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TSLA showing cracks? TSLA showing cracks?

06-09-2016 , 01:35 PM
I started reading and immediately identified the source as an idiot, just like most of your other sources. Irrespective whether they are wrong or right btw, they are just terrible quality.

This forum doesn't even have trading in the name, I'm here for business, finance and investing.

Also, you're as much of a hater as I'm a nuthugger, so what's there to complain about?
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06-09-2016 , 01:44 PM
TruthSayer doesn't trade this either so I'm not really sure what he is talking about.
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06-09-2016 , 01:46 PM
Quote:
I started reading and immediately identified the source as an idiot, just like most of your other sources.
Well, you and other Musk lovers aren't very bright. The 300K orders projection on the Model 3 in a negative article on Tesla was widely rubbished as trying to "diss Musk" and "set him up for failure", while I thought it was reasonable. People thought the source was so bad - it was actually excellent - that they stopped reading at that point. Guess what? They did 300K in a week, as the article predicted.

This is the level of intelligence and understanding of the Musk fanboys.

Quote:
Also, you're as much of a hater as I'm a nuthugger, so what's there to complain about?
The difference is that I'm here to trade the stock and get long and short. You're here to...defend your boyfriend?

The sources are relevant because they move stocks. Model X production problem rumors circulated on exactly these sources for weeks before it was reflected in the stock dropping by 30%. As did reports of Tesla cars on fire that tanked it a couple of years ago.

This stuff is relevant to trading. You don't even know what you're doing, or have the heuristics to tell a good speculative source from a bad, so again, what's your angle? That it hurts your feelings because it makes your boyfriend look bad is irrelevant.

I don't have anything against Musk. He's a business talent, an energizer, and a charlatan and a fraud. Like a lot of business people who I like. However, the discrepancy between his carefully cultivated public image and the problems behind the scenes are very relevant to trading and investing.
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06-09-2016 , 01:56 PM
No, the criticism in here was that the source assumed that Tesla would do **** all with the money and just blow it on BS. That's what people said and the jury is still out.

Since I've started arguing with you about the Apple talent poaching the stock price has stood more or less flat. What are you trying to say? How do you think you've won?

I don't understand trading, you don't have a single clue about business or complex decision making, we're here to make respective points about the subjects of our expertise.
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06-09-2016 , 03:25 PM
TS has repeatedly shown that having a basic understanding of what a company does and is trying to do is totally immaterial to trading.

Also, he has claimed previously to be a tech options trader. Given the difficulty of shorting TSLA, I'd assume he's just been paper trading this and doesn't actually trade. Aside from the fact he claims to not actually trade underlying equity, but w/e.

I think the talk of how the business works etc to be rather interesting.
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06-09-2016 , 03:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
It's possible people have died due to faulty Teslas. We don't know.
This is quite a conclusion to jump to, even for you

I know for me www.dailykanban.com just became daily reading, what a source of information.
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06-09-2016 , 03:35 PM
Tesla tanking right now as this news is hitting mainstream. Easy money.
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06-09-2016 , 04:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Tesla tanking right now as this news is hitting mainstream. Easy money.
stock was heavy all day (I made some money with puts on it) but it absolutely tanked last 30 mins, was wondering why. and that suspension issue news is on Bloomberg now as well

Last edited by Wealth$; 06-09-2016 at 04:34 PM.
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06-10-2016 , 06:07 AM
TSLA responded Thursday night. Price action matters most to me and past couple days TSLA has been acting like it wants to head back down to low 200's

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/10/tesla...ing-order.html
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06-10-2016 , 10:30 AM
Tesla doesn't deny the secrecy deals. Tesla just calls them "Goodwill Agreement"

Just saying.
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06-10-2016 , 07:18 PM
Yeah they basically confirmed the text of the NDA.

They also claim it's just one person who had this problem/is pushing this, but it's pretty obviously many more if you look at the Tesla forum.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thre...s.69204/page-2

Scroll down on that page to see multiple pictures from long time forum regulars of problems with that same part showing major problems.

On another note, it's just a hilarious that a source that two people rubbished as conspiracy/ridiculous ended up being the catalyst for an NHTSA comment which tanked the stock the following day. Being ahead of this stuff - and knowing crap from not-crap out of the hundreds of things which do come up - is how you make good money.
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06-10-2016 , 08:41 PM
@ElonMusk

"NHTSA confirmed today that they found no safety concern with the Model S suspension and have no further need for data from us on this matter"

"Of greater concern: 37 of 40 suspension complaints to NHTSA were fraudulent, i.e. false location or vehicle identification numbers were used"

Interesting...
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06-11-2016 , 09:12 AM
Not sure what to make of that claim. Musk is clearly a liar. Here is his last lie about the NHTSA:

http://insideevs.com/nhtsa-tesla-did...s-cooperation/

I mean, this a bold-faced lie and there's no reason to make it except to spin desperately while his stock is tanking (this happened during the fires from road debris, which Musk also intimated was a non-issue for a while until the third fire from road debris, at which point he raised of the base of the car higher and added titanium plating).

The thread below is pretty definitive that there's a problem here of some kind. Lots of long time posters, not Tesla bashers, talking about the kind of problems that shouldn't happen in a car of this age. Particularly from post 40:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thre...s.69204/page-2

There's obviously a guy with an axe to grind, but the issue itself seems quite real. Perhaps it's confined to earlier builds now reaching a 1-3 years age. Perhaps it's a design flaw in the later ones. If companies like GM with decades of experience, large scale planning, and best-in-class supplier networks can get things very wrong at times, Tesla is far more likely to do so. And they're the kind of problems that will only come out with sufficient age and volume (GM's ultra-expensive switch recall for example was for a 1 in 300,000 death rate - which is 3x the number of cars Musk has put out so far in total!!).

The point being that the a) these things are likely, if not certain to happen as Tesla ramps up volume - the huge Model X problems being yet another example and b) Tesla simply isn't priced for the mess and cost and PR hit of an expensive recall.

It's worth keeping in mind if you think $40 billion represents a fair price for Tesla over the range of likely outcomes, or even a (lol) bargain.
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06-11-2016 , 10:55 AM
re: last 'lie' about the NHTSA;

the article you linked was quoting the director of the NHTSA in an article for the Detroit News. Someting seemed a little fishy to me, so I did some cursory research. Turns out that the director of the NHTSA is now a lobbyist for Venable LLP:

Quote:
Venable represents the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, the National Auto Auction Association, the National Automotive Finance Association, and other industry groups — and those are just the nonprofits, which are the only clients Venable lists publicly. Consumer Affairs notes that “Venable has billed $1.1 million for its services to Chrysler over the last five years.”
Of course I'm sure he was being totally objective excoriating Tesla in his role as NHTSA director; not unlike Darleen Drunyun was completely objective when she awarded the now infamous tanker contracts to Boeing.
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06-13-2016 , 01:16 PM
The Detroit News interviews people/reports about car-related topics, it's pretty standard. Given lots of previous Musk untruths/spin, I don't buy the NHTSA guy is lying. Particularly since carmakers asking for an investigation is simply not how it works.

As for the suspension issue, this article puts the needle well on the side of Musk's claims. It's an amusing read:

http://electrek.co/2016/06/13/tesla-...keef-wivaneff/
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06-14-2016 , 02:10 AM
I'm a huge Musk and Tesla fanboy(I ordered a MX recently even after seeing all the problems on TMC) and ToothSayer has been on both sides of Tesla and pretty pragmatic in general. If you read the forums there are tons of issues with the MX, particularly early builds. The front door issues are worse than the falcon wing doors at this point. Almost universally, everyone would buy again and love the car even with the issues. In most cases Tesla has taken care of customers and done right by them in the end. The same thing happened with the Model S. Tesla doesn't do things with the rigor of most car companies and they can't, being a new car company. My biggest fear with the stock is some catastrophic failure that they didn't see coming thst results in deaths and religiously watch the forums for signs of something like that. Second biggest fear is Misk dying.

I think most would be wise to hear what ToothSayer is saying, even if I think he's overly pessimistic. I think he underestimates the power of data network effects(see Matt Turck's post), the advantage Tesla has in software, and the companies ability to innovate. As long as Musk is in charge, they'll find ways to create compelling products and to push car manufacturers. I also think they'll figure out how to manufacture in volume and be a leader in innovation on this front over the long-run. They understand the M3 will have the same issues and have reserved the first ones for Tesla and SpAceX employees to figure out the issues.

I've been following the stock for a long time and Elon always telegraphs what is going to happen, if you really understand what he's saying. He's totally over optimistic and probably comes off a lunatic to most people but he thinks about problems and solutions in a way that I've never really seen anyone do. However, he has more info than anyone and his intentions are in the right place.
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06-14-2016 , 02:15 AM
Fwiw, I think the company is going to beat q2 production targets and delivery numbers but continue to be worried about a front door latch recall. There's a chance that they turn a profit in Q2 since capex hasn't ramped for M3 and depending on Tesla energy orders. My tact for the stock is buy it for the long haul but monitor the forums for anything catastrophic. In the long-term the thing that matters is large demand and really great products that customers love and the only thing that will kill the stock is quality affecting long-term demand and brand perception or some catastrophic failure that causes deaths and ties the company up in lawsuits.
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06-21-2016 , 05:59 PM
Holy crap I wish I was holding Tesla puts. This is awful.
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06-21-2016 , 06:07 PM
If you have two ongoing pump and dumps and one is working while the other is failing, use the winner to buy out the loser.
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06-21-2016 , 06:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Holy crap I wish I was holding Tesla puts. This is awful.
I'm not at all qualified to form an opinion on the matter. Having said that, yea, WTF? is the first thing that came to mind when I read the press release.
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06-21-2016 , 07:21 PM
They and their analysts will spin it as a synergy/Tesla the energy company/the only top-to-bottom "vertically integrated" energy company, etc, but it's all bull****. Who knows what the real reason is. Probably bailing out Musk and SCTY investors from a compnay that's about to fail - Musk seems to have nearly all paper wealth, as evidenced by some recent slyly publicized Tesla stock sales and his large stock-collateralized loans, and who knows what kind of margin call he's expecting as SCTY tanks.

Regardless, this will put a couple of hundred million/quarter of extra cash burn on Tesla's books.
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06-21-2016 , 08:38 PM
Ok so upgrade/offering to pay Elon's taxes with "strong demand" at $215/sh turns into another bull trap w/ this sham of a deal. The counter trend rallies can destroy you in this name, having said that the so called "cracks" became a lot deeper today.
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06-22-2016 , 12:31 AM
I am almost sure SCTY was going to go chap11. Too much debt. However, TSLA and SCTY belong together. When people buy an electric car they want to charge it at home. The cost to charge the car with solar is about 30 miles on average a day, at .31 kwh per mile. So you need a 2 kw system, which is nothing. SCTY can also design a DC solar charger that requires no connection to city grid in about 1 day.

SCTY also people in almost every mall. Thus they can sell a car or solar system at the same time. SCTY also has a gigafactory in the works in Buffalo.

FSLR should also team with SCTY. As people in apartment could remotely pay for their solar and they could also build TSLA solar RV parks where people can drive around the country and have plenty of power to recycle their wastewater to drinkable on the RV and only have to dispose of ash. TSLA Musk building RVs may actually end conventional homebuilding, thank god.
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06-22-2016 , 03:57 AM
This will make the haters mad but I must admit I don't think it's the right time to integrate the company. They should focus on the Model 3. But I'm sure Musk will make it work.
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