Looks like bears were dead wrong on demand collapse in Q3. Only took one price cut and they may be hitting record deliveries.

robotaxis tho

Theres such a huge disconnect between SGF and Elon numbers this quarter. But elons leaks last quarter were spot on. Not sure what to trust.

Has anyone been pushing demand death this quarter? They'd have to sell ~125k units to break even anyways. Seems unlikely they do that kind of volume

Which bears? I've been bullish on deliveries for a while now. Don't listen to Twitter.
I trust Elon numbers quite strongly on this. All the available data shows tracking at roughly Q2 + we have new markets open, some of which have done well, plus we have a few nice breakout countries.

Added a little puts

Almost everyone on tslaq Twitter was saying "q2 might be a record deliveries but it's at the expense of q3 which should be a disaster "

Let's all get together and give TS a big high five on five figure day, suck it you short cucks!

This is gonna be a long drawn out process. Tesla can clearly sell cars and that's not going to stop. Stock owners dont care that they are sold at a loss. Y is coming next.

They'll end up selling something like 115 in Q4. I know they are running out of pent up demand and subsidy, but its not killing them yet.

Of course they'll still lose a lot of money, but the shareholders are willing to accept that and donate more.

Thoughts on if they will recognize some FSD revenue to print a profit ?

That would be borderline fraud, so they would definitely consider it

You mean they'll definitely book as much of the profit as they think they can get away with.

The new enhanced summon release could have something to do with that.

The other possibility is punting net income and focusing only on manipulated cash flow and delivery numbers in preparation for a future "blowout" quarter where they book a lot/all of the FSD revenue. Basically, anything to prevent people from looking at the big picture. One or two "good" numbers at a time while punting the rest.

They're releasing advanced summon this week (in its awful state), in the last week of the quarter. So that may well be the plan to partially realize.

Another thought I had - if deliveries are up but u.s. deliveries are down, does the market like that ?

What FSD revenue are you guys talking about? Do you mean the FSD chips Tesla is selling as an optional upgrade?

Payments that Tesla has accepted from customers for the purchase of the Full Self Driving package cannot be recognized as revenue until those features are delivered to them. Those payments show up as Deferred Revenue on their quarterly statements. They become actual revenue when the promised features are delivered.

Tesla has decided that it can deliver the FSD package in small increments so they get to recognize some, but not all, of that deferred revenue when those releases occur. I'm not sure who gets to decide what percentages are acceptable. Is Advanced *snicker* Summon 10% of FSD? 20%? 5%? No one knows.

According to the fanboys over on r/tesla:

"Haha so FSD is delivered! Sit in car, drop a pin on New York, and sit in the driver seat holding the phone button from LA! 5mph road trip!"

Which means fsd is basically complete with a simple speed restriction. I'd guess Elon & despacito agree and they should be able to book 98% of fsd revenue.

That's an accounting issue, but it doesn't matter much either way, FSD will be ready soon (robotaxi secured).

I'm setting the line at 42 days before there's a national news story about someone in a parking lot being run down by a Tesla being summoned, or one of them going berserk and causing substantial damage.

First recorded summon accident. This thing is an absolute disaster. We saw earlier from the betas how awful it is at navigating, how slow it is at reacting (many seconds to notice changes in its environment like with the kid and her dog posted above - it wasn't trying to run them over, it just took many many seconds to react to changes in their position because the software and the hardware is a sick joke). How it drives on the wrong side of the road, fails to respect clear one way lane markings, stops in the middle of the road, takes 5-10 seconds to recognize a change in its environment and adjust course. This thing in busy parking lots is going to cause lots of crashes that a human driver would easy avoid by driving predictably and having a reaction time less than "Smart Summon's" 5+ seconds.



Note how the car goes straight ahead like it's going to go into the parking spot, so the other driver starts backing up. Then it fails to see the other driver backing up, and fails to react in the many seconds available to it...very very few human drivers would have an accident here. This is a bad joke.

I can't think Musk is dumb enough to release an absolute turd like this that will be a PR nightmare, so I can only assume they're doing it in the last week of the quarter to recognize some of the vaporware revenue and try to get the quarter numbers up. That's the most bullish take on this release.

I mean, look at this ****. Drives straight into the cross road with very very clear oncoming traffic!!! - the other driver has to take evasive action.



The company that released this to the public in the last week of the quarter is utterly incompetent with insane management, and possibly desperately trying to get the quarter numbers up by recognizing vaporware revenue.

This is an absolute shitshow. It hasn't improved at all from those comically bad alpha videos and now it's in the hands of the general public. Even when it's not running into things, it's a painfully slow and incompetent traffic hazard, and takes 5+ seconds to react to a change in its environment.

This is what they've come up with after 4 years of development time. Nearly four years ago Musk claimed that summon could drive all the way across the USA in ~2 years:



Four years later it can't even drive 20 yards across a parking lot without being a major traffic hazard. Amazing stuff. 1 million fully self driving robotaxis in 2020, anyone?

You're being overly critical:

r/tesla:

Fwiw these fawning fans note that a "minor glitch" is the fact that it simply "drives straight toward you" (for lack of a better term) as opposed to pulling up alongside the curb to pick you up. If you're standing in front of a store it doesn't pull up alongside like you'd expect, it simply drives straight toward where you're standing, thus blocking both lanes of traffic in front of the store until you get in.

This whole thing is sure to be an insurance nightmare. I assume an unmanned car loses every insurance claim under current regulations right?

Parking lots with children and old people + 5 second reaction time to any change in circumstances. What could possibly go wrong?

The comments for this tweet are must read. They range from blaming the guy for using it in a busy parking lot, to the Tesla had the right of way, to the whole thing was staged to make Tesla look bad and calling the guy a douchebag for posting this.