You sound like a real hoot. Teachers like you were a cinch to get an A from, just tell them what they want to hear in the way they want hear it. Also, you being a former teacher makes so much sense.

Completely agree about China's efforts here and if you had less of a fragile ego (you put me on ignore after you looked silly making some ridiculous claims, not because of "walls of text" which I had for years without ignore -at least be honest with yourself) you wouldn't be wasting people's time arguing for something that already been said by you before and agreed by me. The point is conceded. You'd get an F in your own class.

We could be arguing actual numbers here rather than you talking to yourself, but overprecious didacts like yourself can't have your poor reasoning shown up, it hurts your ego too much.

If you are willing to have a conversation/stop being a worthless poster, for what do you think that Tesla will make 400K+ a year in Shanghai next year? And where will they sell them? Most analysts, even the bulls, are FAR less optimistic than even 200K/year in China, because they understand the auto business. So what reasoning do you have other than "China, bro!"

Adding more short, cost basis now $340. Just going to hold this core short to zero.

What odds do you give of zero? They survived so far

- Massive securities and taxpayer fraud (several of these, consequences avoided so far by corrupt/paid off officials)
- Total incompetence in manufacturing and leadership where the CEO has an 11 year old's visions of full robotics that no sane person, let a lone a CEO, let along a car company CEO, would try
- A ramp up of production from smaller scale high priced hand made to semi-automated lines at lower prices
- A cash crunch and investor confidence hit
- Cycles of terrible demand

In their corner now they've got a China factory paid for without any of their own money, starting meaningful production in 6-9 months.

As long as Musk can keep the confidence game going of people thinking he's a genius/not a fraud and giving him endless money despite comical constant failure and loss, it keeps going. There really is no business problem that can't be solved with access to endless capital, no incompetence or stupidity a business can't survive while it has constant inflowing capital.

Looking back at the great frauds, how long did Enron, Madoff and Crazy Eddie survive after the fraud started? We live in a Theranos/WeWork world of easy capital and zero due diligence.

My underlying assumption is that confidence games eventually end and there isn't infinite money to subsidize endless losses. So I don't know when, but it is most likely when capital becomes tight again, which should eventually happen.

Although I will concede that this goes out the window if/when QE infinity causes hyperinflation.

So lets say the probability of it going to zero is 1-x where x is the probability of massive hyperinflation of the U.S.

So what is your take on the following events?

- They survived the most dangerous period (with massive fraud, and barely even with that, but they survived) going from expensive prototypes to middle-class-affordable mass-produced?
- The Chinese building a factory for them?
- Their credit rating recently going from B-/negative outlook to B-/positive outlook at Moodys?
- The fact that they're the current halo leader in a rapidly growing industry (40%/year compounded)?
- Consumer Reports recently re-recommending the S&X as reliability has improved?

You don't see a change in the short thesis given these facts? This is a world apart from 1.5 years ago when Musk was going into a beta-panic spiral, begging, stealing and lying to pump his stock and keep the juice flowing while he puts up tent lines with his last money?

However you slice it they seem past this stage. And past demand death. How is the short thesis as strong in this world vs in that one? I can see scenarios where they survive now. You can't?

At the end of the day it is a structurally unprofitable car manufacturer operating in a space in which other car manufacturers are losing money because they are building the EV cars only for compliance purposes (with the exception of the Mach-E apparently), has 11b in debt due over the next three years and no meaningful way to pay it down other than to issue more converts and roll them forward. That will ultimately be their undoing in a recession if you look at the list of companies that chronically issued convertibles in the past. Making more cars and selling them at losses just hastens the process.

IMO, everything else is just noise. Even if Elon steps down and they get a new wizard CEO from the industry who tries to turn this flaming garbage pile around, the first thing the new CEO would do is to restructure the company and toss it into Chapter 11.

EDIT: and if by some miracle of God (<1%) they manage to make the Q3 earnings a consistent thing and assume we triple the profits per quarter, with flat revenues they will be revalued as a car company with a PE of 6 entering into a recession.

Also, there is one aspect in which Spurious turned out to be partially right and I was wrong about. Elon will never allow an equity raise of any meaningful size as he needs the float to be as tight and small as possible to control the share price and burn shorty. Kimbal and Rive have margin calls in the high $160s to low $170s, and Elon is probably not too far from that. So the share price must be defended at all costs around that range.

Hence the rolling converts.

wtf even is this. Not sure if ******ed or TSLA to $400 tomorrow

Elon has to be the worst presenter in the history of presenters. My 6 year old daughter would do a better job.

ETA: And that thing they rolled out on stage is idiotic. It looked like a prop from a high school production of Back to the Future.

What am I missing? I watched for 30 seconds and saw a quad roll in to the back. Realized my mouth was wide open. How many of these things are they hoping to sell?

Yeah....who exactly is the target buyer for this thing? Californian SWPL?

I thought it was a joke and he would have the real thing come on stage after this. Real curious what the stock will do tomorrow.

Holy ****. The clown is having a full mental breakdown.


"I would never commit massive securities fraud your honor! Also, do you like my truck?"

Needs some text for the full glory:





IMO the yellow proves that those liking Musk/Tesla aren't in some crazy loser cult.

lol Elon is the man, succeed or fail I can't wait to read the book in 20 years

That truck and ATV are net negatives on TSLA financials because Musk, like he did with Model 3, will cannibalize production capacity on models (including 3 that he finally got to a at least close to breakeven) to produce the new models.

I actually think the trucks will sell well. 500 miles range is a big deal. It makes it viable for business owners to opt for the truck instead of something like F-150 and save 2-4K a year in fuel costs. It’s still probably a niche product but I am pretty there is a demand for it.

What if Vern Unsworth was the hero who brings down Musk? This is freaking hilarious:

Elon Musk Scorns Caver for Prying Into His Finances as Trial Looms
Elon Musk has to be seriously mentally ill, not to mention a giant piece of ****, to not simply settle this case after very publicly and completely falsely defaming this guy as a pedophile. I can't imagine how insane you'd have to be to not put this to bed ages ago. What else would someone with such an insane ego, who's committed multiple major known proven frauds across the entire spectrum, do?

Do we want to bet he's squeaky clean in reporting Tesla financials (after the entire accounting team quit and they wrote in-house accounting and ERP software)?
Do we want to bet the deliveries are real and there's no self-dealing to pump the numbers going on with all this easy money floating around? They just scraped in for a beat last quarter.

How do you manage to be wrong on absolutely everything you post, and even go one level further on some of your analsis and be so wrong you're not even wrong?

No, the Model 3 didn't "cannibalize production capacity" on the S/X. What the actual ****? Demand was what was cannabilized. This was why they dropped prices on the S/X $40K overnight as demand died early this year. That's why there are no wait times ordering these cars.

Why is it so hard for you to think rationally and understand basic concepts like how price and wait times relate to demand? It's weird.
Are you talking about some truck not pictured above?

What do you think the odds are that if this "truck" goes into production it's range will actually be 500 miles?

It has as much of a 500 mile range as it has bullet (or anything-)proof glass obv

As long as your assailants come at you with nothing bigger than 9mms and smallish rocks, you should be fine though.

I am mostly out of Tesla after Q3 (taking a fairly large loss overall admittedly)


but holy **** was the Cybertruck a disaster, at the same time, if it ever existed, and i was ridiculously rich, i might buy one for the pure absurdity of it. Think about having one of these disasters 30 years from now?

Just to be clear, they called the windows "clear metal"


it looks a lot like glass when it breaks