thought plate restrictions didn't apply to electric cars. Is that incorrect?

The Chinese factory has the backing of party bosses and is financed by state owned banks. Tesla also already has a cult following among the rich second gens (some of which have already paid huge premiums to buy through third party resellers.)

Unless Elon tweets some Xi/Winnie meme, Tesla cars are going to sell like hotcakes in China.

They already don't sell like hot cakes. Why would they next year ? What will change ?

The cars won't have to clear customs for one change. What they have managed to get into the country, they have sold. Going forward, in Shanghai at least, they'll get their license plates.

The same people importing Lambos and other luxury vehicles into China are picking up Model Ss and 3s and shipping them into China at 50+% markup. The demand is there but Tesla is too incompetent to take advantage.

That just seems like speculation. Why sell cars at negative margin here if you can ship them to china and make bank?

Because Chinese government held Teslas at the port for weeks and they still have unmet demand in Europe and US.

Such high margins would also rapidly disappear once production ramps up in China so they had no interest in pricing the cars that high to begin with.

Unmet demand at negative margins vs annoying but huge demand at positive margins ?

I know tesla isnt the smartest...

They couldn't get the positive margins because China wasn't letting the cars through... in large part because Tesla apparently didn't bother hiring local lawyers to file the proper paper work.

China has a huge addressable market. Chinese people will 100% want to drive EVs but I am not sure if they will want a Tesla specifically. In the short term they probably will, and I expect the bottleneck in China to be the maximum production at the Shanghai factory (once it starts shipping cars) rather than lack of demand. As competition intensifies and more Chinese companies enter the space, not sure. If Teslas cost a lot more and Chinese companies successfully emulate their products, maybe not. Also a lot of regulatory risk which is difficult to predict and quantify; some signs China is opening up to foreign companies, but that could go pear shaped at any moment.

Before the Solar city merger, Kimball's Tesla margin call was at 177.49.
So it's probably lower now that the Solar City shares are converted, but not too much lower. No wonder 178 was defended so hard.

Super interesting

Europe has 740 million people, most of them far wealthier than the average Chinese person. Many of them are also more eco-conscious. If Tesla demand is so horrible in Europe that they have to drop prices 40K euro overnight to save already small flagging sales (and only get big sales in big subsidy countries like Norway/Holland), why would China suddenly go well? Your take makes no sense.

For example, here is China's share of the world's millionaires despite an enormous population:



And much of that money is tied up in property or business rather than disposable income. This relative poverty in China is even more pronounced in the area of "people rich enough to buy a Tesla" - China has a GDP per capita of a mere 8500 USD, almost a third world country; Germany for example has a GDP per capita of 44,000.

Germany sold roughly 9000 Teslas this year. This is despite the population of people who have the means to buy Teslas being larger than that in all of China.

So I'm not sold on the notion that China represents a great opportunity for extremely expensive Teslas. The market size just isn't there. There's a big market for very cheap electric cars, but Teslas are and will continue to be a pure luxury product even by Western standards. There's nothing in their 3+ year pipeline that's remotely affordable for the large majority of Chinese.

You'll probably get one more chance. The stock will drop one more time (recession) before it'll never be below $300 ever again.

This thread is an echo chamber by bears who have the wildest theories. They have never been right for a time window of 3+ months.

You'll have people ITT reporting that they love their Teslas and still question whether Tesla is a good company. The bears make up all kinds of alternative realities, yet it never materializes. No bear theory has held up for more than one year. It's always something else that will bring Tesla down. The reality is: Tesla has a large amount of loyal customers who love the car and have no intention of leaving. Paired with the fact that Tesla has now proven to be the best electric car manufacturer (see Porsche vs. Tesla example, where Tesla's 6 year old Model S is better than Porsche's new car at half the price) in the world, there is no doubt (in my mind at least) that Tesla will survive and will be one of the largest car makers in the world going forward.

Bears have been right for a window of 3+ years, even after this rip. Tesla has hugely underperformed the market (up 80% while Tesla is down).

The stock losing 50% in an up market after the CEO claims that he's taking it private at $420 is a bear crushing the thesis. Having the CEO admit they were "single digit weeks away from bankruptcy" is a bear crushing the thesis. That they've continued to tick over in a ZIRP easy money 2000s tech bubble type world (see: WeWork's funding) doesn't invalidate the bear case, any more than it did for Enron or WeWork or Pets.com or Valeant.

Lots of people love WeWork too. People love Fords and they went bankrupt, needing a bailout. Why wouldn't people love Teslas?? Musk incinerated $10 billion in taxpayer and investor funds - and billions more in individual tax credits - to create 500,000 cars - that's a $20K subsidy per car even before the tax credit. With that much inflowing capital incinerated, even your ******ed uncle Goober could make cars that people love. Hell, people would think I'm god's gift if I sold $37K BMWs for $10K (the extent of the subsidies) and they'd fly off the shelves like hotcakes. Making cars sold at $27K per car below cost be "loved" isn't an accomplishment, it's actually a certain outcome. The talent is in lying and defrauding and pushing donkey-carrots on a grand enough scale to get that kind of money.

What Tesla needs is new customers, not the ones they have. Nerdy tech losers who want to feel connected and special are a niche group, although there are millions of them.

lol?
Thanks for getting that on the record. You claimed for a period there was significant uncertainty whether Tesla would make it, now you have "no doubt" that they will be one of the largest car makers in the world - which over 7 million cars/year. Ironically, if they achieve that, their valuation would properly be lower than what it is now.

facts, thanks for the post

Stuff like this just makes you seem irrational imo.

In what way is the Model S better than the Porsche Taycan?

In what way will Tesla be one of the largest car makers in the world? I tried to find a list of largest car manufacturers by vehicle production (which seems like a good metric), and couldn't find a list that goes down far enough to include Tesla. The biggest list I could find stopped at Baojun with at 879k units (25th place).

Can't find a good list for revenues, but Tesla is not even close to being a large player. And without a miraculous China success I don't see major potential for huge top line growth.

TIL Tesla will go bankrupt, because it underperformed the market. This is the sort of goal post moving that causes the bears to be wrong on the actual performance, but temporarily right for whatever they are after in this very moment.

How is this proving anything? This proves nothing for the bears. It has nothing to do with bankruptcy, literally nothing.

I love the fact that you still rely on the "single digits away from bankruptcy" claim, yet don't believe a single word Musk is saying.

This is simply not the truth. Of course, there are costs associated with the start of a car company. But your claim that the current Model 3 prices are 20k below the real price is just nonsense. But it's the sort of thing that is easy to comprehend by the bear brain and makes them think "yeah, yeah, this sounds right, Tesla will go down, they lose 20k per car".


Not sure what your point is. But a loyal customer base is going to go a long way or are you trying to say it's a bad thing? Of course, they need new customers, but so far, they've been selling more cars per quarter than the quarter before.

What? Tesla's Model S is six years older, better on the specs and a prototype beat the time on the Nürburgring. Even if the Porsche was slightly better, it wouldn't prove anything, because the competition for the Porsche will be the new Roadster and not the Model S, which costs way less.

I am now certain that Tesla will survive. One of the largest car makers in the world is a top 10 car maker (or top 15). 2-5 million cars sold per year.

See answer above. Established car manufacturers can't outclass Tesla in most of the relevant metrics even given the fact that they have more money available and more experience. It kills the entire argument that once the major companies start selling EVs it's game over for Tesla. It's now more or less certain that they have a significant knowledge gap compared to Tesla and Tesla is years ahead of them.

They are not there yet, they will be in the future. I expect them to sell 2-5 million cars. This is not going to happen next year or three years from now, but more in the 5+ year range.

You don't see major potential for top line growth? Stuff like this just makes you seem irrational imo.

Who?

I have never met anyone who loves WeWork offices. The best feature they have is the short-term nature of the contract, which appeals to early stage companies (stringent commercial leases have been a major cause of failure for startups). Whilst the flexibility is appealing, it means that users are attracted by the ease of leaving, not because they love the product.

Tesla is the polar opposite in terms of the extent to which people love their products. Similar to Apple in how irrational and fervent they are about Tesla products. I am not arguing about the quality of the product itself, but the extent to which people love (or want to buy) them.

*** I know someone who rented "private offices" from WeWork for his staff, his experience was not good and he switched to another provider after a couple of months. I have also inspected WeWork offices myself in multiple cities and decided they are not as good (quality) or as efficient (cost) as other operators.

I know lots of people that have liked WeWork [myself included]. Not just the contractual aspect of it but the actual experience. Claiming otherwise is ridiculous and shows that you probably don't understand the industry at all. Regus and similar don't offer an experience anywhere close to what WeWork offers in terms of atmosphere / perks / etc.

This isn't at all controversial. And similar to what TS said, shouldn't be at all surprising given the cash WeWork has burned.

Lol, Despacito - I saw the post you deleted. Probably for the best since it definitely wasn't making your argument about how nobody likes WeWork any stronger.

Me: Tesla has a cult like following whose love for its products is beyond rational. WeWork does not.

You: How dare you. I am at least as irrational as members of the Tesla cult, if not more so.

*** pro tip: you can buy cold brewed coffee and craft beer at a convenience store without paying 2-3X market rate on a crappy office. see how long "the experience" lasts in a recession.

Lol, what? I don't think the bar was ever "love for its product is beyond rational".

You claimed people didn't like WeWorks. That it was because of the ease of leaving that people even used WeWorks. This is just completely wrong. You then tried to tie this to being able to get cheap cold brew coffee and craft beer somewhere else. Which is just more evidence that you don't even understand the market WeWork is in or their basic business.

Edit: And just because you seem dense, I'm not defending their business or saying its good. WeWork as a company is obviously a **** show. But the original point being made in this thread is that a business' product can be great while the company is complete **** - and in a lot of ways its easier to build a great business product if you're fine with having a shitty business.

when's that recession coming? because according to my sources (the ceo), end of next year they'll basically have a robotaxi monopoly with a million cars. it's definitely not going below $300 after that.

The deposition stuff is hilarious. But it wont matter for the stock. No one is changing their mind on elon.

nothing seems to matters, as long as people are willing to set their money on fire for the company.

there's a reasonable case to make that the stock will just go nowhere for years, maybe a decade (which makes it an ok short and it's what it has basically done the last 5 years), just slowly diluting shareholders (look at stockbased comp & secondaries), yet never returning a profit.

i think we already discussed that here like a few hundred pages earlier. that's basically my "bull" case.