Bagholder Quotes is going nuts rn.

https://www.theverge.com/2019/7/24/2...-stepping-down

Tesla’s longtime CTO is stepping down

Spend infinite inventing new technology that will print money if it works --> lose money

Focusing (only) on quarterly profit is a mistake.

Winners think long-term.

Hey guys!

Numbers were worse than I expected, but not terrible.

The good: $5B on hand, 10k/week end of 2019 target, 20% margins, 30% when/if FSD is released(2019Q4 US goal & EU later), robotaxi race not over yet, plans for 2TWh(!) of batteries. Next year FCA deal should make them bleed even slower. With $5B and bleeding ”only” $130M/months and seeming able to raise capital, I expect we will still be disagreeing for a few more quarters if Tesla is cracking or not.

The bad: still bleeding cash, S/X cashcow has lost 30% demand likely due to cannibalization from 3.

Don’t care about: someone was wrong on forward looking statements

This chart might be cherry picked but it removes some of the seasonality:


Once Y is up and running I expect the FCF to finally exceed capital expenditures and I still see robotaxi as an out. So I stay long

Imo this presentation was interesting:
https://slideslive.com/38917690/mult...the-wilderness
From Elon’s tweets it seems they are waiting legal approval(2019Q4) to release this new beast of a network to the public. This networked leaked previously, see this post for details, but now we finally get to see how it is supposed to look. Once out I expect large improvements on all computer vision tasks. If this is enough for supervised FSD or not we will see, demo day seems to indicate that it could be.

Need to see the full 10Q, but figures aren't that bad?
Unless they did some ****ery somewhere, actual positive FCF. Fair WC management as well. If FCF & WC are under control bottom line losses can go on for a long time before a company is in trouble. I agree all the price cuts & weak S/X demand are still bad signals, tho.

But whenever you expect Tesla valuation to be corrected towards a normal valuation, aint going to be this quarter. Believers will love these results & will keep the price high. Unless they ****ed something up during the conference call (did not listen). CTO stepping out is also bad but standard at this point.

So you held all the way down to $180 after fully believing Elon at $370 with the $420 "funding secured" fraud?

Why have you not learned from that episode? Why do you still believe Musk's lies? It boggles the mind. I guess a cult is a cult and you think you're smart so you're not inclined to see your own descapito-level logical flaws.
This is not a rational take. I took you at your word that you work in autonomous driving when we had this discussion years ago (that you lost horribly, once again stupidly believing Elon rather than looking at the mountains of evidence against your position). But there is zero chance Tesla will have "supervised fully self driving" (whatever the **** that means?) any time in the next time three years. That you think otherwise makes me think you're either lying about working in autonomous driving, work for Tesla, or are not sane.

No Tesla quarter is awesome, but what about bankruptcy? How far away is that? Next quarter?

If Tesla increases deliveries yet again this quarter, then I think the other car companies are in big trouble.

i don't know if you want to call this ****ery but:
- their capex is 150-250m below their own projected runrate
- they sold off 450m of inventory
- their accrued liabilities are up 350m
how long is that sustainable?

i don't know. how long will people like you be willing to set their money on fire? you're the best bankruptcy indicator in here we got.

They are trying to reach profitability through financing and they don't have the margins without FSD, which is 10+ years out. It's why he's pumping FSD now.

They will always be "just one quarter away" with profitability forever looming. The donkey to the carrot image is more and more appropriate every day

Awesome.

Why is Musk not just delivering some ****ty features of FSD (like parking lot summon) and then announce he's fulfilled FSD, recognizing revenue and then convincing everyone to continue to buy it for the ****ty novelty features he continues to deliver to hide the fact that it will never be actual FSD?

Seems like something he would definitely do when his back is against the wall (if it's not already).

Not sure if I should waste my time but sure I will humor you this time. I told you before, I am here to discuss Tesla, not your obsession which seems to be other people in this thread.

Supervised means that it requires supervision while active. FSD means that it will drive from point A to point B in most situations without driver intervention. Thus not a taxi service, but greatly decreasing the amount of driving the driver has to do.

FWIW I held bitcoin from $265 to $50 and ether from $30 to $11 with people like you telling me I was mad over and over again. It did not convince me then and it won’t convince me this time either so unless you will be more concrete and focus less in your posts on me you are wasting your time. We will see who is right this time, stock was up 1000%, down 50%, up 50% now down 14%. Short term swings will not decide if the bulls or bears where right so lets not call winners yet. Let’s wait for a $0 or a $1T market cap and then give hats off to the side which was right.

Can we assume Tesla management has a better idea on where things are heading than either you or Tooth? How does your narrative explain everyone jumping ship recently?

Not surprising that getting lucky in the biggest ponzi of all time would foster this mentality

I'm sure they will if they can ever get it to actually work.

It's completely fascinating that you were totally conned by pure lies from Elon Musk, believed him wholeheartedly, and lost 50% in the process, and yet you continue to believe.

This is so absurdly imprecise I highly doubt you work in self driving. WTF? Level 3? Level 4? Which "areas"? In inner cities? This is a completely meaningless comment.

I'm not telling you you're mad to hold, I'm telling you that were balls-out conned, Musk has the lowest accuracy on Tesla predictions of anyone alive I think (and he's the CEO!), his autonomous driving in 2020 claims are pure bull****, yet you still continue to believe there's a good chance.

What's fascinating is why. It's fascinating because it's representative of quite a few bulls. The evidence is overwhelming that Musk is a conman with a horrible track record of lies and fake predictions, yet you still listen to what comes out of his mouth, even when the predictions are self-evidently absurd.

I'm glad bitcoin is doing well and making you money, you need it to offset your massive losses in Tesla from believing in Musk rather than looking at the evidence (which I kindly laid out for you in detail - you're welcome).

As for why I talk about people, we talked about ideas for a long time, you got completely owned (yours were all wrong), but you're too stubborn or stupid to admit that your ideas and projections were farcically wrong, over and over (not just once or twice). You failed to grasp very basic things about reality and trading. That should be instructive.
I've been extremely concrete and detailed on why Tesla's FSD strategy is comically bad and has no chance of working as autonomous robotaxis (or even safe level 3) in 2020 or 2025. You choose to ignore all that.

The reality is you don't like me mentioning it because what I say is true and your track record of swallowing Musk lies and projections is highly embarrassing if you're an overproud clown (normal people would welcome such criticism)

If Q3 delivers 75k on even lower ASP, prediction on where stock is at EOY?

I wonder if ASP won't go up.The mix might get slightly better because they aren't entering as big of markets with M3 and they aren't going to sell off inventory as much.

If FSD requires supervision then it's not FSD

Is paying attention to your surroundings to make sure autopilot doesn't kill you really that much easier than just driving? I probably enjoy driving more than most, but I really don't see the appeal

glorified lane assist + adaptive cruise control has no appeal.

I'll just take my adaptive cruise control and enjoy that until there is a real FSD option.

It's actually a much more difficult task, especially if you're tired. As autopilot eventually transitions from requiring intervention nearly constantly to being relatively autonomous in certain situations, we're going to see increasing accidents with increasingly dire consequences as driver complacency becomes the norm. The cult nuthuggers will always always blame the driver and Elon will continue to claim its safer than a human driver when comparing highway miles to city miles with ancient shytboxes. The results are going to be really interesting if FSD ever gets to a stage where it doesn't require regular intervention.

No, it won't. Tesla isn't even claiming that.

Zach said on call that improvements in mix would offset some of the price decreases (some, not all.)

Remember this chart?




At least this time there is no extrapolation line drawn on the chart even though its implied.

Lets see how clean that exponential growth looks after Q3.

the cash flow stuff is robbing peter to pay paul.

At some point that's going to come home to roost and they are going to see massive negative cash flow. I'm betting next Q.

eu-evs: why is norway sales fallen off a cliff but netherlands and spain stronger than last q?