If the inside evs number is correct the tslaq Twitter guys were wayyyyyyy off

ya that's wild. tslaq is watching california, colorado, texas DCs and were off by like ~5k cars. where were those ***** cars sold? could be some deliveries from june registered in july? or could be don't bet against elon etc etc he da GOAT lol shorty

Spoiler alert: its not correct.

Remember they tried to smooth things out in Q1 by overreporting Jan/Feb and then underreporting March to make it square up.

They have no independent data. Its just what Elon tells them to report.

6k was the max that SGF reported. It wasn't near that far off in january was it ?

MDR deliveries observed were 281 far above January/February levels.

I think 8-10k is a reasonable July delivery estimate.

8-10k is higher than i would have hoped but i'll take it.

Everyone I saw was showing below Jan Feb levels.

13k is high enough to rethink how bad the demand problem is (though obviously the price cuts again will make a bigger loss and confirms there is some sort of demand problem).

https://twitter.com/BradMunchen/stat...48591833128960

Inside EVs barely manipulated jan and feb numbers.

Something is up.

Two separate issues.

1. Changing the numebrs retroactively when they are way far off.
2. Leaving the numbers for first two months as they are and squaring up by fudging month 3.

Pretty clear that March was way higher and Jan/Feb way lower in Q1 than InsideEVs reported (even with their amendments.)

https://electrek.co/2019/08/01/tesla...ot-semi-truck/

Tesla faces wrongful death lawsuit over fatal crash on Autopilot with semi-truck

Ahhhhhh. Interesting.


Tesla charts is on them:
https://mobile.twitter.com/TESLAchar...94684533186560

From 10/18.

Tesla charts got someone from inside evs to respond on twitter and it's looking like inside evs method is garbage

Bloomberg used to have a tracker, but they stopped since international made VIN reporting unreliable.

The Bloomberg tracker was unreliable/pure shilling long before international came into play. One quarter they even straight up made up numbers for the following weeks to even everything out after the delivery report came out way lower than the tracker, then touted their accuracy later on after this huge alteration.

As for InsideEVs, I think the numbers are probably ok. Musk claimed on the conference call that this quarter is tracking ahead of Q2 in North America. I believe him.

He doesn't tend to lie about delivery numbers. Interesting though, where are all the cars going? Anyone know what % price dropped at start of quarter?

Zach said a couple times that order rates are trending higher. But that could include UK and other markets that are newly opened up- its not clear and Tesla tends to be deceptive in these types of statements comparing apples to oranges.

Regarding the US specifically Zach said "we haven't seen a significant impact on US-based orders as a result of the step down..."

What constitutes significant? Doesn't sound as confident as more broad statements about orders worldwide. Also per Troy Teslike's tracker US orders appeared to have slowed down in June (this is similar to what happened previously- orders stopped in December as people didn't want to push too close to the deadline) so maybe there isn't a decline in July compared to June but there certainly was an impact. You have to understand the difference between orders and deliveries. For Q3 June-August are the important months for orders not July-September.

compare to ICE vehicle @ 60 cents per mile, average 12,000 miles per year = $7,200 per year discount

more as miles increase

how can anyone compete with this?

I shouldn't be responding to an obvious troll, but I'm in a good mood.

1) They are losing money and they have to give away stuff to sell cars

2) For the majority of people, any gas savings is more than offset by the increased insurance premiums.

1. Their long-term view and heavy investment in R&D has potential to generate outsized profits. By all means sweat quarterly results if it tickles your fancy, but it seems like a fools errand. You can construct bear cases with a long-term view, too, fwiw, which would be more convincing than [x] quarterly figures imo.

2. The model S had an average annual insurance premium of $3,300 in 2018. The average person drives 12,000 miles at $0.60 per mile. Do the math.

Also, the relevant amount of insurance is the difference between an alternative vehicle that is cheaper to insure, not the total amount.

In other words, no, your story does not check out, buying a Tesla is basically printing money.

Even ToothSayer has turned bullish apparently and now loves Musk.

It's one thing being such a dumbass that even my haters say I'm kicking your ass, but now you're straight up making **** up. Tesla spends next to nothing on R&D compared to any other carmaker or research outfit, especially once you strip out the basic model building stuff that they inappropriately put into R&D.

14 years of massive losses seems pretty compelling, especially after promises/claims from the liar and fraud Elon Musk that:

- They'd be profitable every quarter going forward made in 2013,14,15,16,17,18,19
- No more raises in 14,15,16,17,18

And those massive losses are while having a large high end monopoly on performance electric sports cars with large margins. It only gets uglier as competition increases and prices decrease.

Paying $40K-$90K for a sedan that rapidly loses half its value is "printing money"? Are you high?

I'm not a bear or a bull, I'm a fact and evidence based. Which is why I liked it long at $190. And why I liked it short in the $300s.

Long term Tesla has no future. They have a toxic culture emanating from the loser CEO, have lost most of their talent, and lost more than $10 billion while they had a monopoly and large subsidies. Their CEO is a liar and fraud and real piece of **** besides. Their brand has gone from the top of rankings to the bottom in the last year alone, because their CEO is so stupid and unable to comprehend basic engineering that he thought he could robotize his entire lines, and ended up desperately making cars by hand in a tent 1980s style, with typical quality results. And then is so incompetent he can't organize timely service while outputting 5% of the volume of a major car company. This doesn't end well for them.

Their R&D spending is enormous. Are you on crack?

To lurkers who aren’t sure who to believe:

Google spent 13x as much as Tesla in R&D last quarter.

Also to lurkers:

Very little of the supposed 60 cents per mile (not a real number) costs consists of gasoline despacito is trying to deceive.

Model S has high costs to repair and maintain.

You dumb clown. $323 million a quarter - while dropping $68 million in R&D isn't "enormous". WTF is wrong with you? Tesla have SolarCity, a battery factory, car lines, and "autonomous driving research", all of which require high R&D spend to get anywhere, particularly the manufacturing which chews up R&D...and they spent a minuscule $323 million last quarter. That's shockingly low and shows almost no R&D, as Tesla also put general costs into R&D. For example, the high cost of prototyping and testing the Model 3 is included in R&D, much of which is a standard cost associated with making a car and doesn't advance technology. For comparison, Ford spent $8.2 billion on R&D last year and accounts for R&D more conservatively (it's actual R&D rather than car lines counted as R&D).

Yeah, Uber alone spent $1.5 billion in R&D
Uber is spending more on R&D than Tesla. Uber, who do zero manufacturing.

Descapito is just a liar or an idiot, probably a bit of both.

Today's average for a gallon of gas in the US is 2.71. Most cars that Teslas compete with get better than 4.5 miles per gallon. Although I guess I forgot about oil changes, so maybe you're right—a couple oil changes might add another $6,000.