I'm starting to think descapito works in the cafeteria at Tesla. Would explain the starry-eyed Elon love and the claim that he's talked to "many" FSD engineers, a majority of whom think Tesla's strategy is the best.

It's despacito you stupid ****.

Watch it twice:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoYgCg6i9C8

You seem angry bro. Why is it all the losers who give advice can't take it? Maybe listen to yourself?
The stupid ****, as you so intelligently put it, is the guy who believes that this guy will have autonomous driving "feature complete" in 6 months when he can't even reliably make it back out of a garage:

Elon Musk said a Tesla could drive itself across the country by 2018. One just crashed backing out of a garage.
It's 10 months later and still no progress on this simple task of advanced summon in the parking lot/garage, let alone driving itself across the country as promised. The absolutel assclown who claimed you could summon a Tesla across the entire country and have the car drive itself to you just admitted that parking lots at 5 miles/hour are a hard problem still not solved. You think he's going to solve ALL TRAFFIC SITUATIONS in 12 months? lol @ you.

Why would anyone sane believe a word this liar and fraud says given his track record of 100% failure in autonomous driving predictions? You have to be seriously gone in the head to think that.

Tooth,


Only a few more crashes and it will learn not to do that. Then we're all set!

They've only missed, what, 99% of any deadline promised.

Basically a lock that they roll out FSD in 18 months, right?

Slight uptick in deliveries? I'm going to be watching deliveries closely especially if they somehow turn a profit/break even this quarter like people are speculating. Though average estimate seems to be 300M loss.

Prices for the 3 haven't been cut all that much:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=658772374

You actually linked to the Justin Bieber version? Come on man the JB version is trash.

Tesla has certainly driven innovation in certain aspects, but your claim is ridiculous. Car manufacturers are consistently going through massive innovation cycles, the difference is that other players have a more conservative approach wrt to implementing innovation because they have an actually sustainable business model. Tesla's biggest achievement is probably creating (1) a faster timeline for EV adoption (which is a valid achievement, not trying to knock it) and (2) creating a really attractive brand for people in love with technology & innovation. I think a lot of Tesla's "innovation" are just bells & whistles though, stupid updates get way too much attention.

Elon Musk is very open in his communication wrt Tesla's technology, why do you think this is not at all reflected in what we have been presented wrt Tesla's FSD? We have seen zero proof that the technology is "not 100% ready but close".

I'm a skeptic but I'm open to being proven wrong. I think AI/self learning-based FSD is a long shot in the next 5 years. The majority of succesful AI technology we've seen has all been in very controlled environments. Our roads & traffic is not that.

Irrelevant to the point I'm making. Everyone steals, the Chinese just really make an effort to steal as much as possible/

Because nobody who ever does it thinks they're going to get caught?
Wrt Tesla, I hope that's right but perception is different.

Yes you're right, I was just making the point that it's impossible that you are 100% certain about your claims, while you are portraying yourself as if you are.

despacito isn't here to engage in good faith.

He is here to put a certain narrative out there for those that are already predisposed to believe Elon Musk and his fantastic lies.

This thread was way too negative. Somebody noticed.

Billions of views and only Japanese and Spanish subtitles? what the...

So if you're just going on deliveries and ASP, it seems like they should be break even at best, but you never know.

What I'm curious about is when we start to see all these liabilities that they supposedly aren't accounting for coming through? Warranties, lawsuits, etc?

https://twitter.com/covfefecapital?lang=en

We all already guessed that it was the case, but this is the first news article to actually address the manufacturing quality:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/15/tesl...l-3-goals.html

However, bulls will simply see it as being a new manufacturing paradigm worthy of a gap up, FOMO panic buy at the open tomorrow.

I saw one estimate that was basically breakeven and it looked optimistic as all hell. I'm guessing it's about 250mm loss, with last quarter numbers being the absolute worst case scenario and -100mm being the best.

It's an open air sweatshop where the product is literary held together with tape. Are we still betting about robotaxi delivery dates?

This is great mori****a.
"Not fully automated" is quite the understatement. It's 100% 1970s style manual assembly.

So far we have:

- Production hell
- Delivery hell
- Parking lot autonomous driving hell
- Service hell
- Gigatent working conditions hell
- Most key staff leaving

Other car companies solve and prevent these problems on a far larger scale, but Musk struggles with them for some reason.

Nothing surprising in that article.

But Tesla did claim their production is improving as measured by first-pass yields.

Increases the risk of upside surprise for Q2 earnings IMO.

The discounting they did, and the resulting loss of margin is >>> any efficiency improvements. Rapidly falling ASPs even without discounting were inevitable as the high end was produced first and exhausted, and the cheaper versions came out with lower or negative margins.

The biggest effect of all the loss of the Model S/X both sales and margins. They dropped price 40K euro all across Europe, about 1/3 of the cost. That's profit straight off the top for cars produced on mature lines and sold at high prices (3x a Model 3).

Let's not forget this massive drop only happened closer to the end of Q1; Q1 financials don't fully cover this disaster. Q2 has a full quarter of Model S/X demand death and profit death.

They're giving up (conservatively) about $20K per car x 25K S/X cars (compared to previous quarters) which is half a billion dollars straight off the bottom line in one quarter - for a company that is already not profitable even at 40k euro/car higher. They get back $200 million in the Fiat arrangement, which is still a $300 million hole to start with.

If Musk actually delivers Robotaxis within 18 months, it means Tesla solves some incredibly difficult problems (depth perception with just images for example) that could fundamentally change the way some products interact with us. If nothing else, the technologies necessary to make Robotaxis work would also enable a lot of moonshot projects currently in the pipeline.

Viable depth perception and image recognition in a combo alone would make Google glass indispensable in a whole lot of fields. A surgeon for example could wear AR glasses overlaying a HUD on the area he’s operating on to keep track of patients vital stats without taking his/her eyes off the patient.

With the ability to perceive depth and objects without expensive LIDARs, drone delivery would also be way easier. (Defined path in relatively i crowded air space having to only avoid poles and electric lines and so on.)

Robotaxis alone support valuation well north of 1000 a share. Throw the adjacent industries in and were looking at a software company worth probably a trillion dollars with a car company worth 250billion or so attached to it.

It’s a pipe dream. Musk has a non zero chance, and probably better chance than anyone else in the field just because he’s attracting the best engineers in the world and working them 24/7 with hundreds of thousands of willing beta testers/guinea pigs but we’re still talking about sub 1% chance Musk pulls off Robotaxis in 18 months.

I think a near best case scenario is Tesla actually does make major advances in image processing algorithms that allows Tesla to extract significant amount of data that LIDAR is designed to collect.

No. The chance is absolutely zero. If you want to quibble about that philosophically, it's the same chance that my 5 year old nephew will solve autonomous driving.
The people he put up to talk at autonomous investor day were certainly not the best engineers in the world. His main guy was some idiot academic from Stanford whose solution to all problems including driving strategy was "we'll just machine learn it"! It was an embarrassment. They're incompetent and a good portion of their team just quit due to Musk's demands and interference.

Looking at the team's prior work, it is highly incompetent, so from where do you get the idea that they attract "the best engineers in the world"? Their autopilot software is horrible, making elementary dangerous mistakes in dozens of categories that well designed software would not make. I've catalogued these before so I won't do it again.

Citation needed. And how is Musk "working with them" a positive? He's a net drain. He's a toxic micromanager who doesn't understand basic engineering best practice or software who's ruined multiple projects with his stupid ideas and too-short timelines.

I also dispute that the cars out there now are any kind of beta testers. They're using level w on highways. How is that useful data? This idea of "hundreds of thousands of beta testers" is more pure Musk bull****.

lol

Your post above is why it pays to lie and exaggerate - even skeptical people will give a non-zero chance of things that are zero, because you put it out there and they apply their imagination/bad reasoning to what you put out there.

Why was there no mention of the massive Jaguar i-Pace and Audi e-tron recalls?

It doesn't seem to be that easy to get this right. Also, the i-Pace recall was similar to what Tesla did over the air.

Audi with a potential fire hazard.

Somehow, the bears plan for existing manufacturers to take over fails when they actually start to ship the cars.

because these companies are actually profitable.

Qué?

model 3 price cuts today

Why would you need automated depth perception to overlay a HUD of vital stats for a surgeon?

There are several companies already building AR for surgery, and at least one has used their product during actual surgeries.