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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

09-28-2019 , 04:14 AM
Feels like a "First the flood, then the bigger flood" situation we've got here.

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09-28-2019 , 04:21 AM
Simple solution: stay well clear of car parks, roads, etc at all times. Yikes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by de captain
I'm setting the line at 42 days before there's a national news story about someone in a parking lot being run down by a Tesla being summoned, or one of them going berserk and causing substantial damage.
I'm setting the line at 42 days until Model S beats the Taycan at Shomborguring with no driver (using summon).

Last edited by despacito; 09-28-2019 at 04:26 AM.
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09-28-2019 , 08:32 AM
What on Earth is going on here? This is the most hacked together shitty software in the history of human civilization:



Note - this is one of the "successful" videos. The software has:

- Terrible reaction times (> 5 seconds)
- No 3D/lane mapping/spatial awareness
- No forward planning -the algorithms literally does nothing but go in the general direction of its target (ignoring most lanes, parking lines, one way markers, other traffic) until it encounters an obstacle, which it detects with an ultra-slow reaction time of many seconds. Then it spends 5-10 seconds just sitting there thinking about what to do next. Then it does an ultra awkward maneuver to try and reset. Then for the coup de gras, if it gets to its target it pulls up by blocking the entire road.

To those of you who know nothing about programming, a reasonably skilled programmer working by themselves for a year using $5 webcams could produce something much better (like this guy); to program better than the level of skill displayed here is trivially easy.

I have no idea how you could mess up on this level given the time and resources they have had.

Do any of the bulls, seeing this outcome, still think this research report on the state of Tesla autonomous driving is incorrect?


Last edited by ToothSayer; 09-28-2019 at 08:38 AM.
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09-28-2019 , 09:21 AM
Their already expensive insurance premiums will go up again from this. At least the severity on these claims will generally low (unless they manage to hit people).
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09-28-2019 , 09:22 AM
I wonder if this will spook some institutional investors. This shows they are nowhere near FSD, and there are videos readily available showing how much more advanced the other companies are. FSD is Tesla's only path to profitability. Any institution under the delusion that they will solve it any time soon should see from this that's BS.
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09-28-2019 , 09:25 AM
Lol at that parking lot with a crossroad video.

How are road safety agencies not banning this feature from being used? How in the hell is this allowed to happen?
What are insurance companies going to do?
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09-28-2019 , 09:33 AM
I fixed your stupid chart.



Quote:
Originally Posted by JKC
FSD is Tesla's only path to profitability.
What about reducing costs in order to make money selling cars?
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09-28-2019 , 09:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Didace
bbfg,


What do you think the role of an external auditor is?
I know what the role of an external auditor is. They just have to give their opinion on the accuracy of the FS, proper accounting rules being used, fairness of the FS, bla bla bla...

You have to agree that this includes a lot of work that is not "black & white", right? You disagree that large corporates get favorable treatment where necessary? I am ofc not talking about "E&Y discovered huge inconsistencies in accounting rules for accounts receivables, and gives company x a pass". But you don't think simple scenarios like this happen?:

A huge debt renegotiation is coming up in the next FY, and the FS state that they are in talks with lenders and are very confident that it will not be an issue. This is clearly a very optimistic interpretation of the current state of the debt renegotiation, which looks like it will be very challenging at least. Auditor lets it slide and says everything is OK.
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09-28-2019 , 01:03 PM
These summon videos are amazing. There's a steady stream of absurd attempts that likely won't stop any time soon. One thing i've noticed is that when you hear the owners talking about it they're tech nerds. They get a hard on for the feature but it is completely useless. Like they stand there like theyre handicapped as the car clumsily makes its way to them slower than walking speed. Theyre showing off the tech but the tech is a sloppy mess and the performance is just embarrassing them. I can't see how this could be suppressed by mainstream finance news
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09-28-2019 , 01:26 PM
Summon is actually significantly crappier than I ever expected, and I have very low expectations for any of the so called self driving features. And this isn't based on some isolated video - they're all over. Even the video posters that are impressed with it show it doing little more than driving in a straight line and ignoring all traffic rules. Absolutely pathetic. And robotaxi is happening in 2020... Okay Elon.
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09-28-2019 , 02:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Summon is actually significantly crappier than I ever expected, and I have very low expectations for any of the so called self driving features. And this isn't based on some isolated video - they're all over. Even the video posters that are impressed with it show it doing little more than driving in a straight line and ignoring all traffic rules. Absolutely pathetic. And robotaxi is happening in 2020... Okay Elon.
It really is that bad.



These conditions are a parking lot turned up to 1000 and it handles itself really well. How summon can be so bad compared to this, and have people jizzing in their pants is beyond me.
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09-28-2019 , 03:04 PM
That self summon feature is... lol. Terrible. Our of curiosity, what is the disclaimer Tesla is using?

Be warned the software is in pre-alpha state. By clicking the "summon" button you're agreeing to become Tesla's lab rat and Tesla will not be responsible for anything that happens whatsoever?

Last edited by grizy; 09-28-2019 at 03:09 PM.
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09-28-2019 , 04:51 PM
quarter ends on monday, they delivered some kind of product, so i guess they will recognize some of fsd revenues.
what other reason is there to release... this, whatever it is.

my guess is we get a "fix" that disables it after market closes on friday.
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09-28-2019 , 05:50 PM
I don’t think they will recognize FSD revenues, mostly because I don’t think such a move is enough to push their earnings to positive.

I think this whole enhanced summons thing is just another one of Musk’s “I am going to volunteer my customers to alpha test software that’s not ready, can potentially kill people, and definitely can cause property damage.”

Why is he doing it now? I think it’s because Nevada is basically at capacity (tent is basically permanent now) and the next big burst in production numbers is not expected to come until the end of this year (if you believe Musk, and you shouldn’t) or early/mid next year (pretty much what people actually expect) when China factory starts to ramp up.

Last edited by grizy; 09-28-2019 at 05:56 PM.
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09-28-2019 , 05:55 PM
But there's no point in testing it, all of its functions are comically inept and a software team would gain nothing from public testing.

Musk is either batshit insane releasing this or desperately needs to recognize FSD revenue. I can't see any reason why any CEO would release something so shockingly bad. I guess we'll know in 3.5 weeks when earnings comes.
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09-28-2019 , 07:39 PM
I think tooth is spot on. Why release glorified remote control car mode if it's not to recognize some revenue?

Elon worries wayyyy too much about stock price.
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09-28-2019 , 07:48 PM
Summons lead engineer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3ruVMeQ2Ss

Found this training video where elon learned about the concept:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1oEm0J90nw
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09-29-2019 , 05:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
But there's no point in testing it, all of its functions are comically inept and a software team would gain nothing from public testing.

Musk is either batshit insane releasing this or desperately needs to recognize FSD revenue. I can't see any reason why any CEO would release something so shockingly bad. I guess we'll know in 3.5 weeks when earnings comes.
Have you used summon?
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09-29-2019 , 05:40 AM
Recognizing FSD revenues will also only have a P&L impact and no CF impact, right? I think the majority of important Tesla stock or debt holders are focused primarily on FCF given Tesla its way-too-long history with hugely negative FCF.
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09-29-2019 , 09:22 AM
That is correct, and part of why I don’t think TSLA will bother gaming FSD to get more revenues. They should keep that in reserve for when it will push them to positive EPS.

Last edited by grizy; 09-29-2019 at 09:29 AM.
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09-29-2019 , 09:51 AM
They're focused on FCF when it looks better than EPS. Then when EPS looks better they focus on that.

Theres some thought that maybe they are closer to even EPS than people think and this will put them there.
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09-29-2019 , 09:57 AM
I would love to hear thoughts of a lead from Waymo's or GM on this "feature"
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09-29-2019 , 10:35 AM
Waymo can find customers on a busy street. Enhanced summon can’t find owners in an empty parking lot.

*overstating the situation a bit
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09-30-2019 , 10:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mercury News
With its latest business quarter ending Monday, Tesla has its sights set on reporting deliveries of at least 100,000 vehicles for the three months of July, August and September.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/09/...ar-deliveries/
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