Kelvis is a rabid Musk fanboy who got his ass handed to him when he believed $420 "funding secured". Now that it's only at -7% instead of -50% since then (in a market up 30% in that time and tech up even more), he's coming out the woodwork feeling vindicated (he disappeared as the stock cratered, as did all the bulls)), and likely sold in despair.

Such people are standard fare in penny and fraud stocks. They see a price move as validation of their thesis. The bears have the same flaw (I argued black and blue with bears to cover at $190, they didn't listen), but not as bad. It's why Musk does all the fraudulent pumping he does - it's a confidence game where the stock price is the product.

We saw this all play out in Q3 2018 as well after they pulled a totally fake profitable quarter (manufactured by supplier rebates and inventory rebates) and Musk fraudulent prediction of "profitable all quarters going forward, before it all crashed in Q1 2019.

Hilariously, despite his sarcarsm he's actually right in this:
They're 6+ months away from any meaningful production levels; at present the talk of imminent volume production is more Musk bullshit and pumping, on par with "5000 M3/week by the end of 2017" (actual: 100).

China is definitely a positive wildcard in the equation. If it fails to get meaningful sales in China (well over 30% likely with the nature of the Chinese market) it will be a very negative wildcard. My model has China contributing $44 average to the stock price by the end of 2020 once production actually starts getting some volume in it, which won't be until the second half of 2020.

Oh you know my trades now. Let's do this, if you correctly guess my average cost basis I give you $3. That should be enough for your next trade.

The fact that you disappear when the stock tanks and come back like a vindicated penny stock follower (with sarcasm and all) only after it goes back up says everything that needs to be said.

As does your mega-pissed-off reaction after funding secured turned out not to be real.

You know what's strange? None of the bulls were suggesting it's a great place to load up at $190, that it's a buying opportunity. The only person suggesting that (in fact, arguing for it) was myself.

You're basically Mark Spiegel of 2+2. Your obnoxious personality makes me check out quickly, and it won't be long until I am gone again. But you can draw any conclusion you like.

Since you don't even want to take a shot at my cost average, I am willing to send you the $3 anyways to write it off as charity. Maybe you can buy some friends with it. For what it's worth, I think you know you have no shot at guessing correctly so avoiding it all together is probably the smartest thing to do.

Oh, and don't forget the competition is coming!

I never understand these haters that come out of the woodwork. I made $ opening a short in the 300s and closing in the 200s based off of TS' analysis and posts in this thread. He's actually got it right way more than not (including this time) and somehow this pisses off a select bunch of people. If you're one of these people, try doing some introspection on why this seemingly triggers you so badly.

And to go a step further: Do I think I'm entitled to this (results)? No, but I read his analysis and made a decision to follow it and it worked out for me. And if I lost $ on these trades I wouldn't have any salt either -- it is what it is -- and I appreciate the insights he shares freely so why don't we all make a social pact to try and act like adults here and have actual discussions.

Won't be long until you're gone? Cool story bro. Don't let the door hit you on the way out. Your posts are complete noise & add nothing to the discussion.

Who are you?

I follow evidence and reason, not "stock price bro!", which is why I liked sellling at $360 on funding secured and buying at $190 as the demand picture was clearly turning from death to good-enough sales. Evidence and reason applied to your responses here indicates my take is correct.

Yes, it certainly is. That's the whole point, ultimately. Competition - even minor, half assed competition - is why Tesla lost a billion dollars this year despite cutting spending to the bone. Give someone $10 billion to burn to create a luxury niche monopoly (because no one else is willing to burn $10 billion on fire for no good reason), and sales will soar in any industry. It was Musk's business model in Solarcity (bankrupt without a fraudulent bailout) and now Tesla. It's when the competition comes or the easy capital disappears that the rubber hits the road. And Musk is great at convincing people to give him capital, often using pure lies and fraud (Solar Roofs ready for production 2016, 1 million 2020 FSD robotaxis, 5000/week by the end of 2017, etc).

Paid Actor?

Kazuya is a legend on here dude, check out this post the week crypto topped...

What a shame we weren't blessed with that 2019 write up...

Actually I did do write it up, go check the ETH thread. I showed up at the absolute bottom -- and got a bunch of haters for being completely authentic and real in it -- but I did some final posts on this front before swearing off commenting again due to everyone being miserable bags of ****.

If you go want to go read them (2019 posts) closely I told people they're morons for thinking crypto is dead, called it the near bottom (or close to bottom) within a week of the actual bottom, and even went on the record and said I was buying more when everyone was capitulating (just read the posts at the time for sentiment) & last piece of advice I gave was to DCA/majorly lump sum now in Dec 2018 to someone who asked because as it'll likely be better price wise than most of 2019. In fact I just checked I said at these prices [dec 2018 post] I would have 30-70% of my net worth in crypto -- so yeah don't feel too bad for me. Here's one last piece of investing wisdom for these assets: As soon as losers like yourself show up and start to parade they're dead, you're likely near a local bottom.

TL;DR - Trying to hijack thread to talk **** (yet not ever posting your own predictions/forecasts). Realize if you bought then you would have at minimum doubled your $ in the last year. Further ignores the fact the first post I made about crypto and telling people to go long you would still have 5x'd+ your money in the last 3.5 years.

Also PS - Not commenting on crypto anymore in these forums and will reframe from commenting on present day outlook on what I think is happening because I get absolutely zero joy sharing any knowledge on these assets due to all the toxicity from certain posters. People like yourself is why public discussions break down and why we can't have nice things. And lastly: this is the TSLA thread not Ethereum/BTC so yeah if you want to slam crypto try engaging with different posters in other threads, I'm sure others might waste their time engaging with you because I have zero desire to prove anything more on this front.

Calls people morons for thinking something, gets triggered by "toxicity".

You all take everything way too personal. I can't imagine emotional wrecks making money investing, but it has been a 10 year bull market.

@Kazuya, dont listen to the haters or those who are too scared to put their own skin in the game or front up opinions, this forum is at its best when there is robust debate and people owning their predictions.

Where do you see $TSLA going from here? Do you still see a bear case?

Trolling TS is fun and he has serious leaks but he does provide some useful insight and info too imo. He was smart enough to sit out on the last earnings call. I do dispute his track record though. I do not see that he has been advocating long since $190, it seems more like he chooses the local minima and retrospectively claims to have nailed it at that exact moment. Maybe he says things in private chats that he does not post here thought, idk.

I'll be the first to claim I don't have a strongly held opinion on Tesla. I just don't have the bandwidth (or motivation) to go deeply into it right now.

If anything before entering this thread I was leaning slight bullish on Tesla, but without any strong conviction attached to that view. Another way of saying this is I was open to consideration and was slight bias towards bull. Like I know enough to know I didn't do much original research on it but it's an interesting stock to read up and I've always been curious about it and never really dug deeper than any bloomberg article.

After catching up in the thread+some of my own research I leaned much more bearish -- basically because from my perspective the analysis (mostly led by TS) made me lean more bearish due to points XYZ that no one seemed to be able to rebuff so I updated my view on it. If one were to read this thread honestly, it seems 95% of the people that attack him are attacking him personally or his posting style on some sort of emotional charge because they can't really sharpen their points and attack his arguments directly. That or their arguments seemed to be clearly made in bad-faith or a combination of intellectually lazy and/or straw-men. Plus if the bulls really believed their words, I don't see them posting their longs and positions (as far as I can tell) If I genuinely thought the bulls mostly through 2018-2019 had good merit I would have never opened any short. Once again that's just how I read this thread, others may see it differently.

To summarize no one should put any weight really into what I have to really say about this stock simply because I don't even have enough conviction to back it up with my own $ exposure to it this minute, and 2 because I only went short because I read both sides of an argument and agreed with the bear thesis at the time so I'd be talking out of my ass. What the future holds I don't know, I'll adjust it based on data as it rolls in. The tl;dr is I basically trust my own judgment on evaluating information presented and that's what I rolled with. I don't really have any predictions or insightful analysis to move forward with except +1'ing for the most part that it seems underneath the PR/marketing it's seems quite likely it's a **** show.

Many months ago there was a lot made of how many model 3s/week tesla was making. Haven't heard anyone talk about this number recently. How many are they making now?

I think about 3.50 per

They've been at about 30k cars a month since the first month or two after Model 3 reached first customers. The next jump in production is China factory before EOY (supposedly) but, if Musk's history with deadlines is any guide, we probably won't see significant volumes out of China Gigafactory until early 2020.

Shanghai is already producing beta vehicles and I expect it will ramp up fast to full production. German factory prob starts shipping cars by end of 2021.

I am skeptical of Musk timelines in general, but more so in relation to R&D and developing new technologies, this is just replicating/scaling something that is proven and built at scale in the US already.

on the other hand early 2020 is 45 days away

45 to 135 days all qualify as early next year I think.

I am basically going by 6 months late. Tesla was saying 500k annualized by EOY, implying a little over 10k at Chinese plant. I figure it's pretty good if they get half of that by end of Q1. If they get all that by end of Q2, that's basically on-Tesla-time.

It's worth noting that Tesla has managed to get the Chinese government on board with money and state support. Tesla basically invested none of its own cash on hand to finance the factory. The Shanghai factory is essentially 100% financed by state owned banks. It's now a matter of face for Shanghai, CCP, and Beijing for Tesla to succeed in China. That is a remarkable achievement, and consistent with Musk's history of wooing government actors.

That's the Foxconn playbook by the way. A Taiwanese company was able to become one of the biggest electronics manufacturers in China basically by being politically adroit enough to give local governments a cut of the profits.

You're getting bullshitted again. My God man, didn't someone say you were a lawyer? I mean, I've known plenty of dumb lawyers (always on the other side of the table from me), but most of them aren't this naive. They have the unhappy job of dealing with bullshit all day, so they tend to be a little less naive about bullshitters than say, techie Musk fans.

They're not making 500K car run rate at the end of 2020. WTF. They also can't have any meaningful production before Q2 next year. It's pure bullshit pumping as bad as "5000/week by the end of 2017" and "10,000/week by the end of 2018". Car production lines just don't go up that fast, even when done by people far more competent than Musk (which is nearly everyone who makes cars). For a long time it will be assembly of shipped over parts.

Musk is one of the greatest taxpayer money hustlers of all time, no doubt about it. And I totally agree about the Chinese wanting a good show of the flagship. It's all about managerial competence and sales though, and Tesla have been demand limited for a long time (hence why they dropped prices), and very incompetent mangerially.

TS is one of only two people on my 2p2 ignore list and I can still respond.

If you don’t think Tesla can achieve 500k annual run rate by end of 2020, you need to buy puts.

And since better than 50/50 he’s still on about demand cliff... Tesla still has waiting lists and, by standards of the auto industry, Tesla’s inventories are low and not really seen outside of models meant to be collectibles. That’s not even counting what I see anecdotally on WeChat with people paying 2 or 3x sticker to get Teslas imported into China. (Note this isn’t the same as saying people will pay 2-3x long term. A big part of the premium now is for people who want to show off.)

lol
why are shareholders going to care all of a sudden?

they just manufactured a green quarter out of thin air and accounting shenanigans and except for a few 100 people on the planet, who actually read and understand their 10qs, everyone ate it up - no questions asked.

we will be here, next year, maybe at $200, maybe at $350 or $450, just like the last 5 years.
waiting for the next big thing and profits will be just one quarter and a tiny capital raise away, just like the last 5 years.
and people are going to give him their money, just like the last 5 years.

Yeah I'd pretend I was on my ignore list if I got owned so hard, just so I don't have to respond.

This is an absolutely ridiculous take. Analysts have anything over 150K in 2021 as bullish. You're saying we should buy puts if Tesla is annualizing only 400K cars in China by the end 2020 + 400K in the US? LOL?

Nope, swing and a miss
You can have a Tesla anywhere in the world in a few weeks. That's zero backlog, not "waiting lists".
What you see anecdotally on Wechat? lol? Why was Tesla dropping prices in China if people are willing to pay 2-3x the sticker price? Do you have a single functioning brain cell?

Why are they way under production of the S/X (they can't sell them anywhere near previous year volumes even after massive price cuts) if China has people willing to pay 2-3x the sticker price?

Thanks for the ridiculous take on several different levels. Keep em coming.

Now to respond blindly to TS again. He likely has something along the lines that I have him on ignore because he's owning me. I actually have him on ignore because his walls of text are the sort of thing I used to give students Ds for some combination of not answering the question and rejecting fact pattern as given.

He's probably still insisting 500k by end of 2020 is ludicrous or something along those lines. I'll grant 500k by end of 2020 is probably optimistic and toward upper end of reasonable expectations but you're thinking Wall Street is stupid if you think they aren't expecting 400k+ (40-50k out of China) by mid 2020 given what we already know about Tesla's situation in China.

It's not normal for China to grant a foreign company 100% ownership of a local factory. It's not normal for China to almost 100% debt finance a foreign company with debt. It's not normal for China to waive purchase tax for any company, much less a foreign company. It's not normal for a foreign company to line up pretty much every major state-owned enterprise involved in battery production in the province. And it's definitely not normal for Li Keqiang (Xi Jiping's right hand man and heir apparent) to be personally involved in building a foreign factory. It's not normal for the CEO of a company to be treated like a foreign dignitary by the Chinese government.

CCP isn't doing all of that for some piddly annual production of 50k.

PS: I threw 500k and buy put line out there knowing TS would bite. I actually think the money line for EOY 2020 is more like about 470k or so where Shanghai hits some kind of snag when it gets to about 8k a week. The 8k a week is upper end of what Tesla says it's aiming for by EOY... 2019.