hm... I don't know about 1000 but I felt the money line for 4 years moved to right about 900 (roughly 20% CAGR) when Shanghai began production and it became apparent Musk, somehow, got the full support of CCP brass.

Why did that factory move the needle so much? It's because now Musk can just increase production in China with cheap money from Chinese state-owned banks (the Shanghai factory is basically entirely debt-financed by Chinese state-owned banks with pretty sweet terms).

With rest of the firm already cash positive, or at least very close to it, the only big cash drain is going to be the European factory. And, with China ramping up, the European factory can just be dialed back if necessary. I actually think it is likely Musk will play Europeans and Chinese against each other and basically get them to finance Tesla's expansion in China and Europe.

I just think that if you have 10k its a safe bet to put it in TSLA and think yu ll get really good returns 2-5 years from now pretty easily. i didn teve think about china tbh

If the US auto market suffers a cyclical decline over the next two years, does that make you less bullish? Tesla is highly indebted and if they ever lose financing then I can see the whole house if cards coming down. Your point about China is an interesting one. Do you think he can now get all the money he needs from China for the whole business moving forward?

Short of a major economic downturn, I don't think the fortunes of the auto industry itself are that meaningful to Tesla.

EVs really aren't competing directly with ICEs yet. The range issue alone segments the EV market from the rest of the auto market.

And yes, I do think he can get a lot more money out of China. The Chinese government now has billions tied to that factory. Even in pessimistic cases, the Chinese government will likely throw good money after bad in hopes of making Tesla Gigafactory work.

that's an awesome bit to have in your investment thesis for a $65b company. love it.

Really? Literally the first decision my wife and I made when we needed to buy a new car was if we were going to go EV, EV-Hybrid, or ICE. There's a whole lot of people that first decide they want/need a new car, then decide on what it is. Maybe you can make the argument that some cars (like Tesla) will move people to buy a car before they otherwise would have - but I don't think it's that significant.

When has the Chinese government ever favored a foreign company this way? If things go sour, why wouldn't they just make it work in a way that hurts Tesla? Like force them to spin off and sell their chinese investments at a discount to businesses more directly connected to the higher ups in the party?

You think a CEO that wouldn't settle for a few 100k is going to let the Chinese government have their way? A guy that told the SEC to go **** itself.

It doesn't matter if they are competing or not - why wouldn't a cyclical downturn that affects the rest of the auto industry also affect Tesla? To the extent there's market segmentation, it would seem that Tesla would be even disproportionately affected, since they tend to sell expensive luxury vehicles that are more likely to be a discretionary purchase.

Ok guys everybody sell sell sell, turns out in the US there is a 7 week delivery time

That can only mean Freemont is slowing down production

I'm not sure if you're serious or joking. The Chinese government of course is going to have their way and I can't imagine what leverage Musk would have in this situation. Keep in mind that Musk also instantly capitulated to the SEC by agreeing to a huge fine the first time, and then agreeing to a more strict set of restrictions the second time. And the SEC is just a collection of overworked, settlement-happy bureaucrats who have nothing to gain personally from going after Musk and have no real power besides being a mechanism for enforcing the regulations.

Capitulated the first time? Are your for real? I was practically begging for him for him to take a deal when insiders told he was going to fight the SEC at all cost. You're joking by the way, the difference is I don't need to ask.

What on earth are you even talking about? The SEC is entirely indifferent to the fortunes of Musk - they don't get to take the fines and personally enrich themselves. They are just trying to make sure he is appropriately punished - the moment they charged Musk (9/27), he capitulated within 2 days (9/29). From the perspective of Musk, there was no need for any of this to happen, he lost a bunch of things for absolutely no reason and did what he had to do to escape further legal trouble.

I have literally no idea why anyone would think this moment of pure idiocy bodes well for him dealing with the Chinese government. The Chinese government doesn't have to offer a deal, party members can benefit personally from capriciously punishing Musk as long as justifications are vaguely reasonable and don't have any risk of being caught in drawn-out court battles or even losing in court through technicalities. They are the law.

ok

No Western company has ever had a bad China experience ever! Never happens that they just give you a carrot and hide their true intentions!

Not saying this is what's happening, but every bull itt who acts as if they can 100% predict what this China thing will mean for Tesla, is just naive. The scenarios range from Tesla becoming a major brand in China to China just allowing the factory to be built to be able to steal technology easier, and then rip them off. Nobody knows. I'd point to Musk not being the guy I'd want in charge when making a deal with the Chinese, but that's subjective.

This really is just a terrible post.
Range anxiety is just a factor when buying a car, but it doesn't create 2 entirely different segments.

Your thesis also neglects to highlight that Tesla's valuation is not only dependent on them not running into any refinancing issues, but also executing very strongly in the next 10 years. In 5 years, differences between EVs and ICEs will be significantly smaller and the market will be crowded with EV options from all major brands.

$200 off the June lows (+113%) & 2% from the ATH. Who knew that praying for an Enron, calling Elon a fraud and parking lot reports weren't a solid investment strategy? I'm sure this will mark a short term top but oh well, TSLAq is the gift that keeps on giving. Amazing community.

And massively underperforming the market still since the last batch of euphoria.
Um, the last two were a solid investment strategy. It's right here in the history of this thread. I recommended short at $300 on parking lot demand death/Elon's fraud and liked covering/long at $190 on the clear end of demand death, of which there were multiple pieces of data while the price was at lows. Fundamental data driven analysis has done very well on this stock.

You're sure of that?
Why didn't you post this at $190? Why didn't you post at $190 that "Tesla bulls are the gift that keeps on giving" after it had dropped 50%? I'll tell you why - because you don't feel threatened intellectually by the bulls, whereas you do by the bears.

You can always tell the losers/losing traders/fish because they think a particular result in poker/price action in the market proves a particular analysis was right or wrong. There is no mention of fundamentals in your post (they've turned around strongly) and there is no mention of anything relevant. It's just pure silly snark from a silly poster. I honestly think you're just really insecure about intelligent people - TSLAQ are intelligent, but they have the same flaw as the bulls of seeing price action as confirming their thesis too much. I've argued with bears as a result to cover/get long at times.

Today was worth over 250% on calls on the amazing news this morning. Anyone who's always long or always short on this name isn't doing analysis well.

You mad bro? Heh so awesome.

Really? You get "mad" from my post? You're as bad at reading people as you at analyzing the market. Like I said:
And why on Earth would I be mad? I'm thrilled at this outcome and bought calls this morning. Tesla at highs means I get at least another year of incredible trade opportunities. Insane clowns short and hold and then cover at max pain; insane clowns long and hold on Elon frauds and sell at max pain...it's like a table full of fish, and fish means dollars. I've been happy about Tesla since demand death turned around. Tesla dying would mean that my most profitable stock is gone and I have to actually have some skill to make nice money. I've never found any stock as much pure free money as Tesla.

I'm sure you bought calls.

Gun shops must be having a great day.

i expect sales numbers and q4 to be good.
if nothing changes, i'll be buying some late 2021 puts after earnings.

Maybe I should have explained more.

Range anxiety changes the ownership so dramatically currently that Tesla's customer base is almost entirely of people who are already strongly predisposed to buying an EV.

That group also happens to strongly lean upper middle income class that are typically more insulated from overall economic downturns.

You would have too if you were intelligent enough to look at something other than lines on charts, it was easy money. You don't even know what happened this morning, do you? You just saw it high in your charts and came to post some snark. Do you even trade, bro?

Anyway, the news that ripped it as excited bulls piled in on a potential 600K car tax credit now seems to have a very low percentage chance of happening given that Trump has said he'll veto and is strongly against it. It's unlikely to be attached as a rider soon apparently and couldn't stand on its own as of now. So it should give back a bit more yet from here at $375