I don't think any of that is relevant, all that matters is can they keep putting up profitable quarters & increasing sales. If/when they want to raise money, what does that do to sentiment/price action?

EVs are having a bad few months in China, is there an opportunity for TSLA (a lot of good news last few weeks specific to their operation/funding) to take market share from the hundreds of local competitors?

We know you don't believe in technicals but classic breakout on decent volume, pretty much all of the long term bulls (I say this because we all know how easy it is to make a bad short term trade or adjustment) are making money surrounded by a bullish global equity market with accomadative central banks in almost every major economy.

You better hope for some fraud if you are TSLAq because the goal posts have been moved so far down the field you have to squint to see them.

I love it. *surprise* Its the first car I've truly loved. The best analogy is that its like getting your first iPhone/smartphone. Its just a game changer.

No issues with it yet. I don't have the FSD option, just the basic, and honestly, its all I would ever need. Its great for sitting in stop and go traffic. Living in LA, that alone is worth about 10k to me ha.

Almost everything about it is better than any other car Ive ever owned. The air conditioning is insanely good. The stereo is insanely good (I record music for a living). Its faster than almost every other car on the road and with one pedal driving, I have way more control of the car than I would have expected. The ability to speed up and slow down on a dime is amazing. The camera is way better than any other car I've had. Backing up is so much easier. The sensors on the sides and back of the car always tell you exactly how many inches you have to the curb, etc. The audio of cell phone calling is great. I can access my Spotify account on the main panel which is built in. The maps are built in with the car and awesome on that big screen. There are tons of little things, that I thought I wouldn't care about, but they really add up. Like, I didn't think I'd love the synthetic leather as opposed to real leather, but I'm completely sold. Its really durable and so easy to clean. everything just comes right off of it. The various driving settings are really cool. You can really customize your driving experience much in a normal car. With the Tesla there are lots of tweeks you can make to make it more to your liking.

Not having to go to a gas station is nice. Being able to "fill up" at home is so nice. I charge about once every 4 days, overnight, and I program the charging to start when the sun comes up. That way, the energy is coming straight from the sun via my solar panels. By the time I wake up, the car is charged.

The one time I took it into the service departement to check on a small thing when I first got that car (it turned out to be exactly what it was supposed to be, I just didn't know), was a breeze. It was like making an appointment to go through McDonald's drive through.

It just blows away any other car Ive had. My last three cars were a Volvo, BMW, and Audi. Add to the fact that I'm not using gas to run it? I know that's mostly symbolic, but to me, that still really matters. When the envirnment is on a collision course to oblivion and no one is really taking it seriously enough, the symbolic nature of at least trying to live more sustainable matters imo. That piece of mind makes me feel a little bit better, even though I know I'm not carbon negative by any means.

Are you sure you're not a moron?

I think #2 is quite high since that is Musk's only out at this point (going out OSTK style), so he will commit all the fraud necessary to jack the stock price. Probably going to get an absurd print of 108-115k deliveries and 900m in profits for Q4, with possible entry into the S&P 500.

I am starting to think they can pull this off because Tesla was forced to buy a lot of TSLA calls as part of the May equity/debt raise from the underwriters, which they can *maybe* cash out as profits. I think this is why the stock is violently rocking upwards because those same underwriters are now being forced to buy the calls back in the open market and the dealers are forced to buy TSLA to delta hedge.

Would be funny if the payout triggers a TSLA liquidity crisis though; I don't think they could pay that and still have enough for cap ex/ops/fulfilling China requirements.

I've never bought your "cash on hand is probably a fraud" take. I think they have the cash they claim on the books. It's not like we can't tell what cars are being sold or in what numbers or what prices - we have registration data to tell us any major anomalies. On top of that they rake in vast sums from subsidies and grifting, like the $750 million Buffalo factory paid for with tax money.

There are minor frauds in here for sure - I don't think any analysis of the question "are the massive public frauds that Elon has done the only frauds in Tesla?" could be resolved by any rational person at more than 20%. A funny example is Q1 2019 deliveries/demand death after claiming they had "420,000" M3 preorders just months before. The entire accounting staff quitting + in house software are another two huge flags. But if it exists it's more likely to be fraudulent misallocation, overstating profits, rather than outright lying about cash available. There's a lot of wiggle room in the accounting that doesn't affect FCF.

The real risks to the downside for 2020 are not fraud being discovered but they Y/China sales being a flop. Both are moderately probable, and there's nothing else in the pipeline at all. Cybertruck is late 2021 to start and could easily be a flop given its design. Right now it's priced for perfect execution + high upside surprises, and no one is thinking about risk in a good news euphoria.

My numbers here would be:

1. Tesla goes below $250: 75%
2. Tesla goes above $560: 10% (30% if he commits fraud)
3. Musk is charged with a criminal offense related to Tesla or Solarcity : 15%

But I'm really interested in what others think.

The last one might be wildly optimistic given law enforcement's unwillingness/inability to investigate fraud until all the chips have fallen. Madoff (a pure ponzi fraud as big as Tesla) survived for 30 years despite multiple whistleblowers and red flags. Enron didn't collapse until the market did and the cheap money ran out. Crazy Eddie went for many, many years until the fraud was found out by someone who bought them out. It seems par for the course for these things to be sparked by running into the end of financing/market conditions that let the fraud stay covered.

It isn't a fraud in the sense that they didn't have the cash as printed at the time it was printed; it's more of the average usuable balance throughout the quarter must have been a lot lower based on the interest income, and it was window dressed at EoQ before most of it went out the door on AP. The interest income indicates that their average cash balance is less than half of what they print.

The question is what the heck is the rest of the money doing since it's not bearing any interest. Some of it must be in escrow to fulfill covenants, some of it is temporarily borrowed on their credit line as window dressing to be immediately repaid back, and some is stuck in China with no pathway to repatriation. Such cash may as well be on the moon as far as Tesla is concerned since it's essentially unusable.

Dude you are obsessed with Enron and ponzi like comparisons, it's done nothing for TSLAq except lose them money. Look at WBF gushing review, people love the cars. It's really that simple, they have insane customer loyalty and once they bring you under their umbrella it's hard to go back.

Competition is coming but let's face it, they are still the clear leader in a growing space. The other major automakers directly cite them for why they all are going with an EV line while being slow to take any meaningful share themselves.

You really don't get it, do you? If you relax and take a breath and let go of your hate of me/instareply, you might get the point of the discussion, which you've completely missed. I'm trying to talk down someone who's obsessed with Tesla as a fraud (thinks their cash is a lie) and has held horrible short bets because of that obsession despite my urgings otherwise to cover/get long. I've actually tried to do that before with mori in this thread, probing his excessive bearishness.

Doing that necessarily involves conceding some points they have that are strong to make them come around to the light.

Not that I want him to cover now. A short here at $425 makes a heap of sense, although you might have to endure some pain in 9 days when deliveries comes out. But you need to be rational about your position/able to change or you'll get killed in a stock like Tesla (on either side).

I'm definitely interested in getting a model 3 in the future, not a complicated guy as far as auto needs (drive a 15 year old Lexus) the couple friends that have it all say it changed their lives lol. Just a different experience from any old gas sedan. Please keep stopping by with your thoughts, a big problem in this thread is you are one of the only semi regulars that actually owns a Tesla.

The difference between you 2 is Morish is a lot more believable as far as talking your book(s) (meaning he's believable and you aren't). I can trust his opinion whereas I can't trust yours because I know you are FOS about where you are at. Still waiting on those screenshots on your bullish trades from this year...

I admit that I was completely wrong about tossing so much money at lower strike puts, as at the time I didn't realize that Rive/Kimball/possibly Elon himself have margin calls to defend at the 170s and thus Elon would do everything possible to kick the thing off of 170s as too far below that would truly be a game over. Should have covered everything like you said; would've been up 100% for the year.

Oh well, I'm not making that mistake again. The equity short losses don't really matter as much since as long as I can manage the position and continue to sell covered puts to mitigate the losses it will all come crashing down eventually; just at a much longer time frame than I would've liked.

Morish, I know I've said this a bunch of times but I genuinely appreciate your openness about your positions because right now there are quite a few people hurting (some of whom have completely dissappeared btw) based on all the hype. Love that you've been selling those covered puts as well, seems like you have a good understanding about how to manage it. Merry Christmas dude, you are one of the few bears in this thread I'm rooting for.

Thanks and Merry Christmas to you too. This has certainly been quite the learning process, but I think any 2p2er would agree that figuring out how to make these kinds of hard bets and win off of them is what makes life interesting.

Although once the current bubble pops, I will most likely just go back to boring multi year long value+catalyst stocks again.

I don't believe the $170 margin call was real either. I'm just trying to get through the bubble that the crazy TSLAQ twitter follows have put in your head. The general rule is to never ever buy into a conspiracy or gotcha type trade, ever, no matter how juicy or realistic; confirmation bias will create the juiciest of conspiracies and gotchas (especially if the people you listen to are intelligent, and TSLAQ mostly are). Anyone who pushes forth a conspiracy should be completely ignored. especially when their first one failed.

Solid, factual data that assumes everything is above board (like we did with demand death numbers from $300 to $180, and then the thesis reversing when the death reversed) is the only way to ever trade or invest. It's so tempting to read these gotchas and think you've got a sure thing from people you trust but they're always bullshit and usually cost money; they're -EV so just eliminate. Unfollow (and never read again) anyone who led you down this path on Twitter.
Yeah if I played short I'd be pretty happy to have a short position here at $425. I think you'll have a nice year (absent possibly a little more pain in 8 days), it's priced for perfection. Deliveries are the only reason I wouldn't shove short; the global numbers seem very good, this is traditionally a strong seasonal quarter, and if US is in line (actually if it's not down a lot), there's going to be a very nice quarter. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the volume buying is MNPI on deliveries; Musk owes a lot of favors to a lot of people who've bailed him out and we know he has zero scruples (SCTY/"Funding secured" lie/smearing a hero as a pedo just being three examples). 2x volume for a week and a half in a slow market seems more than retail.

The 170's for Kimbal and Rive were indicated in discovery from the Solar City lawsuit; Kimbal almost got margin called at 175ish before Elon put out the M3 announcement to save him. Musk is just a guess, though I can believe that it is actually much lower. Hence, the leaked e-mail that jumped it to the 180s last June killing the demand death story like you mentioned.

So even if Kimbal and Rive got extra stock-based compensation to lower the margin call price, the margin call can't really be that much lower.

I think you're way overvaluing this. It's not zero obviously, but I think it has to be way under 15% - maybe less than 5%.

Musk has gotten to the point he's almost too big to fail. It'll take a lot for them to come after him. He probably is getting away with fraud, and will commit more fraud, but he's perceived as a savior, climate change warrior, go to Mars visionary, rocket scientist who's saving this planet while colonizing another. People , and governments, love to give him money.

The decision to ever prosecute him in a meaningful way, which will mean the demise of Tesla & probably SpaceX, will be incredibly unpopular, and not good for anyone's career. Yes , I know he's been prosecuted recently but look how that's panned out.There isn't any other businessman able to get away with what Musk will be allowed.

Even if he "bends the rules" he's going to be given a pass, or a slap on the wrist, because he is in fact building cars in America, building rockets, and building a cult. It isn't at all like going after Madoff, Shkrelli, or Keating. Activists are going to be pissed if they go after Musk. Just look at the reaction in this thread when you go after Musk.

Pathetic. Salt. Pathetic.

The love for Teslas is single handedly putting pressure on luxury NYC buildings to put super chargers into their parking lots. I have literally not seen a single non-Tesla using the chargers.

After my building puts more chargers in so there isn’t a huge waiting list for those spots, I am probably getting the first Tesla with over ~450 miles range.

That’s roughly round trip between DC and NYC in case you’re wondering. That’s about as far as I will ever drive without getting on a plane.

Guys, self driving was fully functional up to that 95% that TS referenced well over a decade ago by college students using a few hours a week in an elective class. It's remarkably simple software to tell to a car to go in a certain direction and if you detect something along the way to avoid it.

The difficulty lays in not detecting and moving but interpreting the perfect response, which is a very serious matter considering lives are on the line.

TS may be a dick, but don't just poo poo anything he says when you have absolutely no basis for refuting the claim besides that you don't like him and you're ignorant on the topic and can't bother fact checking.

This thread is aids until you guys can put down all your petty arguments because everyone comes off as pathetic here.

450 would be nice, but honestly not necessary. You most likely waste more time messing around on your phone every day than it takes to charge a Model 3 to max 310 miles at a supercharger... if you have to charge on a road trip, you just build in that 20-40 minutes to eat and use the restroom, etc.

Also, how many road trips do you take in a year, or for the life if the car?

(And environmentally speaking, taking a train is a good option)

Oh I totally recognize, intellectually, 450 is probably unnecessary but like I said before, that’s about what people (including myself) expect out of a tank of gas. People don’t (at least I don’t) like to plan their trips around 5 minute gas pit stops even with gas stations everywhere. They aren’t going to want to plan their trips around 15-30 minute pit stops with charging stations with limited availability.

1. Tesla goes below $250: 20% (not confident, would be a huge drop, but stock price has been increasingly volatile)

2. Tesla goes above $560: 60%

3. Musk is charged with a criminal offense related to Tesla or Solarcity : charged: <5%; conviction < 0.1% *

* assume we are talking about conduct to date, not future conduct

** Merry Xmas

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-german-rivals

$425. Germany secured. Pending approval by Tesla. Target 500k production per year.

Someone at the tables intentionally timed out every hand out of pure hatred of me once. I think I stacked him or sucked out or sth. I dunno, not important...

He thought he was trolling/wasting my time doing so, for hours on end, just to piss me off. Obviously this person is an idiot and after initially seeing what he was doing I barely even noticed. He is just some fish playing one table lost in his own ignorance, anger, and misery. I was busy playing 9-18 tables jamming out to music without a care in the world

The point is people are petty and it seems to be a common trait to be willing to waste their own time and energy, and misguided anger, ignorance, and misery, on others who are going to do their own thing whether they like it or not. I mean look at Kelvis. What is the point of any of those posts? If I was a Tesla megabull and confident about my bets on it, then why would I waste any time or energy making dozens of posts about salt? Regardless of what TS does or does not deserve, those posts are pure noise and the poster is purely wasting his own time. It's a form of life tilt, and a lot of posters on 22 not only don't realize it, they dwell in it. Even TS is a victim of this, whining about turtletom to the mods. That's petty too. I find value in his posts, but it's hard to take him seriously, constantly invoking intellectual superiority, yet being incapable of just putting the idiot on ignore...

Don't waste your time with people who clearly aren't interested in changing or being better as a perpetual mode of existence. Just put them on ignore and let them wallow in their own swine