Lidar is a great choice -- if you ignore cost and never go into production.

As on most topics, Musk is a very stupid person who can't think ahead, or else is a liar and a fraud. Lidar will come down to hundreds of dollars a camera quite readily; it's just a very low power laser with a processing chip that can be miniaturized. It's the same kind of problem that 5G is, which was recently miniaturized cheaply. Audi already uses it on their cars, creating a better product here than Tesla:

This Lidar Is So Cheap It Could Make Self-Driving a Reality
By the way, Audi has level 3 in production cars using Lidar, which is far ahead of Musk's incompetent cuckshow.

The 2019 Audi A8 Is a Self-Driving Dream (Despite U.S. Restrictions)
Musk is either lying or incompetent again. Par for the course with this loser really. There's now a unit that costs just $500:
Seriously, you need to stop listening to the loser, liar and fraud Elon Musk - nearly everything he says is wrong or stupid. On autonomous driving he has the worst track record of predictions of anyone ever. Why would you listen to anything this clown says?

@tooth re: turning off hard cases:
you know as well as i do, that that's not what tesla is selling and the buyers think they are getting.

obviously lidar solves it, which is why tesla won't.

This is from the same article (which you apparently did not read)...

LOL

SAD!

So the fact that this all takes time tells you you're winning the argument? That should stop you in your tracks right there. Musk says he is training his cars like seeing eye dogs and they'll be ready in months. Are you sober?

Can you read?

Me: Lidar is cost prohibitive and not yet suitable for production use.

Tooth: There's a unit that costs $500!

Also Tooth: It won't be ready until 2022 or 2023 (for highways?).

There's no question I won that argument. Although a lot of credit should go to Tooth for showing he has zero credibility.

Um, moron, this isn't for the sensors themselves. It's for the this particular company integrating with their particular partners on a large scale. The point is that the tech can miniaturized and the cost brought right down. No one doubts this. Besides, you said this:
It's literally in production cars right now. Nice self-owning there, dickhead.

I mean, did you miss the bit where Audi already has Lidar in production cars? They're not doing that at $75,000 a unit.

You: wrong yet again because you uncritically parroted the liar, moron and fraud, Elon Musk.

You think you win the argument saying this:
When Lidar is literally in a production car right now and outdoes Tesla's autopilot on its first go, and it's a certainty that costs are going to fall drastically?

Like I said:
You just keep coming back to prove the bolded true.

North Korean newspapers have more credibility than you

2023 is effectively never. Let's check back in when that startup is busto and all the VCs who fomo bought into trash LIDAR startups by pattern matching with their MBA classmates are scratching their heads wondering why it didn't pan out.

Are you talking about the Europe-only A8?

FAIL!

Miniaturized cheap Lidar is a solvable problem on par with 5G. This is just one maker; there are multiple makers of Lidar and the cost isn't high at all. You can buy $799 lidar units from DJI, for example, that go on self-navigating drones. That's a huge drop from 10s of thousands of dollars just two years ago, and the drop will continue rapidly. Google and other car makers have their own lidar production companies already. I'd guess the cost is down to a few thousand per car at this point and will keep dropping rapidly.
What does Europe-only have to do with debunking your wrong and ridiculous claim that Lidar will NEVER be put into production? There are legal barriers in the US; level 2 is as high as you can go without running into issues. It's not only been put into production - in contrast to your moron claim that
- but is actually already so cheap that it has been incorporated in existing for-profit cars. And it achieves a level of autonomy and reliability so high that Audi is voluntarily taking full responsible for any accidents that are the fault of the car when it's in autonomous mode.

The cuck Musk is wrong about the cost of lidar. I mean, that's proven at this point. You're a cult-like moron for uncritically parroting him again and again, even though he's a known liar and fraud. The end.

brb, just hopping on my miniaturized drone to head down to the shops! Vastly superior to the Tesla Model S. Also cheap and fits in a shoe box!

WEEEEEEE HAHAHAHA

(this would make a great kickstarter campaign though, I would snap support you)

You might be right about the cost curve but stating it as a fact rather than a forward looking prediction about an uncertain future proves you're completely dishonest. If it takes too long for the cost to come down lidar loses by default. Timing is everything. Lidar is fighting for a chance to even start the race.

The point is Lidar is not yet mature enough to get through the regulatory hurdles so Audi pulled the hardware. The EU is rekt and being approved there is actually a huge red flag - try to have some standards.

Tesla's shipping with the hardware already and can update the software when it ships and has regulatory approvals.

For people in the US: you can have an A8 with a slow gas hungry ICE engine and only dream of the Lidar that isn't included, and pay 50% more. Or you can have a Tesla for a fraction of the price, with a fully electric motor, with FSD hardware included, and imminent software update for FSD. Tough choice!

gg

I'm not sure why I bother talking to you. Elon Musk basically direct downloads bull**** into your brain which you parrot as fact, so there's nothing new there. Then add a layer of worthless immature moron to that mess, and we've got your posts.

Again, already on a production car.
Good God you're a dickhead. It has nothing to do with lidar, it has to do with LEVEL 3 - which allows the driver to not pay attention to the car at all times. There's no regulatory framework in place in the US for that yet. Tesla is far less competent and so it's level 2, which is allowed in the US as it's pure driver assist requiring constant attention.

EU regulations are far more stringent than the US on most things by the way. Your claim that:
Just shows you up as more of a know-nothing dickhead who makes up whatever he wants to be true because it fits your Elon-love.

Yeah except now you're shifting the goalposts, which you do often when you get owned after saying something very stupid. I'm not claiming the A8 is competitive with Tesla; it's not even in the same category as what Tesla sells. I mentioned it to debunk your false moron claim that lidar will never go into production. It is already in the production and it's cheap enough to put into production; your claim is fully debunked.

I'm just going to stop talking to you. You're a moron and there's nothing to be gained in terms of insight or bull cases or even meaningful criticism. You're just a straight up dumbass Elon parrot with no critical thinking skills and no redeeming qualities.

I didn't say it will never go into production. I said Lidar is a great choice -- if you ignore cost and never go into production.

The flip side is: if you go into production it is a ****ing terrible choice.

The flaming train wreck that is the A8 is an excellent example of why that is the case, thanks for bringing it up!

You are failing to update your model of reality in relation to FSD sufficiently fast enough and instead elect to rely on a path dependent and outdated understanding that you want to be true.

The bubble around Lidar might be peak stupid for sv vc.

If you want to compare technology that actually works vs something that doesn't, than this is your first accurate statement. Let's build from there.

The A8 didn't ignore cost and is in production. You inability to acknowledge your proven mistake here is comical.

How is the A8 a "flaming train wreck"? Everything works just fine (better than Tesla), they just can't claim Level 3 in the US. It's about level 3 and has nothing to do with Lidar; Tesla would have the exact same problem if they wanted to push the notion that "you don't need to be attentive when driving", which is what level 3 means. It has nothing to do with lidar, you moron.

I've give you a C- to your attempt to sophist your way out of this. Tesla's trainwreck around FSD or even the incompetence/dangerousness of their autopilot software which slams people into trucks and barriers on the regular, while Google and Cruise/GM have autonomous robotaxis running in US cities, says everything that needs to be said about which strategy is the most viable.

The loser/liar Elon Musk just admitted that parking lots are hard, 8 months after promising the technology "in six weeks". Shows you how well they're going at getting beyond level 2 without lidar.

Your lowbrow attempt to white knight for this incompetent liar is comical.

A8 base price: $83,800 ***
Model S base price: $65,000.

*** Level 3 hardware not included

Case closed **** face.

(I've generously ignored the fact the S is vastly superior to the A8 in all respects AND costs less to run because it doesn't burn disgusting gas/diesel; let's also pretend the Model 3 doesn't exist at a much cheaper price point)

Tesla will be shipping FSD update within 12 months. Mark my words.

Also the A8 doesn't have level 3 hardware so you should have given up 3 posts ago.

They have pilots, you're deliberately overstating their scale. Nobody else has semi-autonomous at the same scale as Tesla.

You somehow excuse the failure of the A8 to ship the hardware and yet have your knickers in a twist about a minor delay in a software update from Tesla. News flash: the hardware is already shipping. Delaying the software until it is safe and thoroughly tested shows good judgment and integrity.

Without the software do we have any proof whatsoever that the hardware currently being shipped in Teslas will be capable of FSD? Elon saying it's so, in order to sell cars, is not proof fwiw.

No I do not.

However Tesla has a good record of providing free updates in such scenarios.

If in the worst case the hardware is defective or needs to be updated I believe they would have no choice but to eat the cost of updating all cars bought after that promise was made.

(and if I bought a Tesla in such a situation and FSD hardware didn't work I'd snap join a class action fwiw if Tesla didn't rectify)

Ok, cool. I just wanted to clarify that this entire thing is based on completely unproven hardware, and non existing software, coupled with Tesla's good record and Elon's promises.

As an aside, if Tesla were forced to recall all of their cars in order to rework the hardware for self driving, do you think that's viable, or would they likely become insolvent?

Please stop flaming each other. It makes you look like high school brats fighting about whose parents are richer.

I'm curious why the A8 is allowed to drive in Europe and not in USA? Generally speaking, Europe is way more restrictive wrt regulation & stuff?

Also @despactito:

1/ " Tesla will be shipping FSD update within 12 months. Mark my words."
Can you please define what you mean with "FSD update"? Because those are some big words depending on what you mean .

2/ "A8 base price: $83,800 *** Model S base price: $65,000.
*** Level 3 hardware not included"

I get your point, but A8 & Model S are 2 totally different cars for different audiences. I don't know if proof is out there, but am convinced that Audi makes way more money on the A8 than Tesla does on the Model S. Audi has way more pricing power than Tesla does.

If by unproven hardware you mean they haven't let anyone outside of Tesla use it, and by non existing software you mean it's not 100% complete and tested, sure.

This question is too general and attempting to give a general case would not be possible or meaningful.

There are various scenarios (ie. no defect, minor defect, major defect), each with different costs and difficulty to remedy (ranging from $0 and no difficulty through to enormous cost and full recall), and different % chance of occurring.

No one is comparing the Audi with Tesla. They're different classes of cars. The Audi was mentioned purely to debunk your claim (which you're too much of a coward to admit was false) that Lidar isn't viable for cost on cars. To which I responded: it's on a shipping Audi! You then tried to compare the different cars to deflect from the fact that you were comically wrong.

Here's the proper comparison. The 2016 Audi A8 which didn't have Lidar:

The 2019 with Lidar: $83800.

You've lost the debate. Lidar is on production cars RIGHT NOW and is incorporated for quite low cost. The end. Your claim is false.
I'd say the guy losing his marbles in a comment like the above, unable to admit he's wrong after being proven wrong, is the guy losing at life. Oh and the guy white knighting for a known liar and fraud, uncritically believing and parroting his claims.

Shall we mark your words with money? I'd gladly bet you, as would anyone here (you can get as much action as you like I'd say) that they won't have FSD on July 14, 2020 (meaning: level 4 or higher, and that's being generous to you since FSD is level 5, as are "autonomous robotaxis").

I don't understand. A8 is level 3 (driver is not required to pay attention; autonomous software handles all navigation and safety functions in allowed conditions) in production being sold in Europe. Tesla currently have level 2.

Tesla don't have "semi-autonomous", they have buggy unreliable driver assist on highways only.

The "pilots" are fleets of actual working cars, that public beta testers can hire anywhere to anywhere in the city in the case of google and that all employees can use anywhere to anywhere at any time in the case of Cruise/GM. Given that navigating inner city traffic is orders of magnitude harder than highway navigation, AND we have public data on disconnects (one per 12,000 miles and rapidly dropping; >90% caused by other drivers and mostly minor scratches), Google and GM have Tesla crushed by 5+ years. The end. Tesla aren't even testing anything above level 2 on public roads!
Minor delay? Something promised in 6 weeks and still not done 8 months later isn't a "minor delay". Particularly when the same guy who promised "6 weeks" for a simpler feature not completed 8 months later is now claiming "6 months" for having level 5 autonomy, something which far smarter people working for far longer with better tools (as you admit) and far more money haven't yet fully solved. You are whacked-out delusional thinking Musk can deliver level 5 autonomy in 1.5 years.

In an professional world such a "minor delay" - 6 weeks for a partial feature becoming 8 months and still nowhere near done - would have you fired. And Musk admitted even the simple case of a parking lot is still not solved and is "very hard". But there will be FSD in 12 months (feature complete in <6 months according to Musk, who has a perfect track record of failure on his FSD claims). That you believe this shows either a deep irrational cult love of Musk or an extremely low intelligence. Take your pick.

Is there any proof of FSD being tested in real case scenarios, or even existing as a beta tested product, within Tesla? If Tesla is so close that they're going to release it to the public within 12 months, there are surely leaked videos, leaked engineer emails, employees talking about how they've cracked the problem, work with legislators on regulation, or something? Anything?

It's actually a very specific question.

Why would Tesla have to recall every fsd car if there was no defect?

A scenario where Tesla has to recall every car ewuipped with fsd hardware would surely bankrupt them, regardless of the severity of the recall, wouldn't it?

You are desperately clinging to a single edge case, which even if true, proves nothing and does not invalidate my point: that Lidar is a terrible choice unless you ignoring production constraints and costs. As for the A8 Audi clearly had margin to play with.

Please don't ask me this again, I'd rather not go there, for your sake.

Inaccurate. Tesla already shipping the hardware.

Are we okay with ignoring how hard it is to reach full-scale factory production and ignore the fact no one else has done it in recent memory in the US?

Let's also forget Google+ and Google Glass and all of the other fake innovations designed to distract from the imminent antitrust case.

Now you're just getting personal and that is, again, disappointing.