The one time items likely weren't that big (unless there was some one time trueup reducing cogs??) and fsd revenue was only 30M.

The profit is from the cogs reduction, can that be maintained?

some extremely reliable people on twitter have said they have confirmation from suppliers that Tesla used contracts to supply parts for the model as a way to negotiate a one time rebate on existing contracts. Which actually makes total sense and explains the impossible improvement to COGS. Depending on the type and length of the contract, a lot of those benefits would be immediately recognized.

Hence the "one time items" in the improvement, you know they probably didnt want to say that but I am guessing it makes up the lions share of the savings.

ya this and the Motorhead account were what i was referencing

That makes a ton of sense and certainly seems unsustainable.

Fwiw I thought this was mildly interesting: I work for a company in the financial sector that interacts with Tesla, company stance on Tesla is quite conservative (and I am not involved in any way wrt decision making on stance towards Tesla).

I was forwarded a mail today of a Tesla spokesperson sending a mail to our company to announce that they were very happy to announce the very strong results of Tesla, and that we should check them out.

I've never seen this type of mail before. Maybe we receive this type of mail every quarter (I'm very far away from the people who the mail was addressed to), I don't know. Regardless, coincidental that this is the first time I receive this mail . If Tesla used some tricks to create really good quarterly results, the mail could be a smart move from Tesla .

I'd buy this car, minus the rose gold trim.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CGasparin...53987999621122

Re: the quarterly, any insight into cogs for solar & energy storage?

Also...

Of course as this thread probably knows, I didn't buy the dip at the last second. I don't know why I listened to anything Toothsayer said, because he's already proven to have suspect opinions (thinks Bitcoin Cash is viable / CSW is not 100% a fraud). FML

.

A little results oriented, no?

Tesla posts a $143M profit after already losing $1.1B this year. Robo taxis still wont be a thing in 2020. Your only hope as a long is that the china factory keeps them from needing to borrow until the end of time. If you thought that was probable then you had no reason to listen to the bears.

With a pile of cash there are so many better companies to invest in for the long term, they just aren't sexy and in the news all the time.

Good God, the CSW stuff is a joke.

And what the actual ****, bro? As far as Tesla goes (and bitcoin for that matter) I've given you the gift of nailing this long and short. You had a dumb thesis that Musk had a "chance" at $240 of making autonomous robotaxis happen. I told you why that wouldn't happen and how Tesla were in dire straits

It then dropped to $180 (you would have panic sold), and at $190 as the delivery picture turned with the leaked email (proving demand death was ending), I recommended long and actually argued with the shorts that they should get long and not short.

I mean, here is the history of me in this thread, giving you solid gold advice on when to stay out/get short and when to get long. I've given even more solid advice privately, arguing black and blue with shorts that they should cover at $190 and get long (moronic unappreciative statements like yours are why I don't do that here)

I mean, read it here in black and white. Had you actually listened you'd be goddamn rich. At $240 when you wanted to buy in right before the straight down to $178, I warned you off, and weeks later you actually thanked me:
When Musk's email came out talking about good deliveries in June:
Here's me recommending to get long at $190:
Here's me saying it's +EV to take calls at $200.
Again arguing for long and buying calls:
Here's me talking about how a record delivery quarter, which is quite likely, will send the stock up.
To top it all off, coming into earnings just now at $250 I saw tremendous risk for a short given Musk's ability to pull various levers and given the fact they're close to profitability - it sets up exactly the situation that Musk just pulled. And leaned long into this as well given that situation.
The only thing I haven't absolutely nailed since you wanted to buy at $240 was the $250-$300 rip, and even there I'd choose the long side over the short.

You should be thanking me on your knees for saving you money when your mind got Musked, and providing excellent calls and analysis, first predicting upcoming demand death at $300, all the way down to $180 including kindly correcting your erroneous notions on FSD, then reversing course and repeatedly arguing long at $190 when the demand death narrative clearly changed, including "load up the platinum grills on Tesla calls" in a strong market. I saw and correctly predicted the impact it would have. Rather than being thanked for nailing the analysis in a way that anyone made a fortune if they just listened to me, instead I get ripped for your dumb decisions. This kind of bullshit is why I don't post much here anymore or provide my most insightful analysis.

TS has had all the right reads on on TSLA lately, have to hand it to him when he’s right if you want to give him **** when he’s wrong

I appreciate TS his analysis on TSLA. After almost exclusively playing it on the short side the past 12-18 months I’ve been playing the long side towards last 2 ERs run up. I didn’t hold through the ERs, which was the right decision for the ER before this one but unfortunate for this ER. However at $300 here I decided to buy some January puts - fingers crossed

So restrained...

Probably something fairly terrible is coming that's spurring Elon to ignite shorts now:

Don't worry champ, you'll get em next time

I'm not so sure. On one hand, this is what they did last Q3 and it ended up a smoke and mirrors show. On the other, they are set to penetrate the China market, and there is absurd amounts of money to be made there.

If they are a one time supplier discount away from burning the shorts then how far from profitability can they actually be?

Keep us updated on your positions dude, know the last few days have been painful but in fairness it's still in this long term range (for now), still got a lot of big names like Chanos and Einhorn who as of recent comments aren't going anywhere.

This is what my takeaway is this week, the Chinese (so far) love this brand already and the potential there has always been a thing but now it's becoming a reality. Tesla/Musk (so far) also have managed to avoid heat from Trump and the trade war, however they would still be subject to a global slowdown in consumer spending.

My core short is roughly break even overall thanks to perpetual monthly put selling increasing my short basis from $280 to $320ish but my LEAP puts are obviously all getting killed so I am now quite down on this trade.

I think the core takeaway is that LEAP puts are a mistake as Elon has shown that he will do anything it takes to live one more quarter and the market will let him do that as 65% of the float is basically on the moon.

I'm going to be changing my strategy to just maintaining a core short position while selling vol, both calls and puts, and not bothering with buying options at all.

I still think it's a generational short opportunity because it's almost a guaranteed zero, although probably in the form of a slow drifting boat towards zero. So long as you manage your risk to not get stopped out at funding secured type incidents, then you can just ride the boat as it eventually goes to zero.

Tesla already tries to sell cars in China. Why do we think theres huge demand there ?

I think China is not that relevant as IIRC the tax credit for EVs will end sometime in 2020, so there's an impending demand cliff afterwards. But I suppose the bulls will buy it up.

Where's the evidence of this? Demand/sales in China are terrible, especially given the size of the electric market here. China also has plate restrictions and subsidies are winding down.

How is becoming a reality?

Fair point given the cost from the Chinese gigafactory will not be much cheaper avoiding import fees and tariffs. My point was more that it's building brand loyalty and starting from a small base, given sales are already slumping in the overall global auto market and within China internally there is potential for disruption. Check out how all the various used electric cars sell for vs a Tesla, much better demand and retention of value.