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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

11-06-2019 , 06:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CNBC
  • Walmart and Tesla have settled a lawsuit that the retailer had filed against Elon Musk’s renewable energy business in August.
  • After seven of Tesla’s solar rooftop installations caught fire atop the retail giant’s stores, Walmart accused Tesla of negligence and asked it to shoulder the costs of removing its solar rooftops from more than 240 stores.
  • Walmart and Tesla said today, in a joint statement, that they look forward to “a safe re-energization of our sustainable energy systems,” instead.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/05/tesl...top-fires.html
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-06-2019 , 07:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Yeah, Europe has never had a month with sales as low as October - it's half their worst quarter.

My theory is they timed the shipping to desperately manufacture a small beat on deliveries, cutting off EU shipping that wouldn't make the delivery date and pumping the rest out in NA which they could deliver immediately. Their inventory went down despite a much higher EU/foreign market mix YoY (US was down 30%), which supports that theory pretty well.

At the same time they hit up suppliers/Panasonic and did other one-time tricks to manufacture a fake profit, which they desperately needed at $240. Had they missed at say 93K cars (because a ship was on its way to Europe), or missed on profit, the stock would have tanked.

Musk is a pretty talented money hustler and stock pumper. And considering the utter **** he has to work with (Tesla), it's even more impressive.
Every beginning of the quarter the same ****ing thing. When do you learn from your mistakes?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-06-2019 , 07:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spurious
Every beginning of the quarter the same ****ing thing. When do you learn from your mistakes?
Oh great, the thread clown returns. It's not like prior quarters at all. Can you even read?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Yeah, Europe has never had a month with sales as low as October - it's half their worst quarter.
Do you know what "worst" means? Do you know what "half" means? No, it's not the same "every ****ing quarter". The point is not that it's low (it's always low in the first month of the quarter), it's that it's a lot lower than usual, which is very odd given that they claimed a high number of orders at end of quarter, and also just barely scraped in to beating the prior quarter.

Here it is in a screenshot, with prior first-month-of-quarter highlighted, that even your bong-addled mind can understand:




It's their worst month ever in every single category. It's less than half of their previous worst month. This is not what you expect to see in a growing company doing business normally (as opposed to manufacturing a fake delivery beat and profit that they just scraped into by not putting cars on ships and unsustainably drawing down inventory)

As for "learning from my mistakes", I've correctly predicted both demand death and demand recovery all year, and the appropriate trading to do as a result.

You're vying for dumbass response of the year so far, from a very rich field.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-06-2019 , 07:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Do you have any idea how much property Enron owned? Or PCG? Enron had $60 billion in assets on the books, didn't stop them being a zero.
Do you know what the terms: assets, liabilities, revenue, costs and profit mean?

This must be one of the dumbest posts in relation to Tesla ever.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Who would buy Tesla? What would for example VW gain from buying Tesla? An antiquated factory in high-wage Calfornia with pathetic throughput. A battery factory that Panasonic owns. The FSD is worth <$0 given the severance required to shut it down. What exactly are they buying?
I doubt anyone could afford Tesla, but a brand like Tesla would definitely be appealing for someone like VW, just like they have Audi, Porsche, Lamborghini and Bugatti today which have nothing to do with their core brand and share hardly any platform.

In any case, Tesla is way too expensive for most companies and VW is building out strongly at the moment. They have no immediate need for Tesla. There will be a Chinese company or a large tech company to buy Tesla if needed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
For VW for example, they spent $6 billion on their electrification strategy, using the Taycan as a testbed, and it kicks the **** out of Tesla with a much higher voltage meaning faster charging, no overheating, future proofing and far better sustained performance. The 2020 VW ID.3 with Model 3 superior range at <30K euro is also starting production today. What on Earth do they have to gain from Tesla?

VW sees Tesla as the competition. VW has massive respect for Tesla. The Taycan loses to the future Model S, but they have genuine respect for each other.

I love the fact that you say test bed when I schooled you on this stuff before. The Taycan is completely Porsche made, has nothing to do with the rest of VW. The electric building block system that VW has developed is completely different from the Taycan.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjshabado
The most irritating part about TS (and there's a lot there) is the reactions he generates in other people. Like, holy ****, people go crazy.

I think TS is wrong on a bunch of things, but he's rarely wrong on factual things or the logical arguments around those factual things. His issue is usually ignoring/being ignorant of other evidence (by the way, this goes for lots of smart people). Like his arguments on TSLA seem pretty solid and rationale. If he ends up being wrong about it (not talking about a results-oriented meaning of 'wrong') it's almost certainly because he missed / ignored / didn't properly weight some other factor(s).

So if you're trying to argue with him about really simplistically obvious ****, you've probably already lost.
I am always flabbergasted at responses like those. TS is wrong about 70% of the things he says. Of 50% of those things, he is straight up lying.
If he ends up being wrong, he will be wrong, because he has a basic knowledge flaw like the one above.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-06-2019 , 07:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spurious
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Do you have any idea how much property Enron owned? Or PCG? Enron had $60 billion in assets on the books, didn't stop them being a zero.
Do you know what the terms: assets, liabilities, revenue, costs and profit mean? This must be one of the dumbest posts in relation to Tesla ever.
How much are you going to own yourself today with angry, drug-addled posts which hilariously miss the point? I mean thanks for the comedy, but put down the drugs son and get some fresh air, for your own sake.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spurious
Quote:
For VW for example, they spent $6 billion on their electrification strategy, using the Taycan as a testbed, and it kicks the **** out of Tesla with a much higher voltage meaning faster charging, no overheating, future proofing and far better sustained performance. The 2020 VW ID.3 with Model 3 superior range at <30K euro is also starting production today. What on Earth do they have to gain from Tesla?
I love the fact that you say test bed when I schooled you on this stuff before. The Taycan is completely Porsche made, has nothing to do with the rest of VW. The electric building block system that VW has developed is completely different from the Taycan.
Clown says what? How do manage to be wrong on everything you post? It's quite a gift. The Taycan was indeed the testbed for their electrification, and contrary to your assertion that it has "nothing to do with the rest of VW", the J1 Platform and batteries that the Taycan uses is going into the Audi (owned by VW) Etron variants, and other cars as well.

Audi e-tron GT and Porsche Taycan Are More Alike Than You'd Expect

Quote:
To minimize overlap and consolidate costs, Audi chose to work in unison with its cousin Porsche early on. Specifically, the two share the basic platform, dubbed J1 in early Porsche internal parlance, that 96.0-kWh lithium-ion battery pack, two electric motors, and numerous chassis components. But it was more than just a hardware exchange; teams of engineers held meetings every three months to discuss the progress of the vehicles, share development
The money spent on Taycan was part of their electrification strategy, with the tech shared across the VW group. You're a complete moron with no clue at all what you're talking about.

Quote:
I am always flabbergasted at responses like those. TS is wrong about 70% of the things he says. Of 50% of those things, he is straight up lying.
If he ends up being wrong, he will be wrong, because he has a basic knowledge flaw like the one above.
Except I'm right and you're utterly delusional. You were also the raging angry dickhead who said I was "lying" that they dropped prices 40K euro overnight earlier this year (presaging demand death with the stock still high), attacking post after post even even as I presented evidence, until finally backing down when I laid it all out for you in black and white. As you say:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spurious
When do you learn from your mistakes?
You're gone in the head again, come back when you're sober.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 11-06-2019 at 08:10 AM.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-06-2019 , 08:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Clown says what? How do manage to be wrong on everything you post? It's quite a gift. The Taycan was indeed the testbed for their electrification, and contrary to your assertion that it has "nothing to do with the rest of VW", the J1 Platform and batteries that the Taycan uses is going into the Audi (owned by VW) Etron variants, and other cars as well.

Audi e-tron GT and Porsche Taycan Are More Alike Than You'd Expect


The money spent on Taycan was part of their electrification strategy, with the tech shared across the VW group. You're a complete moron with no clue at all what you're talking about.
Look, you manage to miss absolutely vital points. The e-tron GT (a future car that does not exist today) will be based on the Taycan platform. The current etron and the one coming soon are not based on that. It's simple stuff you don't understand. The GT is an expensive version of the etron. It is more or less irrelevant for the VW strategy.

Here again the link so can understand that the Taycan is neither a test bed nor the future platform: https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/...n-preis-daten/


Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Except I'm right and you're utterly delusional. You were also the raging angry dickhead who said I was "lying" that they dropped prices 40K euro overnight earlier this year (presaging demand death with the stock still high), attacking post after post even even as I presented evidence, until finally backing down when I laid it all out for you in black and white. As you say:

You're gone in the head again, come back when you're sober.
This was potentially the only thing you've been right about. But it was a single market.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-06-2019 , 03:59 PM
how often are they going to reveal that truck?
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-06-2019 , 04:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spurious
Look, you manage to miss absolutely vital points. The e-tron GT (a future car that does not exist today) will be based on the Taycan platform. The current etron and the one coming soon are not based on that. It's simple stuff you don't understand. The GT is an expensive version of the etron. It is more or less irrelevant for the VW strategy.

Here again the link so can understand that the Taycan is neither a test bed nor the future platform: https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/...n-preis-daten/
You're basically Karl Pilkington bro. You have a weird espitemology and can't put things together in a coherent way.

The whole point of the conversation which you dropped into was that companies like VW have no reason to buy Tesla - VW for example has Tesla-superior performance electric drives and batteries, something they did as a testbed in the Taycan and are sharing across their performance electric cars in the whole VW group. I mean, you claimed the $700 million they spent on the Taycan battery system, and I quote, has nothing to do with the rest of VW, showing how completely silly you are...both the technology, the platform and what's learned from building and testing it is obviously shared across the VW group. I proved exactly that by showing not just the testbed but the exact same batteries/frame is going into Audi's Etron GT, proving your statement categorically false, and yet you still double down. Sober up before you come back to the thread bro.
Quote:
This was potentially the only thing you've been right about. But it was a single market.
It wasn't a single market. Prices in multiple European markets were dropped 40K overnight, which was one data point from which I inferred demand death while the stock was still at $300 (before dropping to $180 as demand death bit, as predicted). Literally everything you've posted in this thread recently has been wrong. That's quite a feat; you normally only manage about 90% wrong.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-07-2019 , 09:12 AM
Ok boomer
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-08-2019 , 08:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
You have a weird espitemology and can't put things together in a coherent way.
...epistemology...

(unless it is a new word to describe the doctrine of hateful **** posting on internet forums)
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-10-2019 , 02:31 AM
that could be despacito's best post ever
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-10-2019 , 11:16 AM
Yeah kudos on that.

espitemology: The process by which one arrives at a version of truth colored by suspicion or hatred toward one's online opponent.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-11-2019 , 12:58 PM
With respect to some of you guys with long standing short positions, enjoying the TSLAq meltdowns going on this morning. Hilarious seeing those 82k $50 **** puts expiring this week (most of which were bought months ago and not sold to open) go worthless. Where is MrFeelNothin btw? I was told we should expect either bankruptcy or Elon gone by now...
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-12-2019 , 03:34 PM
Just curious, what ever happened with those lots in California that had 1,000s of model 3s sitting on them for no apparent reason about a year ago? Seems like it was a big deal for a while and then I didn't hear anything about it. Do they still exist? Did all the cars just gradually get removed and sold? Was there any explanation from Tesla?

Last year shorting at 350 and covering at 300 served me well, so I got back in short around 320 and added at 340. But all the news and mojo seems positive lately. With the truck reveal and China factory opening I don't really see what is going to cause the stock to drop anytime soon.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-12-2019 , 03:52 PM
shorts are doomed, just look at this dude:



TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-12-2019 , 03:54 PM
Agreed about positivity, right after they beat at $280 I was telling people it was going $320+, it was pretty obvious that it was sufficient for a narrative change, and there's only been more positive news/shameless pumping since then. Market through all time highs has helped a lot as well, more than you'd think.

I'm in a "wait and see" holding pattern on this one.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-12-2019 , 04:04 PM
gigafactory 4 announced near Berlin
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-13-2019 , 03:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xkf
gigafactory 4 announced near Berlin
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tech Crunch
...this factory will build batteries, powertrains and vehicles, beginning with the Model Y.
https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/12/el...e-gigafactory/

TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-13-2019 , 10:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pretzel
Just curious, what ever happened with those lots in California that had 1,000s of model 3s sitting on them for no apparent reason about a year ago? Seems like it was a big deal for a while and then I didn't hear anything about it. Do they still exist? Did all the cars just gradually get removed and sold? Was there any explanation from Tesla?

Last year shorting at 350 and covering at 300 served me well, so I got back in short around 320 and added at 340. But all the news and mojo seems positive lately. With the truck reveal and China factory opening I don't really see what is going to cause the stock to drop anytime soon.
Like I said even at the time, for a company selling hundreds of thousands of cars a year, it's perfectly normal to have parking lots of inventory in transit or somehow in miscellaneous limbo.

I knew this because I used to drive up and down the NJ turnpike for commute and parking lots with literally tens of thousands of cars are visible from the highway. I also know most car manufacturers got a lot more cars sitting in dealer lots (which would be inventory for Tesla.)
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-13-2019 , 11:08 AM
I love how Mark Spiegel is absolutely losing his ****. If you ever need to curb your happiness, read his twitter and you'll end up feeling like everything is bad and the world will end.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-13-2019 , 02:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis
I love how Mark Spiegel is absolutely losing his ****. If you ever need to curb your happiness, read his twitter and you'll end up feeling like everything is bad and the world will end.
Yeah I've enjoyed mocking Spiegel over the years. The shorts are almost as dumb as the longs in this stock.

Still, he has a point today. Elon Musk is certainly a confirmed liar and fraud, who stole billions from investors. He should be in prison. Bloomberg covers it well today (here's a good summary if you don't have Bloomberg):

Quote:
Almost every promise Musk made about the acquisition of the solar company to investors and the public ahead of and following the May 2016 deal was either misleading or false, Bloomberg Businessweek said, after reviewing thousands of pages of internal emails, board minutes and presentations, and executive testimony.

Indeed, the concept of a "Solar Roof" that resembled a traditional rooftop shingle but could capture power from the sun has never panned out either technologically or sales-wise - something Tesla's leadership, including Musk himself, was aware of all along, according to Bloomberg Businessweek.
The market is betting these massive deliberate frauds don't touch Tesla's main numbers. I think that's a pretty dumb bet if you look at the history of fraud.

Where's turtletom to come and tell us we don't know how to read a deposition? Maybe he can write a strongly worded letter to Bloomberg about how he sat in a deposition once and it was different in trial.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-13-2019 , 03:23 PM
Spiegel covered his shorts on last years pump into the 300s (before it dives to 180), then switches over to Jan 2020 200 puts that are now almost worthless. I covered my puts around 200 (lucky), mistakes I made:

> Fell too deep into TSLAQ, let my bias guide me
> Kept my error bars narrow when it's clear all kinds of stuff can happen in the non long-run
> Felt smart for seeing this as a clear fraud, which has next to nothing to do with trading

My entry was good and I still like the trade, the odds of it hitting were just lower than I realized going in. Following TSLA well is a huge time suck for me, I've switched over to a simple short from above 300 that can't get squeezed and don't mind just waiting things out now.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-13-2019 , 03:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by case3
Spiegel covered his shorts on last years pump into the 300s (before it dives to 180), then switches over to Jan 2020 200 puts that are now almost worthless. I covered my puts around 200 (lucky), mistakes I made:

> Fell too deep into TSLAQ, let my bias guide me
> Kept my error bars narrow when it's clear all kinds of stuff can happen in the non long-run
> Felt smart for seeing this as a clear fraud, which has next to nothing to do with trading

My entry was good and I still like the trade, the odds of it hitting were just lower than I realized going in. Following TSLA well is a huge time suck for me, I've switched over to a simple short from above 300 that can't get squeezed and don't mind just waiting things out now.
The contortions from guys like you and TS to try to win in all situations on this board is hilarious. I wonder how many posts we could bump from both of you guys that stimulated discussions where someone became a long term bear. You both may be the best traders in the world, your fundamental takes have been laughably wrong and it should be repeated over and over again.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-13-2019 , 08:35 PM
Page 420 of thread. Nice
TSLA showing cracks? Quote
11-13-2019 , 09:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OlafTheSnowman
Page 420 of thread. Nice
25 posts per page?? Please list your trades so I can fade them.
TSLA showing cracks? Quote

      
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