I'll look it up, but, yeah, its just pretty apparent at this point.

Edit: this was directed at grizy's post.

Nope.

I don't agree. Yes he's committed large scale criminal frauds (and who knows what else if he commits criminal fraud on this level in the open), but the history of fraud is that it runs for a long time and regulators and criminal charges generally only come in after it's collapsing.

I mean let's look at the history of pure outright criminal frauds:

1. Bernie Madoff started his ponzi in the 1980s, and it continued for over 20 years despite ridiculous returns and no plausible way of making the money. He had a similar "hero" thing going as Musk - he'd founded the Nasdaq, sat on various boards, was highly regarded among NY Jews. It survived multiple tipoffs and multiple SEC investigations despite the fraud not even being clever. This pure ponzi that ended in 160 years of jail didn't get found out until the situation was forced in the 2008 crash and too many people tried to withdraw money. This went to $60 billion.

2. Theranos was founded in 2003, and was a pure obvious fraud on its core technology. It didn't get found out until 2015, by the actions of a single investigative reporter. She claimed, like the clowns in this thread, that the motivations were personal and that people were attacking her for her gender and success. It went to $10 billion.

3. Enron didn't get found out until the tough conditions of the 2001 crash dried up its credit and made its fake dealings unviable. This was a $160 billion fraud in today's money. It ran higher and higher to incredible levels as the fraud ramped up.

4. Crazy Eddie was a fraud that ran for 28 years from 1960 to 1988, with tax avoidance and constant falsification of profits and revenue. They tried to take the company private after their IPO (sound familiar?) when things got a bit hot under the collar (which they called "short attacks" - sound familiar?) but instead ran into a hostile takeover from an investor who thought he was getting a bargain. Once that investor took over the company, the books showed decades of criminal fraud and inflation. People went to prison. This fully reformed felon openly and loudly calls Musk an obvious fraud:





So while I agree with you that Musk is clearly a criminal fraud - court filings detail strong evidence that he already has done serious criminal fraud with SCTY (deal + company) and that $420 tweet and knowing deliberate material lies about production - I don't agree on the timeline. For some reason frauds tend to run for a very long time and don't get caught. It will likely take external events to take the company down/have a cash crunch before the fraud comes out - a market crash, liquidity drying up, serious investigative journalism (why do you think Musk hates and harasses and is obsessed with the shorts so much?), Model Y flopping and causing a serious cash crunch, etc. Any incompetence and fraud can usually continue indefinitely until these things happpen, and fraud also allows manipulation of the stock price by creating exactly what investors want to see. As as a conman it's actually a great strategy to create a cult of personality and attack the shorts as having personal motivations - you create a tribalism that gets people like despacito and Kelvis advocating for you and putting cash in, and sliming people who try to point out the clear evidence for fraud ("you just hate Musk and his success! you're jealous!"). It's very effective. You can also tell absurd outrageous fraudulent lies (FSD feature complete by end of 2019, 1 million 5x appreciating robotaxis in 2020 producing $30 billion in profit for Tesla, $420 funding secured, solar roofs ready to go in 2016, 5000/week Model 3 by end of 2017) and have people believe you because you've hooked them into your cult of personality and they trust you.

Which is another reason (see my earlier discussion with morishita) why betting against fraud is stupid. You have to bet on fundamentals and investor opinion, and only on fundamentals and investor opinion, and completely ignore the fraud aspect. I actually think if we were to analyze the data it would show that betting against a fraud is -EV compared to other options.

Yes please do search this. It's hilarious.

Every time you bother to engage him, he wins.

If you put him on ignore, he loses.

It's that simple.

Ok, I'll try it. It hasn't worked before, he just posts and more. Some trolls are so motivated/gone they won't stop short of a ban. But turtletom, kelvis, grizy, ASAP17 all on ignore.

TS is on my ignore list because he is incapable of keeping up with the most basic of arguments that run contrary to his view and constantly slams down walls of text repeating the same attacks ad-nauseam.

TS, keep repeating you can code 95% working self driving.

Since you will lash out and say I know nothing. I will tell you what I know. I know actual lead programmers at Google and none of them think anyone is 95% to full self driving. The consensus, among people actually working on self driving cars, is basically they are barely out of the starting gate and there is a very good chance it’s an unknown company with unknown algorithm/technology that will be the winner in FSD race. (Notice this same paragraph implies Tesla’s claims of robotaxis are jokes deserving of ridicule.)

Now keep repeating you can single handedly code a 95% working FSD car in a year. Let me offer you a tip, if you can take a Tesla and make its FSD 95% working within a year with your own code (supplemented by open source stuff, and a LIDAR if you want), you can get a job far more lucrative than the trades you’ve been posting.

I used the phrase 'in the near future' instead of 'in the very near future' similar to the difference in medicine between urgent care and emergencies. They're both happening soon, but one is immediate. IMO the last time Elon was 'true' to himself (and not a fraud) was back in the dot.com era with PayPal and Peter Thiel.

This was the reason for the bizarre 'daddy.com' Twitter name change/deletion IMO. Elon regressing mentally to when his life wasn't a disaster. If I was Elon's high school guidance counselor my advice would have been any job that that doesn't involve interacting with people. He just doesn't have the skill set to find diplomatic solutions. I don't know why he doesn't have these skills. Could be a case similar to the affluenza teen with too much money to tell right from wrong, but that's besides the point. People just don't like him, and nobody wants to buy a product from someone that makes them feel sleazy (why athletes make terrific endorsers).

Anyway, my feeling is this fraud has been running for 20 years already (dot.com era) and the house of cards is due to tumble shortly. Elon's personality is much better behind the scenes, and I would attribute nearly all the success of PayPal to Thiel who seems to understand people/empathy. Elon's not really been under the gun to show a profit because of truly staggering government subsidies - 5 billion. A lot of that has dried up so we'll see if he can muster the charisma to get people to like him and buy product - AKA be a salesman.

If I was betting though, I think this is a case where the mercy rule from little league applies when you're down 10-0 and it's best to just forfeit. He's burned too many bridges to become likable no matter what move he makes. This Letterman appearance about sums it up. Dave is connected to every mover and shaker in America, and the birdies in his ear said take a dump on Elon because he messed with the wrong people. It's possible these are the shorts Elon rails about taking an approach similar to Soros when he 'broke the Bank of England'. (Using gnome accounts a la Billy Walters to place bets in Vegas and conceal their identities.)

Conspiracy theories aside, it's clear very powerful people are upset with Elon. With lots of similarities to the happenings in the White House. I'm apolitical (so don't read into party affilliation), but Trump's inner circle are all serving time for fraud - Manafort, Cohen, Stone - with the cross hairs now firmly on Trump himself. Elon may have been in a similar situation and met a 'Roy Cohn type character' while at PayPal or through his "evil" father, who knows, the point was he's been on a downward spiral for decades already and this is the tail end of it like the bigger drama at the WH.

Speaking of foreign meddling though. Does anyone think Musk may be an agent of a country other than America? When viewed through squinted eyes, his overall profile does resemble a typical Chinese billionaire (heavy reliance on subsidies/state run business model) with an agenda to disrupt the "seven sisters" stranglehold on the petroleum industry. He's also made extremely bizarre comments about aliens indicating he's nowhere close to the highest levels of power, being intentionally held at arms length as a threat to national security. Or maybe it's just me?

Easy to code FSD to 95%? I guess it that depends on how you define 95%. To me it's kind of like being 95% pregnant. "We did all the preliminary stuff. Just need that zygote to embed and we're there."

It looks like you're right. For example, grizy's first post after I added him to the list admits this:
Funny how he's never shared his (claimed) knowledge of the thoughts of "lead programmers at google" or that "Tesla's claims of robotaxis are jokes deserving of ridicule" before. That would have been useful information for thread and the 2p2ers making bets on that, no? Multiple two plus twoers could have used that information, some of whom thought there was a chance Musk could do this. Instead this information is only worth using to attack me, giving us this concession as a way to desperately try to improve the credility of his attack. I mean, he's just proving me right about these guys and their bad faith and trollish obsession.

That statement also directly implies that Musk is either a complete idiot who lacks even basic knowledge of FSD, OR 2020 robotaxi claims, right before selling $3 billion bonds earlier this year on those claims (he talked about FSD robotaxis in 2020 and the revenue they'd generate for an hour), were pure deliberate fraud. If we give Musk any credit for not being a total idiot (and we should), then what we have is straight up deliberate fraud on the 2020 robotaxi claims. According to grizy, not me.

QED I think.

And by the way, 95% complete refers to navigating most situations well. I made this very clear when I said
Do you understand the clear and easy point I was making? It's trivially easy to make something that looks 95% done to a layman, but is actually far far off because the last edge cases (5% of scenarios) are where all the hard work is.

The upcoming FSD preview will be exactly this (or worse, if summon is anything to go by), so it has the potential to seem positive to layman as they become ecstatic about it stopping at stop signs and taking left turns while actually proving to the knowledgable that it's nowhere at all. The stock response should be interesting. I predict the preview release of FSD will be substantially negative if it goes to wide release, but the "95% done" aspect might appeal to laymen who don't understand all the work is in the last 5% and that Tesla are multiple years from robotaxis because they're nowhere on that last 5%.

I wonder what it's like to go through life never believing you could be wrong.

Grizy has no qualms about lying here if it fits his statement so I'd immediately toss out anything he says that's based upon "someone I know says this"

not saying he's necessarily lying here but he has an established track record of fabricating facts to suit his argument and in the China thread alone has blatantly lied about a half dozen things then chalked things up to "well from a certain point of view it's not a lie" when called out on it

In reality it's probably his cousin who works at radio shack and uses Google daily and he'll find a way in his mind to stretch that into a lead programmer at Google somehow

Just saying...

So he could lie= he did lie? That's not sound reasoning. Tooth's claim makes no sense on it's face. Clearly, if he could do what he claimed things would likely be different then they are presently. It's hard to swallow your jealousy of Musk, incorrect positioning in tsla, and your hate of me. If you did you'd see the obvious error.

Of course. Still funny.

At $432 here the stock is a nice long term short if you're prepared to take some substantial pain on (likely very good) delivery numbers in 7 days. You've got four possible downsides:

- An inline delivery number and sell the news under $400 (25%)
- A disappointing profit number (in a month) and very strong selling down to $350 or so (10%)
- Q1 falling off a cliff due to seasonality and the credit fully ending in the US (which is probably helping this quarter and also killed Q1 last year) - will become obvious in late January to mid Feb like it did last year (25% and $320 or less)
- FSD preview - if it's released and Musk isn't lying about doing a preview in the next few days - being a total disaster and maybe killing people (40%, 10%) for $375 or so
- A market pullback on a stock with 130% profit in it in the last 6 months (15% by end of Feb).
- A slim tail with huge moves for something unexpected (they're a car company with a horrible record and previous fraud) (5%).

On the other side in terms of risk you have:

- A pretty good to great deliveries numbers and strong buying/actual short covering beginning (~40%)
- Model Y actually being moved forward a lot into early 2020, as an analyst claimed a few weeks ago based on news from Chinese suppliers (20%), and production and sales of Y beginning continuing the euphoria. There's a lot less risk of failure with Y because it's basically a 3 on known line procedures/known parts.
- China providing highly positive pumps as meaningful numbers of cars go out. There will be no local production until mid 2020, but hand assembly from US-shipped parts can be spun into something.
- Musk's ability to commit fraud to juice the numbers. That ability (when it was very close to the line in Q3 and minor fraud and one-time tricks could turn it positive) was why I suggested sitting out at Q3 earnings, particularly if short.

It's worth noting that under the terms of his $60 billion pay deal, Musk makes around a billion dollars cash at a stock price of $555, 28% higher than now, because $100 billion market cap releases some of his options.

"It's a nice long term short..." so are you short? *crickets

Love how he keeps changing his percentages too, lmao.

This is just an opinion, where is the data that supports it? Not interested in how it's lagging the market, I'm speaking in absolute terms. Seems like shorts have been blown up plenty as a group and likely individually, I mean Einhorn isn't a billionaire directly because of this position lol.

Not the first time TS has bragged about his supposed coding ability and how simple and easy it would be to replicate FSD. From the NFLX thread (while he was arguing it was a sub $100 stock next year lmao).

You hear that guys? An equivalent UI to Netflix... IN A WEEK. Imagine what TS could accomplish if he didn't have us to look after boys, all the time spent here instead of selling his abilities for millions of dollars. We're so lucky.

User interfaces aren't that complex. The back end is a much bigger deal.