Deliveries this q will decide for sure if shorts were right about demand problem

This reminds me of sim city back in the day when I would raise the taxes 2% then down one, so I could hear the people cheer and then mutter “idiots” to myself

I have a feeling tesla sees 300 after earnings

30*

If there is no fsd shenanigans then it could be another -400mm loss. Tiny chance of even worse. I've been reading that they will beat, but I just can't see it without pulling some questionable accounting. Luckily the price has stayed pumped and we could easily see a 30$ drop from 255

This seems like a total crapshoot to me. On the one hand consensus estimates are for a 16c loss, which is tiny ($30 million or so?), so they basically need to show a profit to beat analysts estimates.

On the other hand there are some levers they can pull to show that profit, including some FSD recogition, they had a record quarter (with more Europe in there and new markets with a higher end mix), they're still getting payments for emissions credits (including FCAU), and S/X picked up a little from last quarter.

And on top of that they have pumps they can push, including China "coming online soon", Model Y, FSD next year, etc.

There's nothing to predict here imo. Sitting out of this one, and if I was forced to choose a side I'd choose long.

If they don't recognize any FSD revenue and lose 350mm, but pump the **** out of their future and China, how do you think the market reacts? On one hand, people believe anything musk says and China could actually be a significant market, on the other it's another massive loss on record deliveries.

Interesting to see you leaning long TS, though I definitely have some concerns about FSD recognition

I'm also not doing anything. I think they likely lose 200M but wouldn't be surprised with break even. Just don't have a strong feeling on what happens.

I think FSD is overblown and wont be worth more than 30M if anything.

Case closed.

(I agree with TS).

I was thinking 1 240p for the sweat, but talked myself out of it. I didn't see anything that could reasonably 3x+, even if it hit 225

while we wait, let's look at some highlights

Tslaq Twitter talking nonstop in Q2 about how Q3 was going to be an absolute disaster because tesla pulled every lever in Q2.

Just plain wrong.

Its going to take years for this stock to go to 0.

huge EPS beat lol fml

I cant wait to watch the tslaq meltdown on twitter.

Then I'll short more

Super interested to see how they pulled that off. Their revs are dead ass with last quarter. They pulled a billion dollar flip from somewhere

Yea even if mix is better, it's not THAT much better.

Maybe they went crazy and recognized all of the FSD revenue.

F5 on Spiegel's twitter. Would love to see his blood pressure.

Credit to those of you guys who have leaned bearish sniffing this out ahead of time, did anyone make money or avoid a huge loss?

Already seeing tslaq "just wait till next Q". Its going to be years before tsla is done.

GAAP Automotive gross margin improved by 393bp QoQ to 22.8% (improved by 366bp QoQ excluding regulatory credits). Margin was
impacted in part due to fundamental improvements in our operating efficiency, including higher fixed cost absorption, reductions in
manufacturing and material costs and continued improvements in vehicle quality and in part due to Smart Summon-related deferred
revenue recognition, FX and other non-recurring items. Improved gross profit combined with a decline in operating expenses resulted in
material improvement of GAAP net income.

Mayve they got a huge payment from FCA.

Cash increased too:
"Quarter end cash and cash equivalents increased to $5.3B, driven by positive free cash flow of $371M. Note that operating cash flows are
negatively impacted by increased automotive leasing mix. Draws against our working capital facilities, including leases awaiting securitization,
are included in financing cash flows. Capex increased sequentially due to investments in Gigafactory Shanghai and Model Y preparations in
Fremont."

What was the short interest in TSLA? Seems like it was ripe for a face ripper. Wasn't playing it, but congrats to the longs.

Revenue down. But costs of the cars down 230M, service costs down 76M.

So it wasn't that mix was better its that costs went down a ton. I'm pretty surprised at that.

Don't actually think these financials are all that impressive.

Depending on how much FSD revenues they recognized, top line could be down close to 5% from Q2.

The FCF is nice but net debt remained flat (decreased with 66m), if the revenues don't grow significantly their debt (let alone current stock price) is problematic.

Will be interesting to see if they can grow top line again soon while maintaining the margins of last 2 Q's (which is what they eventually need).