Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is warning of production risks associated with the Model 3, the mass-market sedan the electric car maker expects to begin building within the next 18 months.

"We have no experience to date in manufacturing vehicles at the high volumes that we anticipate for Model 3...and plans for the build out of our production facilities...and various aspects of component procurement and manufacturing plans have not yet been determined."

Tesla also cautioned that if one or more of its "many assumptions" turns out to be incorrect, its "ability to successfully launch on time and at volumes and prices that are profitable...may be materially and adversely impacted."

212.10 +3.41 (1.63%)
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lmao

I know the news services are reporting it, but it's a meaningless beat up. That's standard 10-Q warning language you'll see in any filing.

If Toyota is making over 10 million cars a year, why is it totally unbelievable that Tesla could eventually make 500,000 cars in a year?

It is due to the lithium battery supply or some other issue?

because it's not feasable to scale that fast whitout incurring in big lossess.

toyota is champion in efficency, tesla is not (as of today).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Production_System

if they were able to deliever 500k, they wouldn't come up short each time they had to deliever in the past.

I mean the other car companies are making millions of cars a year too. General Motors produced 9.7 million cars last year according to their website.

I would not consider General Motors a innovative company at all.

Toyota was a leader in the 80s with it's "Lean" technology, but are they really that innovative anymore?

Reaction videos to insane mode on the Tesla P85D on youtube are pretty funny.

"Cutting edge" SDC technology that's ahead of everyone, from Tesla:



Anyone who thinks Tesla is ahead of the game here, while making absurd mistakes like this (and following offramps on freeways rather than the road), has no idea IMO.

More or less of an idea than someone who rams their SDC into the side of a bus and loses their foremost expert to the competition?

Or are we talking about people who have the basis to hold an opinion that is not totally crazy (your view on cameras, or cwar thinking that they could relay the processing)?

I think you are quite mistaken about virtually everything regarding Tesla's underlying business and the entire field of AI.

This is what the manual says:
Tesla choose to use radar for long range detection. Unfortunately most radars filter out non dopler objects such as stationary cars. My guess is that the Autopilot version 2 will feature some front looking Lidar and/or a tri-focal camera.

Again, let's just stop and consider:

- How Tesla are far "ahead of competitors" and capturing all this "valuable data", and yet don't do basic object recognition

- How terrible Tesla's software and design team are that they can't even detect a large stationary object and stop in time, something that is standard on even low end collision avoidance systems, and has been solved for 15+ years in autonomous driving research.

Yet, Tesla fans think they're ahead of the competition (competition which is self-navigating through complex city traffic, not merely badly following the car in front and staying in well-marked lanes).

Any disinterested observer reading this knows you guys have no clue at this point.

As someone who sees you post a lot of good content, Tesla's technology capabilities(and other SDC tech) seem out of your realm of expertise

Another lawsuit mentioning TSLA's high tech, ahead-of-all-manufacturers-who've-been-researching-this-for-decades, responsibly released "autopilot":
The software is very obviously a joke.

- The summon feature runs into a parked truck after being accidentally pressed
- It can't even follow a simple, clearly marked road
- It randomly takes exit ramps rather than be capable of the simple task of staying on the highway
- It swerves into other lanes the rain (above)
- Its simplistic follow algorithms can't deal with the slightest perturbations (above), including being so bad at object detection it runs into parked trucks.

This is clearly advanced software ahead of the other automakers/SDC research! Tesla have a huge advantage here.

Anybody know the actual date of the secondary offering, interesting how tsla has rallied since that announcement

Some background for the links. Not apologizing for Tesla but they are a bit onesided otherwise.

The summon running into a parked truck, Tesla has claimed that the log from the accident tells a different story than the report. Obv they could be lying, but it could also be the customer lying.

The autopilot taking an offramp. This was in october 2015. Tesla uses fleet learning to learn which lane to follow, likely this same behavior would stop happening once 20 Teslas has driven on the road.

As for detecting parked trucks, that is a well known limitation of radar algorithms, which is used for long range detection. Tesla states this clearly in the manual.


Tesla has some advantages and seems to be the leader when it comes to features sold on the market today. That being said they are not perfect and some other manufacturers are better at some things. Like Volvo's City Safe which uses Lidar is likely be much better at detecting stationary object at higher speeds.

I'm genuinely curious if TS will acknowledge the point about radar and backtrack on his prior comments or if he will pretend the radar is useless and just keep randomly saying stuff.

Yes, of course. I agree.

What I have trouble with is the inferences drawn from this statement. Firstly, that this means they are actually ahead on self driving technology research, which is absurd. They are far behind if you look what others have in the labs.

Secondly, that this is anything other than something they can get away with because of tiny size and rich, intelligent, first adopter customers. If GM or BMW put this tech in their cars, in the state its in, it would be completely unacceptable. Cars that lurch across lanes so dangerously, or that run into stationary objects which attempting to follow the car in front, or that swerve suddenly or follow exit ramps (which they still do, by the way), would be unacceptable and worthy of lawsuits.

Thirdly, I think it's obvious that Tesla has done a horrible job on this. The kind of mistakes their cars make should not happen with a competent software team. It's obvious that the only thing they've programmed is simplistic lane following when the lanes are clearly marked, simplistic car-in-front following (with apparently zero safety programming for boundary cases), and so on. This is so far from even the beginning of autonomous driving research, let alone today's state of the art. Their software is a joke. There are enough incidents now that show how juvenile and simplistic their software is.

And yet people in this thread (and Tesla PR) believe that they're ahead of others. They are clearly far behind. Hundreds of test cars from a number of manufacturers are successfully self driving around complex inner city traffic. This is 5+ years ahead of anything that Tesla can do, even if they had the research budget to do it.

And finally, the idea that Tesla is learning anything from the uploaded data on their current set of sensors is just farcical. NVidia have deep learning, ultra high bandwidth, multi camera solutions driven by Drive PX2 that is light years ahead of Tesla. It's in a different class. Tesla have zero advantage in autonomous driving and are in fact far, far behind.

That's all. The fact that smart people are disagreeing with me on something that's obvious and correct is just mind blowing. You've been fooled by PR, people.

We don't know what Tesla have in their labs.

The other car manufacturers has similar products on the market which most tests seem to agree are "worse".

They claim that their software reduce the number of accidents by 50% when it is activated. That's some amazing numbers. And more impressively, when they started their software development, they were years/decades behind the competition. They deserve their credit. The future is still up for grabs though.

I assume you talk about Alphabet? They don't have production sensors in their cars which makes it a totally different problem. I have developed algorithms for both normal production Lidars and Velodyne HDL64E Lidars and they are not comparable.

Volvo will be selling 100 cars to actual customers which can drive autonomously Level4 on some highways next year. There are some other interesting self driving cars out on the street. Mobileye has their own, some German companies have their own, nVidia are making a lot of noise. But it is one thing demoing something on one specific road and a different beast to sell a product to customers who go out driving everywhere all the time.

Clearly they are learning something, their customers are reporting improved behavior over time.

We don't really know what nVidia has. I assume you talk about Davenet? That was just some shaky autosteer. Still really cool, but far from being a product.

Thanks for the compliment

This is mindblowing. You are talking out of your ass.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genera...switch_recalls
124 deaths

You must be nuts (well I think you are just uninformed about the Automotive industry) to actually believe the bull**** you are spewing.


And you must reply with the number of deaths caused by Tesla's autopilot as well as the percentage you were off with your original estimation.

just looked it up, TSLA's secondary offering was completed this week. Musk sold some of his stake on the 25th for about $600mm

http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/0...-offering.aspx

Is Musk selling $600mm of his shares a red flag?

He sold them to pay his taxes.
http://electrek.co/2016/05/27/elon-m...-stock-option/

More smoke and mirrors from Enron Musk! Trying to distract us from the fact his cars still can't drive themselves and he still can't make any money selling them. Sad!

Indeed. And now reports of major defects and non disclosure agreements.

http://dailykanban.com/2016/06/tesla...crime-coverup/

Gotta love those conspiracy blog entries. Where do you find those sources?

The Tesla owners forum. Actual pictures. etc. The same guys who exposed Valeant/Phillidor are digging into this. Lawsuits are being prepared. Did you even read the sources??

It's possible people have died due to faulty Teslas. We don't know. For now the law of small numbers has been in play (and rich owners who are happy with defects/Tesla stock owners/want Tesla to succeed/apparently forced to sign NDAs), so a lot of this hasn't come out yet.

There's a lot that can go wrong with an under-budgeted, inexperienced car maker with a truth-shy owner, and Tesla isn't priced for it.

Why do you even post here? You don't even read the sources. You don't trade, and come here solely to nut-hug Musk.