https://youtu.be/tlThdr3O5Qo



I get you. Even if we accept the premise of your question (that such a recall would bankrupt Tesla), it's still meaningless unless you assign probabilities.

A worst case recall that happens 1/1^E+3000 in a bazillion runouts isn't that important.

I assume you'd agree on this - it doesn't seem contentious.

EDIT: I think you should price that risk but asking about the worst case scenario only without factoring in other scenarios, and probabilities, and costs, is pointless.

I'd say the likelihood of untested hardware, installed in cars before the software is complete, to solve an as of yet unsolved problem, in a way that most engineers believe isn't possible, has a pretty damn high chance of failure.

If this accurately described Tesla I would agree with you but it does not.

Good question. Maybe it's ridiculously expensive and doesn't scale, or simply not good enough to pass muster with US regulations. But ultimately I don't think the A8 is super relevant. In a best case scenario Audi might be ready to compete in 2030 by which time it will be well and truly too late.

Directly from the horse's mouth:

Their engineering team is outstanding (in spite of the hype surrounding a few people leaving/being fired recently) and I believe they'll get it done. They have also brought in some seasoned engineers from SpaceX to work on Autopilot recently which bodes well.

I think you're right. The A8 is a distraction.

There's currently no competitor to the Tesla of the near future.

Imo these are all true elements:
*untested hardware
*installed before software is ready
*software in development is an unsolved problem
*most engineers believe Tesla's way of solving the problem isn't the best (=other companies are using significantly different software & hardware solutions).

Please tell us which elements are incorrect?

despacito,

You're of the belief that there will be hundreds of thousands of robotaxis on the road within 18 months?

There are literally hundreds of thousands of Teslas on the road right now. This number is only increasing.

So I think what you're asking is: will FSD ship within 18 months?

My answer is yes.

It has been (and continues to be) extensively tested internally.

That is what testing means fwiw.

Also the chip designer is a consummate professional.

installed before software has shipped to consumers

(big difference, especially when the threshold for safety is so high here)

not sure what this means

I disagree most FSD engineers think that (have spoken to many). I do know some think that - but would not say a majority - and regardless a numerical minority that is correct will win vs a numerical majority that is wrong.

Other companies are poaching staff and stealing trade secrets and data from Tesla. A former Tesla employee has just admitted to doing that on behalf of a Chinese company. That says a lot about the perceived value in the industry of their FSD technology.

Disclaimer:

As I've said previously it's hard to value Tesla and I don't have a confident opinion on valuation atm. Do your own research.

You're being disingenuous. You know it means that they don't currently have software capable of full self driving. Musk himself just said they can't yet navigate parking lots. He said earlier this year that they hadn't even begun working on being able to navigate in snow.

Not at all. Software isn't a problem. It is designed to solve a problem. I'm confused by this question. Do I think the software is 100% complete and ready to ship? No.

(Edit: I updated post above with a video from April in response to your Q)

You believe that they'll have a fleet of, appreciating asset, robotaxis in less than 18 months, but you don't have an opinion on how that effects their valuation?

Winter is coming, do these ****cans work in the snow yet? Build quality like that of a kia from the 90's and cannot even get rated by consumer reports? How's that famous tesla qa doing these days? Still not allowed to work on your own car? has tesla ever acknowledged one of those beheadings is their fault, and not the drivers? Somebody is in here talking about how this company is going to deliver on the promises he made about robotaxis and level 5? I want in on that bet.

I think people should do their own research and form their own opinions.

I'm doing that. You should too. So should everyone.

There is a litany of opportunities and risks that can materialize to affect the price of TSLA stock positively or negatively.

Other companies are aiming to have production of FSD cars by 2020. I don't think the timeline is that aggressive or optimistic at all.

I think you mean the liar's mouth, not the horse's mouth? We know that Musk has previously claimed that Tesla cars had all the hardware for FSD. Later on he backtracked and said that earlier versions sold with FSD don't have the hardware for FSD.

So we have a provable history of this claim being false. In addition:

1. We have a provable history of Musk missing (often by years) even minor claims of improvements in even low level, simple autonomy features.

2. We have a history of Musk hugely underestimating technology difficulties and complexities, and making grand claims and timelines that fail to eventuate even years after he claimed. Examples:

- A Driverless Tesla Will Travel From L.A. to NYC by 2017, Says Musk
- Fully Self Driving features will begin to depart from enhanced autopilot in "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely" in January 2017...no difference whatsoever even now, still zero divergence. Even "enhanced autopilot" has added nothing in two years except turning off the warning for lane changing and making it automatic, at which point it turned straight into trucks because it can't see them.
- Musk claimed that he could outdo the majors on robotics, ignoring the advice of his team, claimed "air friction limited robots", "order of magnitude speed improvements" because they'll be moving so fast, that would fully robotize Model 3 production. He nearly destroyed his company having to then pull the robots out (which didn't work, as his entire team had advised him they couldn't), and started make cars by hand, 1980s style, in a tent.

3. We have a history of Musk directly, deliberately lying about the current state of production (claimed Model 3 production was online in August 2018, contradicated by 11 sworn witnesses in affadavits), and directly, deliberately lying in his projections (claimed 5000/week Model 3 by end of 2017; contradicted directly by his own January 2018 conference call).

4. Musk is also a known, proven liar and fraud, including large scale securities fraud.

The most interesting thing about all this is the psychology of a descapito, who believes the statements of a proven liar and fraud with a 100% failure rate on autonomous driving predictions.

My name is despacito and you're wrong - I don't uncritically accept everything anyone says.

This is the only thing of substance in your post. Tesla acknowledged excessive automation (in the production process) was a mistake and moved on. You should try it.

You have repeatedly uncritically repeated pure Musk lies, then spent substantial time defending them against overwhelming evidence. You even tried to sophist away him baselessly calling a stranger a pedophile.

When it comes to Musk you both accept his claims uncritically AND white knight for him. It's so loserly. I get that everyone needs a hero but choose someone who's not a repeat liar and fraud, with a poor understanding of technology?
Um, no, all the claims in my post are substantive and goes to Musk's lies and credibility on autonomous driving and are backed up by multiple sources.
Why, because you're getting absolutely owned?

The only place that the claim of "1 million autonomous robotaxis in 2020" that you've stated you believe comes from is Musk. Examining his history of making claims and giving timelines in this space is instructive, and something you yourself would do if you were a rational person and not a brainwashed loser who uncritically accepts and repeats Musk's claims.

As such, you should be thanking me for laying out the clear rational evidence for you.

I did not do this. 100% false. You are a liar and a poster child for the specific breed (not all) of biased wacko and cult-like TSLA bears who will stop at nothing (including lying outright) to discredit people or facts that conflict with their confirmation bias.

The funding is secured. You are the weakest link. Goodbye.

The point is Musk is claiming that existing Teslas will be FSD-ready when he can't be 100% sure that that will be accurate since he isn't close to solving the problems.

There is not a single other car manufacturer that is claiming this. Why is that?

What does this mean? Do you think that the software is ready but in testing-phase, or something?


It means that Tesla (or the world, for that matter) hasn't figured out FSD yet, and we (the world) isn't even close yet.

1/ The Chinese steal everything they can get their hands on, it's not a good example to proof this.

2/ Poaching staff is standard in any environment, it's not proof of anything. It could even be the opposite of what you think, that employees are leaving Tesla because Tesla is behind and is not able to maintain its talent pool with other means.

3/ Of course you are right that a numerical majority can be wrong. But unless you are a top 1% FSD engineer, you are about as clueless as the rest of us, and we need to rely on sources we can trust to form an opinion. I was only pointing out that if you look at these sources, they are not even close to being favorable for Tesla.

That's not correct (others have claimed 2020).

But not a single other car manufacturer has a growth trajectory and culture of innovation that is in the same galaxy as Tesla.

Yes. Not 100% ready but close.

Tesla is close. Others are too. You're prob underestimating state of FSD tech. Most people do.

Also US companies. You can google lawsuits which are only a fraction of the picture.

True about poaching staff. But stealing trade secrets and data? Why expose your company to legal liability if the technology is inferior? Makes no sense.

I know for a fact the talent pool is outstanding (and not because I read about it in Bloomberg).

This is a false dichotomy: you're either a top 1% FSD engineer or you know nothing.

A false dilemma is a type of informal fallacy in which something is falsely claimed to be an "either/or" situation, when in fact there is at least one additional option. The false dilemma fallacy can also arise simply by accidental omission of additional options rather than by deliberate deception.

your posts are worthless and you have zero clue.

literally nothing in there about the company resembles the truth.
tesla can't do the basics that waymo and gm have solved for years.
the chances of you being right are literally 0.

go ahead, put your money where your mouth is.

the last guy who came in here clueless like you, told us one day after the 420-tweet was he was going to do with all his money.
wonder how that worked out.

I'm truly impressed this conversation has lasted so long.
He thinks FSD will be here on Tesla's approx timeline - nothing more to say.

But just for the fun of it, what would you put TSLA SP at if they brought out level 5 FSD in 18 months? $1000 min right?

before or after the massive recall that would follow when the thing parks itself in your living room on a snowy boston night?

He'd be better off working on and monetizing the simulator as tsla: the driving game and turning that into an esport than he is continuing on in the car biz.

Elon "bringing it out" and it actually working properly would be two completely different things. If the latter, $1k would be conservative.